Central PA - Winter 2015-16 Disco

[NortheastPAWx]

Monday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 10.

Down to 8 here.

[r-ville]

I was out of town yesterday (Luzerne County, I don't think they have internet access yet LOL)

 

- did I miss anything?

 

Still liking my call for a major EC snowstorm during the second week of January.(refer to post of 12/25 on pg 11) Not a lead pipe cinch just yet, but way more exciting than anything this season - AND (for our region) last year, actually.

[Blizzard of 93]

Euro EPS 12z run looks GREAT for coastal storm next Sunday night.

The mean low is just off the coast of VA heading northeast to off the coast of New England by Monday am. DT just posted the map in the Mid Atlantic Jan. discussion. I looked at the individual low clusters & many would work for snow back here in CTP country. We can't ask anything more at this point than to have the best Model ensemble have a low location/track like this.

Lots of time to sort out details, but I like where things stand now for us.

The I-95 crowd may have to deal with mix/rain, but back here I think we are in a good spot for snow.

[MAG5035]

Euro EPS 12z run looks GREAT for coastal storm next Sunday night.

The mean low is just off the coast of VA heading northeast to off the coast of New England by Monday am. DT just posted the map in the Mid Atlantic Jan. discussion. I looked at the individual low clusters & many would work for snow back here in CTP country. We can't ask anything more at this point than to have the best Model ensemble have a low location/track like this.

Lots of time to sort out details, but I like where things stand now for us.

The I-95 crowd may have to deal with mix/rain, but back here I think we are in a good spot for snow.

 

Yea this period around the 9th-12th is certainly looking quite interesting and will likely deliver some kind of a decent storm..or two. Still a plethora of solutions and tracks. Starting to lean towards two individual waves on most major guidance with the first one on the 9th and second one on the 11th. I would hope that we get a notable second system over everything coming out at once with the first system cuz this early one is probably destined for the lakes. Even if we end up with a redeveloping miller B scenario there won't be enough cold in place as temps moderate to near or slightly above normal after the brief and biting cold shot we will receive tomorrow and Tuesday. So not really high on the potential for much out of the first one.. I warned in my last lengthy post several days ago that we would still be vulnerable to a warm system and/or cutter this week while the MJO traverses phase 7 and other things continue to work on transitioning to a much better regime pattern and teleconnection wise.

 

At any rate, cold air will return in the wake of whatever this first system ends up being and will set the stage for a second wave to run up the coast in some fashion. The GFS has had many takes on both systems as of late, today's has a Miller B for the first system and a second system well southeast. European op runs a deep apps runner for the second system, EPS control run has a deep and significant coastal for the Philly-NYC 95 corridor and all New England. CMC has weaker miller A coming out. The verdict isn't even close to being in with this, but there is likely to be some action to be had by this time next weekend. 

 

Overall, I don't see any reason to be any kind of eternal winter weather pessimist with regards to the pattern potential as we get to mid month and beyond. If we get a good coastal pattern going with an active southern stream, there's going to be a lot of heat to tap into the anomalously warm waters of the Atlantic and Gulf Stream.

[canderson]

The 11th storm is mine. I called it if it happens!

[Atomixwx]

And if it's a cold rain? You good with getting credit for that?

[canderson]

And if it's a cold rain? You good with getting credit for that?

Ride or die.

[Atomixwx]

 

Ride or die.

Word up.

[NortheastPAWx]

EPS control run has a deep and significant coastal for the Philly-NYC 95 corridor and all New England,

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like cold rainers for those east of I-81.  Bah.  Calling it now, shutdown for DCA / IAD / BWI.  LNS / MDT / THV get less than 10" of snow.

[Atomixwx]

Looks like cold rainers for those east of I-81.  Bah.  Calling it now, shutdown for DCA / IAD / BWI.  LNS / MDT / THV get less than 10" of snow.

 

Care to flex that Pro Forecaster tag of yours and actually explain why you think this?

 

Because I can regurgitate the exact same sentence to whomever you're employed by and ask them to pay me what they pay you...

[Blizzard of 93]

I recall the Euro EPS being outstanding the last 2 winters with storm tracks.

The GFS will show a bunch of out to sea tracks, which plays to its progressive bias. The Canadian will show crazy solutions. The Euro Op will be too wound up & show some cutters. My advice is Don't waste much time looking at other models besides the EPS until we are about 4 days out.

We are now about 1 week out. Watch the other models & forecasters (someone has actually made their Final forecast of rain !)

waffle & flop back & forth, while the EPS is steady. It should be a very interesting week of tracking to say the least.

[NortheastPAWx]

Looks like cold rainers for those east of I-81.  Bah.  Calling it now, shutdown for DCA / IAD / BWI.  LNS / MDT / THV get less than 10" of snow.

On the heels of MAG's post, this is just lulz.

[pasnownut]

On the heels of MAG's post, this is just lulz.

We all have ignore buttons...

 

or just dont feed his little one line frenzy.  Its becoming more obvious that his intent is to stir up and add nothing.  

 

I wish there was a color tag for trolls.....

 

Now back to the talk of storms....

 

Thanks for the update Mag.  We all knew that next week and beyond has been touted as the time of better potential, so some of these may help to "set the table" for that period.  Just to be talking about the potential is refreshing to say the least.  It's good to hear that the pattern shift is well underway, but we need to be patient...despite our desire for snow.  Also, remember the normal biases when mulling over all of the "poof its gone" posts in the coming days.  We often lose em inside of 120hrs only to have them come back at 72hrs (ish).  We've all seen this dance before, so this is just a friendly reminder to "stay away from the ledge."  First one is likely not ours anyway.  Looking forward to trackin em once again.

 

Nut

[Atomixwx]

We all have ignore buttons...

 

But we shouldn't have to use them on anybody who has a colored tag. Trolls are a harsh reality of the internet, but the folks that run this forum (not our subforum, but the entire website) should consider banning red, yellow and green tags that engage in this type of activity.

[heavy_wx]

With the potential system around the 9th, the primary looks to track over the central/western Great Lakes region. A secondary trough or perhaps a weak low is forecast by most guidance to develop off the coast of New England, resulting from cold air damming over central PA and warm air offshore of the coast. At the moment, it looks like this system has a low chance of producing snow in central PA given the position of the primary low, the lack of a cold antecedent airmass, and a mid-level trough that isn't completely in phase (with respect to ideal baroclinic wave growth) with the secondary trough developing at the surface. Guidance forecasts do suggest the potential for maybe some freezing rain or sleet.

 

I recall the Euro EPS being outstanding the last 2 winters with storm tracks.
The GFS will show a bunch of out to sea tracks, which plays to its progressive bias. The Canadian will show crazy solutions. The Euro Op will be too wound up & show some cutters. My advice is Don't waste much time looking at other models besides the EPS until we are about 4 days out.
We are now about 1 week out. Watch the other models & forecasters (someone has actually made their Final forecast of rain !)
waffle & flop back & forth, while the EPS is steady. It should be a very interesting week of tracking to say the least.

 

Are you referring to the control run or the ensemble mean of the EPS? The control run will likely shift around just as much as any other deterministic solution at this lead time. The ensemble mean will likely be more accurate with the eventual track, though it may misrepresent the true probability distribution of solutions (i.e. if there is a cluster of solutions over the great lakes and another cluster off the coast, those solutions may be more likely than the ensemble mean track that is in between them).

[pasnownut]

Thx Heavy.  I typically follow ensemble guidance until inside 48-72 as many storms are only hitting the Pac coast.  especially in times of transition.  If we are in a stable pattern, I'd look a little more deeply at Op runs.  Do you agree w/ this (generally speaking of course)?

 

Nut

[heavy_wx]

Thx Heavy.  I typically follow ensemble guidance until inside 48-72 as many storms are only hitting the Pac coast.  especially in times of transition.  If we are in a stable pattern, I'd look a little more deeply at Op runs.  Do you agree w/ this (generally speaking of course)?

 

Nut

 

I would agree, though even patterns with stable longwave features can have shortwave disturbances that amplify rapidly if conditions are favorable.

 

I think it's the exception not the rule for there to be little spread in model guidance 72+ hours before a significant storm in this part of the country.

[pasnownut]

I would agree, though even patterns with stable longwave features can have shortwave disturbances that amplify rapidly if conditions are favorable.

 

I think it's the exception not the rule for there to be little spread in model guidance 72+ hours before a significant storm in this part of the country.

Understood.  Regarding the next few events, i guess i just don't see multiple shortwaves rounding the base of a trough.  Hopefully in the coming weeks that becomes something to look for.  To my untrained eye, were not there yet.  

 

Keep us posted and thanks for the insight.

 

Nut

[Eskimo Joe]

This will probably be my last AmWx post for awhile, unless things change substantially in the weather department.  Before I head off, I wanted to clarify my bearish stance on the much anticipated (IMO, over hyped) cold shot over the next two weeks.  

 

Wes Junker and the KU Books show that for Central PA to get a good snowstorm (12"+), we need to have a solid -NAO / -AO in place which we have...for now.  but if you take a look at the below graphs from the CPC both the NAO and AO will not remain in negative territory for long.  By the 16th of January, just two weeks from now, there is a shotgun spread showing both indicies marching right back up to neutral if not slightly above.

 

During this cold snap, we need to have a solid antecedent air mass of cold air.  By this time of the year, there traditionally is a respectable ice cover over the Great Lakes, which mitigates any modification of cP air that rushes south.  This year, however, we see that every lake is nearly ice free.  This will bode well for the ski resorts and lake effect counties, but for the big cities and locations near the fall line this modification of cP air is not your friend.  

 

So take my rant for what it's worth.  I suspect tat if we hadn't torched so hard in November or January this air mass change wouldn't be as big a deal but everyone is snow starved.  

[canderson]

The issue with that is a "good snowstorm" isn't 12"+. That's a blizzard. A good snowstorm is anything 4"+ for us here.

 

Speaking of snow, nice little snow shower outside here right now.

[sauss06]

The issue with that is a "good snowstorm" isn't 12"+. That's a blizzard. A good snowstorm is anything 4"+ for us here.

 

Speaking of snow, nice little snow shower outside here right now.

i gassed up the blower

[pasnownut]

The issue with that is a "good snowstorm" isn't 12"+. That's a blizzard. A good snowstorm is anything 4"+ for us here.

 

Speaking of snow, nice little snow shower outside here right now.

If I (and if i may assume - we) were only interested in 12+'' storms, the ledge would be empty cause many would have jumped long ago. I think based off past observations that many in this subforum that participate at this time of year...enjoy snow....surely at varying degrees/frequencies, but we enjoy tracking it.  If Eskimo would post more posts like what he did above (not that we like what he said, but he offers reasoning, that's all good IMO.  Sometimes the truth hurts)

 

Regardless...the patter IS changing and opportunities will be there.  NINO has peaked (see Don S. update), and better (maybe not great...but better times are coming.  If we can play w/ -AO and bouts of neut/- NAO in addition to the +PNA that seems likely...we'll have some opps for white gold.  SSW possible in lat Jan, (with 30 dayish lag time could help the back end of winter for us.  Don feels several attempts at disrupting the PV will also help to dislodge some cold.  

 

Nut

[Wmsptwx]

Heck I'd take a heavy rainstorm at this point, just a notable weather event to track.

[Eskimo Joe]

Last post for sure...my thoughts reflect the concerns of my employer, a DC Metro Emergency Management office.  We get concerned with specific weather events that have a long lasting impact to the county or region.  Snow is a perfect example, our FEMA criteria for a Federal declaration is now 25" or more since the 2010 winter.  Unless if we are about to experience another Jan 26, 2011 event, we don't need to get involved with storms less than 20 - 25"...it's a DOT/Fire/State Highway show.  We have to account for ever penny of OT pay, meals, increased electricity cost at our OPS Center and budgets are tight down here.  So forgive my now jaded stance on almost every weather event.  I'm a go big or go home guy from here on out.  Not bashing or being snarky, just attempting to add some context.

[Wmsptwx]

Last post for sure...my thoughts reflect the concerns of my employer, a DC Metro Emergency Management office. We get concerned with specific weather events that have a long lasting impact to the county or region. Snow is a perfect example, our FEMA criteria for a Federal declaration is now 25" or more since the 2010 winter. Unless if we are about to experience another Jan 26, 2011 event, we don't need to get involved with storms less than 20 - 25"...it's a DOT/Fire/State Highway show. We have to account for ever penny of OT pay, meals, increased electricity cost at our OPS Center and budgets are tight down here. So forgive my now jaded stance on almost every weather event. I'm a go big or go home guy from here on out. Not bashing or being snarky, just attempting to add some context.

Dude I agree, I love severe weather and heavy rain events, but piling up stats with 2 or 3 inch snows just isn't my thing. Most here love snow in any form or how it comes so I post way less to not be a wet blanket.

[Atomixwx]

I won't take back what I've said but sincerely, thank you, Eskimo Joe. I'm sure we all greatly appreciate the very informative presentation. I appreciate the value thay comes with education, no matter how much the message may suck.

Doctor: You have cancer. It's developed along your spinal column and has spread to your lungs. It's terminal

AtomixWx: That sucks, but I appreciate the knowledge,

[Rick G]

I won't take back what I've said but sincerely, thank you, Eskimo Joe. I'm sure we all greatly appreciate the very informative presentation. I appreciate the value thay comes with education, no matter how much the message may suck.

Doctor: You have cancer. It's developed along your spinal column and has spread to your lungs. It's terminal

AtomixWx: That sucks, but I appreciate the knowledge,

 

 

exact scenario that  a friend is going through.  I appreciate the knowledge that people share here. I am a computer guy, I can  find just about anything on the interwebs but that doesn't help me understand it.

[djr5001]

  

Ah my bad, I misunderstood. Yeah no snow but it was at least cold! Today feels a bit like winter. The next few days will be nice before the brief warmup.

Anyone know the latest MDT recorded its first snowfall?

Just getting caught up but quick look maybe January 22, 2007 for measuring .1" or greater ?

 

Thought initially it was January 28, 1928 but .4" was recorded November 8, 1927 with nothing more than a trace until then!

[MAG5035]

Just getting caught up but quick look maybe January 22, 2007 for measuring .1" or greater ?

 

Thought initially it was January 28, 1928 but .4" was recorded November 8, 1927 with nothing more than a trace until then!

Bringing up a post from Dec 9th, as CTP had shared a graphic that day show latest trace and 1 inch snowfall. The crappy 94/95 winter is well represented in that graphic as is the 06-07 winter. UNV didn't have an inch of snowfall until January 29th in 2007.

 

Then there's York's latest inch of snow, the 22nd of February in 1993...as in the 92/93 winter. I thought that stat was pretty wild. 

 

Here's a bit more perspective, as CTP shared this graphic on their Facebook page today. I had mentioned 06-07 in a post a couple days ago, and 07 makes a couple appearances in that. I hadn't realized State College recorded their latest ever inch of snow that winter all the way on Jan 29th. But yes, we are at a slow start this winter. We were just about in the same boat in December last winter except that we had a cold November and early snow. But we got quite a ways to go to approach some of those records. 

 

Also interesting, check out the year of the record latest inch of snow at York. They didn't record an inch of snow in the 92/93 winter until Feb 22! It's amazing how one (or two if you were far enough in central PA) gigantic storm(s) can turn ones perspective of a winter. 

 

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