pasnownut Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Sounds like the overnight runs continue to advertise a nice reversal to conditions more typical for January. +PNA, NAO headed neutral, AO going- all sound likely right now and the ensembles are in decent agreement. While that may not translate into feet and feet of snow, opportunities should arise and become more frequent. A stepdown in temps looks likely through the rest of the week as well. Thank God. Hope everyone is enjoying the holidays. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Might be done...maybe... Looks like we'll end up with almost an inch as I'm currently at 0.92". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Rain keeps reforming over my location. Up to 0.70" for the event. Lol I notice it does this for rain, but in a snow event the dryslot zips right in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Lol I notice it does this for rain, but in a snow event the dryslot zips right in. So true... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Dry slots are mainly for wound up systems - this over running event not the same animal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Hey Chris... Tonight's 0Z says snowstorm here on the 10th. You're only one day late with your prediction. Models earlier today showed first widespread -20's at 850 over the Midwest. Things are beginning to look up. Even the warm up for the middle of next week looks a little less potent tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Hey Chris... Tonight's 0Z says snowstorm here on the 10th. You're only one day late with your prediction. Models earlier today showed first widespread -20's at 850 over the Midwest. Things are beginning to look up. Even the warm up for the middle of next week looks a little less potent tonight. Everything is tanking, the MJO is rising and the Nino looks to be weakening all around that timeframe. Someone is getting a storm in PA, just depends where and what type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Hey Chris... Tonight's 0Z says snowstorm here on the 10th. You're only one day late with your prediction. Models earlier today showed first widespread -20's at 850 over the Midwest. Things are beginning to look up. Even the warm up for the middle of next week looks a little less potent tonight. A warmup to the mid 40's for a couple days is highly acceptabe....comparing to where we've been IMO. this drastic flip was discussed by a few, and it is really strange to see how just over a week ago, very little support for it on them models...and now, the stars seem to be magically aligning for us that like cold/snow. for those that saw it coming...i'd like to look into their crystal ball(s) . Im hoping the SSW event that is likely in the next few weeks helps to keep the backside of winter cranking as well (if memory serves there is a 30-45 day lag time to it being realized on our backyard thermometers. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 12z GFS has a low of 9 next Tuesday morning. Hello Winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Everything is tanking, the MJO is rising and the Nino looks to be weakening all around that timeframe. Someone is getting a storm in PA, just depends where and what type. Teleconnections are certainly forecast to continue to be look more and more favorable across the board, with the PNA remaining solidly positive, the AO taking a significant dive into negative territory, the EPO turning negative (with the WPO, or West Pacific Oscillation, potentially heading that way). The NAO is also forecast to neutralize or even become slightly negative. Overall, we're well on our way to reversing course to a pattern that favors plus height anomalies at the poles and minus height anomalies at the mid-latitudes. The MJO (currently in phase 7) is generally forecast to head and get into phase 8 with a couple of the Euro variations forecasting it running 8,1, and 2 to some degree... which are the good phases as you'll see with the temp departure map. One can note the current phase we're in can still be a relatively mild one in the east.. albeit with less correspondence than you see with the blazing 4,5,6. Phase 8 and 1 tropical forcing also can correspond to a more active southern jet across the US and potentially some increased storm chances for us. For now and through the next week or so, it's likely the cold we see will be seasonal but not overly extreme.. and we could still be vulnerable to a system that ends up cutting or a bit too warm. But overall the look is a heck of a lot better and should get better towards mid-month. Hopefully we can pull a 2006-2007 kind of turnaround...but it did take awhile into January that winter to get things going after it cooled off. This nino is obviously a lot stronger than that one, and the Atlantic and Gulf are much warmer this winter.. so there is a ton of heat and moisture available if we get into an active southern stream pattern and a more favorable look for the eastern US with available cold. Look what has happened with the clash in the midwest and south central states in the last several days with the historic flooding on the Mississippi in MO, the tornadoes and extreme winter weather in TX, etc. Lots of potential for snowstorms, but also disappointment if things don't quite come together. MJO phases for DJF MJO forecast with Euro shown: Teleconnection forecasts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Teleconnections are certainly forecast to continue to be look more and more favorable across the board, with the PNA remaining solidly positive, the AO taking a significant dive into negative territory, the EPO turning negative (with the WPO, or West Pacific Oscillation, potentially heading that way). The NAO is also forecast to neutralize or even become slightly negative. Overall, we're well on our way to reversing course to a pattern that favors plus height anomalies at the poles and minus height anomalies at the mid-latitudes. The MJO (currently in phase 7) is generally forecast to head and get into phase 8 with a couple of the Euro variations forecasting it running 8,1, and 2 to some degree... which are the good phases as you'll see with the temp departure map. One can note the current phase we're in can still be a relatively mild one in the east.. albeit with less correspondence than you see with the blazing 4,5,6. Phase 8 and 1 tropical forcing also can correspond to a more active southern jet across the US and potentially some increased storm chances for us. For now and through the next week or so, it's likely the cold we see will be seasonal but not overly extreme.. and we could still be vulnerable to a system that ends up cutting or a bit too warm. But overall the look is a heck of a lot better and should get better towards mid-month. Hopefully we can pull a 2006-2007 kind of turnaround...but it did take awhile into January that winter to get things going after it cooled off. This nino is obviously a lot stronger than that one, and the Atlantic and Gulf are much warmer this winter.. so there is a ton of heat and moisture available if we get into an active southern stream pattern and a more favorable look for the eastern US with available cold. Look what has happened with the clash in the midwest and south central states in the last several days with the historic flooding on the Mississippi in MO, the tornadoes and extreme winter weather in TX, etc. Lots of potential for snowstorms, but also disappointment if things don't quite come together. MJO phases for DJF combined_image.png MJO forecast with Euro shown: ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif Teleconnection forecasts: 4panel.png Timing, timing, timing. You make very good points, esp. about the recent event corollary. We shall see some whiffs, near misses, too weak one stream or the other.. Yes,the big storm idea is out there. As with Figure 8 racing, at some point all things meet and all heck breaks loose. Having said that, I'll settle for the next 5 days of sunshine at this point. A more dreary month I have a hard time remembering. BTW - many parts of Euro are actually experiencing these extreme warm and wet anom's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Thanks for the updates. It looks like the pattern change is still looking favorable as most telleconnections are pointing in the right direction. One question when looking at the MJO plots..as we are looking to go into 8/1, it also looks like we are close to the COD. As I'm still learning this, am I correct in the assumption that the closer to the COD, the lesser the magnitude of forcing in said area? If so, would that potentially imply uncertainty as to how strong the forcing may be? I've tried to get an understanding through web searches, but was hoping someone might have further insight? thanks Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Nice write up Mag! Think we're all ready to move into the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 You people are depressing me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 You people are depressing me... Speaking of depressing, I don't recall the last time the sun's been out around here. As warm as it's been i'm pretty sure it's been at least 7 days since there's been any meaningful sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Reminder - winter did not really get going here last year until well into January. Nothing compares to this year, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 With winters late start last year, I think it fair to say that some of us were hoping for an early/normal start to it. While Dec. is often a low snow month, we still flirt w/ opportunity. I wish we could just have a "normal" winter, and not extremes. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 You people are depressing me... You know what was depressing? A low deck of clouds and 70 degree temperatures the entire Holiday season. People get depressed during Christmas over enough crap, the weather damn-near drove me off the George Wade Bridge. So, in the words of Arnold Schwarzenegger, "SHUT UP!" With winters late start last year, I think it fair to say that some of us were hoping for an early/normal start to it. While Dec. is often a low snow month, we still flirt w/ opportunity. I wish we could just have a "normal" winter, and not extremes. Nut I think in some way we were spoiled by the epic cold we've dealt with the last two winters. Last year started late but ended damn cold but I believe 2013-2014, it got cold in Mid-November and never warmed until March. If the temperatures this last month weren't shattering record highs, I don't think the rage many of us have felt would have existed. We're used to winter starting 2-3 weeks after Solstice. And I don't think I've ever looked at a 10-day, saw a high of 47 in January and been so thrilled about it because it's significantly colder than it has been for so, so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Speaking of depressing, I don't recall the last time the sun's been out around here. As warm as it's been i'm pretty sure it's been at least 7 days since there's been any meaningful sunshine. I know the fog we had the last two days was awful. Somehow, we did manage a few hours of sun on Christmas Day and also on Monday morning, but that was it. You know what was depressing? A low deck of clouds and 70 degree temperatures the entire Holiday season. People get depressed during Christmas over enough crap, the weather damn-near drove me off the George Wade Bridge. So, in the words of Arnold Schwarzenegger, "SHUT UP!" I knew someone would say it... I've got to say though, that the love of winter cold and snow seems to be unique to this board, because a lot of the people that I know would gladly take a winter of overcast skies if it meant warm temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Yesterday just plain sucked, It couldn't have been more dreary. And i don't think the fog lifted all day here did it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Yesterday just plain sucked, It couldn't have been more dreary. And i don't think the fog lifted all day here did it? Nope...very dreary day. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The EPS at 0z had its best run of the winter for snow potential. Most of the action takes place between day 10-15, but the drum beat toward winter weather Is increasing each run. Over half of the ensemble members show over 3 inches of snow for All of CTP. In fact, the 2 inch + blue line is now as far south as DC by the end of the run, which is something I haven't seen yet this season. The control run also looked good for snow by day 11-12. Finally, the light at the end of the tunnel is getting closer for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Reminder - winter did not really get going here last year until well into January. Nothing compares to this year, but still.Wat what? We had snow on the ground from Thanksgiving to April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Wat what? We had snow on the ground from Thanksgiving to April. I think he meant that most of snow fell from late January onward last year. Yes, we had a few inches in the LSV around Thanksgiving. Then we got a lucky 2 inches of wrap-around snow near Dec. 10th. But then we went about a month with No snow until a clipper hit around Jan. 10th. MDT only had around 5 inches total at the end of Dec. last year. About 30 inches of the almost 40 inch seasonal total fell in a 6 week period from late Jan to the first 2 weeks of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I think he meant that most of snow fell from late January onward last year. Yes, we had a few inches in the LSV around Thanksgiving. Then we got a lucky 2 inches of wrap-around snow near Dec. 10th. But then we went about a month with No snow until a clipper hit around Jan. 10th. MDT only had around 5 inches total at the end of Dec. last year. About 30 inches of the almost 40 inch seasonal total fell in a 6 week period from late Jan to the first 2 weeks of March. thats what my records show, 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 David Tolleris is losing his f'n mind right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 David Tolleris is losing his f'n mind right now. Why and where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Why and where? He usually pops into the mid atlantic forum when hes WOOFIN, or ready to fire shots at anyone that cant see what he does. Good met, but man he has a big ego....gets in the way of some good skills he has IMO. Still enjoy his reads as he does "throw himself out there". Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 He usually pops into the mid atlantic forum when hes WOOFIN, or ready to fire shots at anyone that cant see what he does. Good met, but man he has a big ego....gets in the way of some good skills he has IMO. Still enjoy his reads as he does "throw himself out there". Nut I popped over there and DT has a woof thread going. Just wait until he sees this post... hey man, nice use of the red font, but you can't know what's going to happen two weeks away right now. unless you are some type of wizard. an average monkey could say, "it's going to snow in one of those places in january" and be rightso man, you are either a wizard or a monkey, or both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Yes - my earlier post was referencing that most of the snow (and extreme cold) was later in Jan into Feb (and March). Sorry for any confusion. And December was "warmish" - again, not comparable to the torch. http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=ctp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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