MAG5035 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The wife and I are thinking of driving to Albany (well Saratoga Springs technically) Sunday morning and then back home Monday midday. Should we rethink our plans you think? We'd take 78 to NJ and not 81 to 84 fwiw. I would keep an eye on it but for it does look like the timing would have precip arriving just into PA by later Monday with this particular system, so you would probably be at least okay for traveling up there and mostly good coming back. I would also add the usual "it's several days away" disclaimer to this event as well. This system has otherwise been pretty consistently advertised on the models. It looks like it'll be the one to finally beat back this ridiculous southeast ridge and return some more... typical weather around these parts for some amount of time. Strength and positioning of the high will be important in determining if we in fact see wintery precip. The Euro's take today was fairly impressive with the Canadian high, as well as the core of arctic cold it's residing over.. so to be honest I think it would be underestimating the strength of low level cold for C-PA in it's verbatim solution. It's modeled cut more to the western Great Lakes would actually be better for this area as the warm sector nose would drive up more strongly into the Ohio Valley. So we'll see, I think it's something to consider as a potential issue early next week. I do think we will see some more typical weather settling in by New Years, and by typical I may not necessarily mean below normal..but enough that we could maybe set up for some kind of a snow event. As mentioned by blizzard92 a few posts up, there hasn't been much in the strat warming department to this point.. and I agree that the Atlantic doesn't look to cooperate (something I had also mentioned over a month ago with not expecting much NAO blocking help). The AO looks to drop but there is a lot of spread still. With all that said, I don't think we will see any significant shots of cold the first part of the month. Not to say it won't be cold, but not solidly below average cold. But if we have a PNA ridge that can stick for a least a little while, that opens the door to provide enough cold to pair with a well timed system. The writeup that I showed a part of and linked last night discussing the AO and the polar vortex expects that the polar vortex will begin to be perturbed this coming month.. starting with the forecast shift in the pattern with the PNA making a significant swing. A breakdown of the polar vortex in short would allow the pieces to be released into the mid-latitudes in the form of arctic cold shots with higher heights building over the pole. Although.. that doesn't alway guarantee we see it. The arctic could end up being dumped in some other part of the NH depending on the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 More proof that the avoca airport area does not represent climo for northeast Pa. as of yesterday Pleasant Mount Pa is running 7.5 degrees cooler than them and Hawley Pa about 5 degrees cooler this month while West Chester Pa is about the same temps this month as the avoca area! It represents exactly what it is supposed to: the climate of the valley cities. Whatever your bizarre hang up is, let it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The EPS mean out through day 15 had the best look so far this season. Out through day 15, the mean showed around 2 inches of snow in the southern tier of PA, and about 5 inches in the northern tier of PA. The best part is that over half of the 50 ensemble members showed a few inches of snow in our region. There were a few members that showed big hits that snow lovers dream of, but the vast majority showed a few iches. Hopefully the pattern change will continue to trend in the right direction as we head in to next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 It represents exactly what it is supposed to: the climate of the valley cities. Whatever your bizarre hang up is, let it go. ? (Sorry, Frozen kick lately...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 1.13" from today's rainfall. It was a bit more than I had expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Hit 62 between hours, but unless we get a last-minute surge, we're not going to be hitting today's record (64). Let's see what Christmas Eve brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Well, to continue the encouraging theme from earlier regarding next Monday/Tuesday's event, tonight's 0Z GFS actually gives us our first legitamate snowfall late monday evening into early Tuesday with what looks like upwards of 3" of snow for LSV and a bit more to the north. It mixes then goes over to light rain (esp southern areas) into Tuesday before tapering off, but not enough rain to wash away the accumulations. The transition into the storm is pretty dramatic with temps on Sunday into the 60's again before a pretty decent push of cold air drops southward directly on top of us with temps probably only in the upper 30's for highs on Monday before dropping to the upper 20's when the snow arrives Monday evening. GFS seems to catch on to the strength of the cold more so this run to follow the Euro's earlier colder depiction. Nearly a 30 degree drop for highs between Sun and Mon. Please, Santa, let it be so even if it comes 3 days late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Already tied for the record high today and running a +32 departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Man...is it it ever tough being a Warmanista on a board full of snow geese... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'm here Voyager lol, were winning so far, so no complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'm here Voyager lol, were winning so far, so no complaints. Awesome!!!! Although, I just noticed that CTP is starting to latch on to the idea of the possibility of some freezing/frozen Monday night. Here is my forecast for that time. Monday Night Rain or freezing rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Great stuff being discussed. Thanks for the good reads. So.. while the short/med term sound much more encouraging for at least some opps for us snow lovers, I'm trying to wrap my head around the sensible players that are going to be driving the snowtrain for the foreseeable future, With the stability of the PV (despite the ping pong balls being thrown at it), I'd think it fair to say that any SSW event appears unlikely in the short term (also with the realization that the lag time of any downwelling is 30 to 45 days from any such event)...so I'm guessing we just need to keep throwing ping pong balls at the basketball? Also with the recent uptick in the ENSO, I'm wondering how long and strong the warming can continue (as well as what analog years come into play), as I'd guess the sample size is probably somewhat small? Climo would argue that ENSO regions would have to start cooling soon (after the false peak in early Dec.). When they do start cooling, could it trickle down, or would a "bigger you are the harder you fall" scenario be likely? This one has me worried (and wondering if Eskimo's whistlblowing of winter back in Oct. actually has legs? (If so...he better hide his crystal ball...cause it will be worth $$$ ) As a regime change appears to be taking shape with the PNA trending +, and the AO headed neut, can these mechanisms be able to establish/sustain these values, or does NINO hold all of the Aces? Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'm here Voyager lol, were winning so far, so no complaints. Uhh....yeah....ya'll r killin it.....It's 65 deg at 6:00 am on Christmas Eve day.... Happy Holidays all the same! Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Uhh....yeah....ya'll r killin it.....It's 65 deg at 6:00 am on Christmas Eve day.... Happy Holidays all the same! Nut Happy Holidays to you and yours as well, nut! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 All /time high temp for today was 62. It's currently 67 and has been rising since midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Absolutely horrific. I will say this, though. The clouds make it bearable. At least It mildly looks like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Happy Holidays to you and yours as well, nut! RIght back at ya...as well as to the rest of my fellow Central Pa possey. We are a good bunch. screen doors been open since 5 am and its just crazy. Despite my dislike...it is impressive all the same. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Yeah, Merry Christmas to you and your families! This year's weather has sucked (not just winter, the summer was dead too) so here's to a more fun tracking 2016! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Happy Holidays and hope you guys get your snow! Just as long as it doesn't come with record cold temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'm going to get shot for posting this, but I can't resist... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 66 at 9am. Daily record already broken. T - 5 to the December record. May as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'm going to get shot for posting this, but I can't resist... Haaahhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 BANG... BANG BANG...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Those that love the warmth better enjoy it the next few days. The GFS, Canadian & Euro today are all trending colder with the system for Monday night & Tuesday am. The 1045 High looks strong & is in a great spot & is trending better now even on the 12z Euro. If this continues to trend in the right direction the next few days, it could be game on for our first winter event. Either way, tracking this sure beats the tropical pattern we have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The pattern ahead looks better than the last several months. I will be so glad to see this disgusting pattern gone. I hope everyone in central PA has a Merry Christmas and a snowy, cold New Year!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Just like a couple weeks ago, we fell just one degree short of 70. It looks like 69 is going to be the high for today here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Find something else to post about, dude, or go tell the NWS to stop reporting from Avoca or whatever. I live close to Pleasant Mount, just want to show it is colder and snowier because Avoca does seem to be much warmer than other locations in northeast pa, but I guess that is well known up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I live close to Pleasant Mount, just want to show it is colder and snowier because Avoca does seem to be much warmer than other locations in northeast pa, but I guess that is well known up here. You let us know all the time. Since it is so cold where your at how much snow have you received so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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