Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 If it is going to be warm, let's smash records!!! No cold...no snow...let's do this! Nah...at least if it's cold there's a CHANCE it could snow. Plus I have 2 teenagers who've been ready to go skiing at Roundtop for a few weeks and are getting really antsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Looks like I'm going to top 70 even here in Tamaqua. It's 68 already on my backyard station! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Nah...at least if it's cold there's a CHANCE it could snow. Plus I have 2 teenagers who've been ready to go skiing at Roundtop for a few weeks and are getting really antsy. Mike I want cold and snow also but, if it's going to be warm might as well do it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 MDT broke its daily all-time high about an hour ago when it hit 64. There is a robin hanging out next to our blooming daffodils. Happy spring guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 One fascinating thing about today's record warmth is that it is accompanied with nearly calm winds! Usually, in the cold season, if we have an unusually warm day it is almost always windy to go along with the warmth. I see York hit 70 this afternoon. I'll bet that's quite a bit above the previous record for today for them. As Chris just noted it looks like MDT will max out with a new record broken by just one degree. Need to find out the previous record's year. I have my windows opened right now as it's 75 degrees inside and 66 degrees outside. We're all going to be in shock when we have one day with normal temps around 40 for the high next weekend! Alas, my hopes for a white Christmas seem to be fading with each successive GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Record high for today was 60. Smashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Made it to 69 degrees here today. It just couldn't go one higher for the 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Some weird, random temp fluctuations the last couple nights...can anyone explain? 12 21:54 NE 3 7.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN075 52 48 12 20:54 Calm 9.00 Overcast FEW039 OVC080 57 49 12 19:54 SW 3 9.00 Overcast BKN037 BKN047 OVC080 56 49 12 18:54 SE 3 5.00 Fog/Mist SCT038 OVC075 52 49 13 20:54 Vrbl 7 8.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN044 63 55 13 19:54 Calm 9.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN047 59 54 13 18:54 Calm 8.00 A Few Clouds FEW050 58 54 13 17:54 E 5 9.00 Fair CLR 62 55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 The current SPC mesoanalysis shows 850 mb temperatures near +15 deg C over south central PA. That has to be close to a record for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Current low for the day is 57...a +33 departure!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 The current SPC mesoanalysis shows 850 mb temperatures near +15 deg C over south central PA. That has to be close to a record for this time of year. That's gotta be about as high as it can possibly get this time of the year around here. We probably would be talking 70 or so in State College today if it had been a mainly clear day. I could only imagine how out of whack the departures for the month really would be at the central stations like UNV and AOO if we wouldn't have had Fogfest 2015 keeping temps fairly close to average for the better part of last week. Those few days leading up to Christmas are looking nearly as ridiculous with eastern warmth on the Euro/GFS right now. Closing in on the latest first snow in recorded history here in State College... think the record is 12/20? At least the rime ice this past week was pretty cool There's a chance that we can avoid breaking that record by a day or perhaps tying it. For "measurable" all you need is to record 0.1" and with the cold air that is slated to arrive at the end of the week I think there's a reasonable chance we can get some kind of passing snow shower that could put a stop to that futility. The shot of cold, while not overly impressive from a departure standpoint, is still progged to be a fairly sharp one delivering -10 to -15ºC 850 air over the commonwealth. That alone should figure to deliver some instability/upslope snow showers in C-PA. Not sure if wind trajectories are going to veer enough behind that frontal passage to point any LES action into the Laurels and adjacent central counties. Given the insane warmth we have had, the LES this weekend could be quite potent. NW counties could see some pretty significant accumulations. After this stint of seasonable weather over the weekend, it is becoming quite apparent that it will be brief and we will be returning to an above average regime in the several days leading up to Christmas. A rejuvenated +NAO/AO (AO currently forecast to spike up to +5!), a -PNA, and +EPO suggests that the overall troughiness and below average temps and storminess will center on the western half of the country. Adding the MJO forecast into the mix, all models have it running in at least phase 4 for a bit and some of the Euro/UKMET forecasts have it running through the full 4,5,6 circuit. Those are the phases that have very strong correlation to eastern US warmth. In short, it's an awful look. I said early last month that this winter has plenty of potential, but if things don't cooperate (specifically the Pac with the PNA and EPO).. we were going to easily get run over with warmth given so much + departures from the El Nino and even the rest of the Pacific in general (Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic along the East coast are also above average). We need that +PNA ridge and a weak or -EPO to promote a flow with a Canadian source region, especially in the absence of any consistent -NAO regime. Plenty of time to get this mess sorted out, but it's looking like December is going to go the way of November and we will be hoping for things to turn for Jan-Feb, but a later start to things has generally been the consensus for this winter anyways. I think the potential for a really big snowstorm or two is better than the last couple winters, but it needs to be cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Thanks as always for the input mag. I'll gladly trade some nice weather now for a couple of blockbuster chances later in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 MDT broke another record high, it hit 66 (1926 was record at 64). Wth zero sun, that's damn impressive. 10 years ago today MDT set its record levels of 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I just can't stop thinking that the Accuweather article from last week where they said that even if el nino fades out, it may take long enough for the pattern to shift as a result to completely shut us out. We're setting all kinds of inferno records. Isn't there a direct connection to a season where Philadelphia saw nothing? I wouldn't put any money on this but if you put a gun to my head right now and say "Guess the winter!" I'd say everyone south of I-90 with exception to the lake bands wind up closer to 5 inches for the season than ten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Winter cancel !!! It's never going to snow this season because it's soooo warm now !!! The CFS is the best model ever & will defeat the Euro,UKMET, Canadian & SST Analog model !!! it's going to be 97-98 all over again even though Nov/Dec was Cold in 97 and the current SST looks nothing like it right now !!!! Should I go on with more NONSENSE ?? !!! People need to get a grip & step back off the ledge! This time will pass, we just need to be patient. Hopefully the 2nd half of winter will be so good that it will make us forget about December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Let's keep the temp above 57 until the climo day ends - screw it, shoot the damn moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Just some more to chew on while we are litteraly and figuratively "sweatin this one out". http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/page-2? Don S. puts a TON of work/knowledge out there for us to read/learn from and is arguably one of my favorite posters (whether I like what I'm reading or not). Still alot of question as to where we go from here as the Nino on roids is starting its downward descent. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I love snow like the rest of you, but honestly i'm enjoying not running my heat or burning to much of my firewood. Having said that, after today i only work 1 more day then i'm off for 11 days, one of those days before Christmas, i'm going to mow the grass again. Crazy Chit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Meanwhile in Colorado...closing in on 10" for the day north of Denver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 This morning's 12Z GFS run has incredible warmth over us from 12/23 > early 12/25. It places the 20C 6M temp right over us at 1:00pm Christmas Eve afternoon. So we may still hit 70 degrees yet this month. Cold front comes through early Christmas morning dropping us back down to the upper 40's and then into the 20's for lows the following morning. I realize we're talking around 10 days out so it will likely change some but I've never seen such persistent warmth for December before. It seems likely this December will be top 10 and probably top 5. I just reviewed the climate info from MDT. After today MDT will have a monthly departure of +9.0 degrees. Atomix will have to tell us where this puts us records-wise. For the first 15 days of this month there have been no days recorded with a negative departure; one day was normal; three days with +1; the rest with more sizeable positive departures...and after today there will have been four out of 15 days with departures in excess of +20...with more to come. The high temp at MDT today occurred shortly after midnight with a reading of 62 which missed tying the record of 63 by just one degree. Had we tied we would have had 3 consecutive days with record daily maximum temps. Today's record last occurred in 2008, but also occurred back in 1927. Yesterday's record was last set back in the late 1920's. Those out there spouting off about climate change being the cause of this anomalous warmth, I would point out that it appears that some of the Decembers of the late 1920's were setting record warm temps. Food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Meanwhile in Colorado...closing in on 10" for the day north of Denver IMAG2260.jpg You know, I was thinking of posting something to the tune of looks like PennMan took winter with him whenever he moved to Colorado haha. How much do you have for the season so far? As nice as it is that it's been so warm, I'm tired of it. I'm ready for snow and hitting the slopes. It can be 60+ degrees any of the other 3 seasons of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 You know, I was thinking of posting something to the tune of looks like PennMan took winter with him whenever he moved to Colorado haha. How much do you have for the season so far? As nice as it is that it's been so warm, I'm tired of it. I'm ready for snow and hitting the slopes. It can be 60+ degrees any of the other 3 seasons of the year. They had a few storms in November before I moved, and then it was 55-70° the first week we were here. But we had 2-3" this weekend and then 10" today. Back up in the mid-upper 50s with sun by Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 They had a few storms in November before I moved, and then it was 55-70° the first week we were here. But we had 2-3" this weekend and then 10" today. Back up in the mid-upper 50s with sun by Saturday. As much as I'd love to live in Colorado, it seems like they have more variable temps w/ snow one day and gone the next. I guess when you get enough of it, it sticks around though. Looking at the ski resort cams has been fun as theyve had it for almost a month now, and it just keeps piling on. Enjoy it out there....and like Mag said..thanks for taking it with you . Didnt know that green taggers had that much pull w/ the weather gods . Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 This morning's 12Z GFS run has incredible warmth over us from 12/23 > early 12/25. It places the 20C 6M temp right over us at 1:00pm Christmas Eve afternoon. So we may still hit 70 degrees yet this month. Cold front comes through early Christmas morning dropping us back down to the upper 40's and then into the 20's for lows the following morning. I realize we're talking around 10 days out so it will likely change some but I've never seen such persistent warmth for December before. It seems likely this December will be top 10 and probably top 5. I just reviewed the climate info from MDT. After today MDT will have a monthly departure of +9.0 degrees. Atomix will have to tell us where this puts us records-wise. For the first 15 days of this month there have been no days recorded with a negative departure; one day was normal; three days with +1; the rest with more sizeable positive departures...and after today there will have been four out of 15 days with departures in excess of +20...with more to come. The high temp at MDT today occurred shortly after midnight with a reading of 62 which missed tying the record of 63 by just one degree. Had we tied we would have had 3 consecutive days with record daily maximum temps. Today's record last occurred in 2008, but also occurred back in 1927. Yesterday's record was last set back in the late 1920's. Those out there spouting off about climate change being the cause of this anomalous warmth, I would point out that it appears that some of the Decembers of the late 1920's were setting record warm temps. Food for thought. Top 10 Dec avg temp for Harrisburg on left for full month other than 2015 only though the 15th... on right all months since 1889 avg temp through the 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Wow the Euro lol, todays 12z out at the end of its range has ridiculous temperatures. Broad area of 15-20ºC (!!!) 850 temps that move into PA and 65 to low 70s for surface temps Christmas Day in the commonwealth. 75-80 in sections of KY, TN, WV. Absolutely insane if that comes anywhere close to fruition. I have noticed that the GFS and Euro have been diverging a bit the last couple runs. The GFS runs a system and a front through by Christmas day and having much different temps (close to seasonal). Euros sending an energy depth charge into the west and building our Christmas in July (or should I say July in Christmas) ridge in the east. GFS more progressive with it. I'm sure the answer lies somewhere in between, the Euros probably driving and holding into the western states too much. Oh, and the GFS has a fantasy range significant mid-atl snow storm... so that in itself is progress haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Wow the Euro lol, todays 12z out at the end of its range has ridiculous temperatures. Broad area of 15-20ºC (!!!) 850 temps that move into PA and 65 to low 70s for surface temps Christmas Day in the commonwealth. 75-80 in sections of KY, TN, WV. Absolutely insane if that comes anywhere close to fruition. I have noticed that the GFS and Euro have been diverging a bit the last couple runs. The GFS runs a system and a front through by Christmas day and having much different temps (close to seasonal). Euros sending an energy depth charge into the west and building our Christmas in July (or should I say July in Christmas) ridge in the east. GFS more progressive with it. I'm sure the answer lies somewhere in between, the Euros probably driving and holding into the western states too much. Oh, and the GFS has a fantasy range significant mid-atl snow storm... so that in itself is progress haha. When the GFS and ECM have been divergent lately...well, let's just say there's something America does not win at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 A f'n mosquito bit me on my walk after work. What the flying f, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 A f'n mosquito bit me on my walk after work. What the flying f, Yea, they're out like crazy again. I cant ever remember them out in december (granted our apartment area has a horrible problem with them in the summer) but ****...give us some cold to kill the ****ers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Yea, they're out like crazy again. I cant ever remember them out in december (granted our apartment area has a horrible problem with them in the summer) but ****...give us some cold to kill the ****ers I killed one in the house the other day that I was not expecting to see. I have spring flowers coming up and some others that survived the few frost mornings are thriving better now than they did over the summer... and here we are a few days from lowest sun angle and shortest day of the year! So strange... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 Probably going to be the mother of all torch / drought summers this year. WFOs will be handing out Excessive Heat Warnings like candy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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