RCNYILWX Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Surprisingly, based on how ensembles have trended recently, the 12/30 (which is now in typically most reliable range of the model) monthly CFS run backed off the cool anomalies for January it had in its previous few daily runs. But not the all out torch it was showing several days ago. Not sure what to think, maybe if PNA northwest flow trajectories are more downslopish, western parts of sub get a bunch of days with near/slightly below normal 850/925 temps once we melt the snow/sleet, the dryness and sun will result in near to above normal highs. Overall doesn't appear to be an exciting pattern for winter prospects shaping up, unless downwind of the lakes, though wouldn't be surprised if a few as yet unmodeled clippers occur and as a few previous posts mentioned, maybe some better potential for eastern/southeastern parts of the sub. Hopefully the dry pattern doesn't lock in for the whole month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It sucks that the PNA is not doing us favors, but the turn to colder sort of snuck up on us (everyone was thinking mid-late Jan). Weve already had one nice snowstorm in Nov, had the big dog last year, and record snowstorminess the year before. I want snowstorms like anyone else, but honestly, after this abortion of a December I have to go with getting winter FIRST. Let the lakes and ponds start freezing and the ski resorts start to open. If other areas cash in more than us, so be it. Give me white ground and Ill be happy in the mean time. I will be disappointed if we get no more big snowstorms but that is a question that cant be answered for 4 more months. We went from torch in Nov to an instant crazy snowstorm, insane torch in Dec and then during our two seasonal days, we had a bit of snow. Usually you have to endure a handful of bitter cold winter days with no snow before you get the goods, we havent had that yet this year. With the torch on the way out, I couldnt be more happy. Plus our climo saves us when its cold and usually gives us SOME snow whereas not having to rely soley on a favorable storm track. NOW....if we are sitting here one month from now and theres been plenty of cold but almost no snow (which is possible but unlikely), then you will see my tune change drastically. I get the people who dont like "cold and dry", Im sure thats not really anyones preference anyway. Im about snow way more than cold, but you cant get snow without cold . You certainly know your SEMI winter patterns 12Z and 18Z have been hinting at a nice winter storm for Southern MI in Mid-January Yeah, hopeful it's sniffing more than glue on our behalf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I wouldn't say it's behind us yet. We might get a stretch of upper 30s to near 40 late next week. It's not a mega torch but it's probably going to AN. Yeah 30s to near 40 is definitely NOT a torch as he was saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Sure wouldn't mind a few sneaky C-1 LES events during the ZZZZ mode cool down for a little stat padding and chemical plows. At this point getting a few inches of frost into the ground would be a good step into the winter mode. If not, by mid month we'll all be shopping for a case or two of O'douls premium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The only reason upper 30's to 40F is on the table is because of the previous 60 days worth of warmth and lack of snow. Right now I'm sitting at 31F. If I had 18 inches of snow, it would be 20F. Above normal, breeds above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Surprisingly, based on how ensembles have trended recently, the 12/30 (which is now in typically most reliable range of the model) monthly CFS run backed off the cool anomalies for January it had in its previous few daily runs. But not the all out torch it was showing several days ago. Not sure what to think, maybe if PNA northwest flow trajectories are more downslopish, western parts of sub get a bunch of days with near/slightly below normal 850/925 temps once we melt the snow/sleet, the dryness and sun will result in near to above normal highs. Overall doesn't appear to be an exciting pattern for winter prospects shaping up, unless downwind of the lakes, though wouldn't be surprised if a few as yet unmodeled clippers occur and as a few previous posts mentioned, maybe some better potential for eastern/southeastern parts of the sub. Hopefully the dry pattern doesn't lock in for the whole month. This is what grosses me out, regardless of what the 2m temps are showing; dry, dry, dry. At least California is wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 well it's too much effort and too much of a fantasy-grade issue to post the maps, but the day 11 control on the EPS has a sweet low sitting over KY with a solid high over the lakes. 11 day eps control...that's what I've resorted to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 on the plus side, the cali drought is getting punched in the face.................... Got a loooooong way to go but it's a great start, no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Things can change but all things considered, pretty decent model/ensemble agreement on a low pressure in the Ohio Valley at day 9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Things can change but all things considered, pretty decent model/ensemble agreement on a low pressure in the Ohio Valley at day 9-10. Maybe 2. Looks like a west to east moving system along the Ohio River followed by a low coming from the TX/LA coast as arctic air is making its way into most of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Maybe 2. Looks like a west to east moving system along the Ohio River followed by a low coming from the TX/LA coast as arctic air is making its way into most of the subforum. 12z ECMWF coming in farther north with the first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I'll take a streak of sunshine. Its been way too cloudy lately for my likes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Grab a book, take up a hobby, it's gonna be awhile folks.... oh and happy new year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The 12Z GFS is trying to throw Michigan a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Grab a book, take up a hobby, it's gonna be awhile folks.... oh and happy new year! Those are actually very impressive amounts for the Flagstaff, AZ area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 on the bright side, there are several individual eps members that now show active snow storm tracks beyond day 11.... every place from lower great lakes to deep south and in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 on the bright side, there are several individual eps members that now show active snow storm tracks beyond day 11.... every place from lower great lakes to deep south and in between. That, and the trend to keep temperatures seasonably cold or at the worst a little above through mid month. I can't remember the last time our entire subform had an "average" look, let alone some blue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 EURO ensembles don't agree with a operational north track like that. Kind of have to agree with the EPS, given the teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 That, and the trend to keep temperatures seasonably cold or at the worst a little above through mid month. I can't remember the last time our entire subform had an "average" look, let alone some blue! How about all of last winter and the winter before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 How about all of last winter and the winter before? And this past Spring / start of Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 0z GFS is a little quicker with the 9-10 system which ends up mostly rain for IL/IN/OH before it transfers. The 11-12 storm will be the one to watch especially the east and south parts of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Nice to see models trending with a more negative -epo and less negative nao/less positive pna. They keep the PNA/NAO in the -1 to +1 range which is about as good as it gets for us while the EPO tanks. Could change back ( always have this worry when mjo heads into phase 8-1 ) so keep a eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 medium-range models and ensembles show a change to fairly strong negative AO and negative EPO. Perhaps a trough will set up in the Great Lakes and/or Northeast. The recent 12z ECMWF has quite a bit of cold air in the Midwest on day-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 looks truncated enhanced. reminds me of November. What does this even mean... I mean honestly that makes zero sense especially since the GFS doesn't truncate at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 What does this even mean... I mean honestly that makes zero sense especially since the GFS doesn't truncate at all... Speaking of that, do you happen to know the development details of the GFS now? Did they keep it in Fortran or transition over to a new language? I have a project I'm working on that relies on some of the original code structure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Speaking of that, do you happen to know the development details of the GFS now? Did they keep it in Fortran or transition over to a new language? I have a project I'm working on that relies on some of the original code structure... Unfortunately I don't know that, I am not too keen on the coding that goes into the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 This is the coldest look to the NAEFS that i've seen in a long time (i usually check it daily)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 This is the coldest look to the NAEFS that i've seen in a long time (i usually check it daily)... Since summer? I mean below normal isn't that uncommon, we just had 2 winters way below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Since summer? I mean below normal isn't that uncommon, we just had 2 winters way below normal. Yes...I can't remember when it had a cold look...its been awhile. Obviously it could revert back with the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Dark blues in the east and dark reds in the west is all we saw the past 2 winters. You hardly ever saw anything but red in the west, no matter what time of year. But now we haven't seen much red at all in the past 2 months or so. It still feels really, really weird. medium-range models and ensembles show a change to fairly strong negative AO and negative EPO. Perhaps a trough will set up in the Great Lakes and/or Northeast. The recent 12z ECMWF has quite a bit of cold air in the Midwest on day-10. Something worth watching in the long-term is the signal on CFS to shift the -OLR east around mid-month, and GEFS is showing a relatively strong signal for the Aleutian low to shift east. I'm not sure if Euro ensembles are catching on to the same thing. It's something worth watching though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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