Atomixwx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Shots fired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I'm sure all of the bridge jumpers will be on here saying they saw it coming the whole time when we get our first winter storm warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 It looks like DT is fired up for the pattern Change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Anyone that can't see the pattern is changing in big way over the next few weeks is blind and should find a different career or hobby. Eskimo Joe Posted 14 October 2015 - 09:44 AM I'm punting on Winter 2015-16. I find it funny how MANY respected mets/hobbyists have been seeing the signs, (and have spelled out in various levels of detail), as to how and why a pattern change is looming...for almost a week now (see Tip/Iso/Mag/DonS/DJR/ORH/BobChill/Usedtobe/40/70). That's not cherrypicking...they are just some of the respected/talented folks that I follow..good or bad. When they say it looks bad...it's usually bad...no two ways about it...you can't polish a turd...). It takes no degree...just an understanding of the indices, and the implications thereof, to see it surely is a pattern change. Whether or not it translates to snow in many of our backyards or not remains to be seen, but PNA going from - to +, AO going from + to -, and normal Nino climo alone is surely enough to warrant concern if you cancelled winter over 2 months ago (but in fairness for different reasons). Not sure why anyone who knows what they're doing and has been around long enough would do such a thing. H@ll I largely don't know what I'm doing comparatively speaking...but to speak in absolutes in this business.... I'm not bashing, but when someone is hanging onto something they put out and looking for reasons to be right...that's not fair to those who put alot of info/reasoning here on a frequent basis...right or wrong. Just takes away from credibility. Were all wrong once in a while....sorry but just sayin I'm anxious to see the changes taking place in the next few days, and despite how it translates to our neck of the woods, I'm glad to be headed where we are. Hope Santa was good to everyone... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Eskimo Joe Posted 14 October 2015 - 09:44 AM I'm punting on Winter 2015-16. I find it funny how MANY respected mets/hobbyists have been seeing the signs, (and have spelled out in various levels of detail), as to how and why a pattern change is looming...for almost a week now (see Tip/Iso/Mag/DonS/DJR/ORH/BobChill/Usedtobe/40/70). That's not cherrypicking...they are just some of the respected/talented folks that I follow..good or bad. When they say it looks bad...it's usually bad...no two ways about it...you can't polish a turd...). It takes no degree...just an understanding of the indices, and the implications thereof, to see it surely is a pattern change. Whether or not it translates to snow in many of our backyards or not remains to be seen, but PNA going from - to +, AO going from + to -, and normal Nino climo alone is surely enough to warrant concern if you cancelled winter over 2 months ago (but in fairness for different reasons). Not sure why anyone who knows what they're doing and has been around long enough would do such a thing. H@ll I largely don't know what I'm doing comparatively speaking...but to speak in absolutes in this business.... I'm not bashing, but when someone is hanging onto something they put out and looking for reasons to be right...that's not fair to those who put alot of info/reasoning here on a frequent basis...right or wrong. Just takes away from credibility. Were all wrong once in a while....sorry but just sayin I'm anxious to see the changes taking place in the next few days, and despite how it translates to our neck of the woods, I'm glad to be headed where we are. Hope Santa was good to everyone... Nut Bravo!!! and AMEN!!!! My sentiments exactly!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (Did I use enough exclamation points to make my point?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Check out El Paso, TX this morning...wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Check out El Paso, TX this morning...wow! IH-10 @ Lee Trevino_ELP.JPG And its 80 at my parents'at the other end of Texas, with a moderate tornado risk today and those deadly ones last night. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 So it's looking like we may have quite a few hours of the mixed bag tomorrow night into Tuesday morning. Usually the events are prolonged around these parts due to cold air damming but since the cold air is being swept in from the front, would it be cold air ramming? #boooooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Yeah, unfortunately tomorrow doesn't look like anything of substance until you get into the Dacks and points north/northeast. At least there will be snow east of the Mississippi...which is a start Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The PNA region seems to want to hold on very strongly, but it's axis crest is negatively oriented. This would disfavor any shortwaves that may be available to dig upstream. The lack of blocking downstream is the worst fly in the ointment and will be equally stubborn to change in the near term. There is an indicator, via the GEFS in their Long Range, that some change could be in the offing in the downstream sector, whilst the PNA region still cooperates in the main. Meanwhile the Atlantic Ridge is either Central based or a tick east (depending on model of course) But a much less influential southeast ridge (at H5) can only help. Patience has been the watchword this winter, since back in November, actually. All that latent Nino heat has to be assimilated and distributed obviously. Only a displacement or split of the PV would become enough of an offset. Winter may turn out short lived, but I'm betting that it will be felt for long enough to please most. After all, the components to a major storm (which could eliminate in one fell swoop, any negative departures previous to that) are available - it's a matter of timing thereafter. R-ville UPDATE EDIT Just updating a few things... The ridge axis via the GEFS is a bit too negatively tilted to allow for substantial digging on its lee edge - thus, at this point at least, the Op runs don't manifest the potential. The indexes are aligning - still a matter of timing. There is also support for storminess centering on 1/10/16 time period, via the Bering Sea Rule and other lesser known indexes. Watching for the Scandinavian Ridge to re-align for help in the NAO region and we could be game on. Last but not least - the PA Farm Show Rule would be in effect for this time period as well - just to add a bit of fun mythology into the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greensnow Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 First of the year out of BGM for Scranton Metro. Not expecting much. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 243 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 NYZ022-024-PAZ038-043-044-047-280345- /O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0014.151228T2300Z-151229T1500Z/ STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORNING...GIBSON...HORNELL...BATH... CAMERON...NORTH CAMERON...WEST CAMERON...ELMIRA...COWLEY... LEONA...SPRINGFIELD...TROY...MOSHERVILLE...BEAUMONT... KASSON BROOK...NOXEN...RUGGLES...STULL...CENTER MORELAND... ALDOVIN...SCRANTON...WEST SCRANTON...HUDSON...MINERS MILLS... PARSONS...PLAINS...WILKES-BARRE...HAZLETON...JEANESVILLE 243 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HAZARDOUS COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Looks like I'm not the only one finding interest in this time pd for our part of the world. Just looked at the range of models in the period between the 5th and 6th of January. The Typhoon Rule states that the pattern over East Asia has a direct correlation with the Eastern CONUS in 6-10 days. So, I thought to myself...with my January 11th severe weather event call I had better take a gander out there to see what's up. [ 49 more words. ] http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1608 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Winter Weather Advisory is now posted for most of CTP for later today. Even though it's not snow, it will be nice to get a little winter weather To get things started as we step down in to the pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Precip is so delayed it may be plain rain for all of us by arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I have confirmed, Sleet in Northern Perry County, Juniata County and also Middletown in Dauphin County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Was at Dauphin Highlahds 45 mins ago and sleet there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Temp 31.4 DP 21 overcast. Feels like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Low level cold quite noticeable across Pennsylvania at this hour as CAD signature and evaporational cooling continues. It will likely be a messy night across northern areas, particularly in the Alleghany Plateau. Elsewhere, to the southeast, most areas will quickly turn over to plain rain as warm air aloft floods in. While one of the first winter events for the region, in the scheme of things this will be a very low-impact event for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 WWA canceled for Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lebanon, Perry. That was fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 WWA canceled for Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lebanon, Perry. That was fun. That can't be a good sign for how things are about to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Plain rain from the get go here. 32.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 That can't be a good sign for how things are about to go... My yellow roses will be happy they won't be iced over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Precip has been rather sparse with the bulk of the precip shield lifting up to our west so far, and not too much really developing in our neck of the woods. We'll eventually see the part of the main precip shield that precedes the frontal passage.. but that would also come with the significant southerly flow aloft, so any sleet in the central counties will probably be quite brief. Sleet will probably hang on longer in the north central.. but freezing rain will probably be the bigger deal. This really could've been quite an ice storm setup with the very strong high well positioned to our north but lack of antecedent cold and the bulk of the precip shield lifting west makes it more of a nuisance and localized type event. Dewpoints are still in the 20s in the central stations like JST/AOO/UNV/IPT so I would expect temps to fall to freezing or somewhat below at the onset of more steady precip, but icing is probably going to be relegated to elevated roadways/walkways/etc as well as trees. Not to mention more widespread areas of icing in general are probably going to be on the eastern side of the Allegheny front and the northern and central ridge tops, where higher elevations closer to the 925mb level will be colder... as 925 temps are running colder than surface temps currently per mesoanalysis. It's one of those events where you could be raining at 32 for awhile and not really have any ice while up on the one of the ridges it's 30-31 and it's just enough to see accrual on trees... and that comes down to having no preceding cold in place and a warm, unfrozen ground. Mesoanalysis 925mb temps: Mesoanalysis Surface temps: Sfc Wet Bulb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 All liquid here in Linglestown. Temperature has fallen a bit and now hovering around 38F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Pings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Calling it now. First snow at MDT will be Jan. 11. I smell a snowstorm then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Really raining here now. If onl it were 10 degrees colder throughout the column ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 ground is about 50% covered here, looks like sleet, still snowing a bit here. temp 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Pretty much ended up all rain here this eve, just not enough cold at the surface to do anything. Did have a check at a couple of the local ridges and didn't note any icing. I do know one thing, I cannot wait for Thursday to get here and for this god awful pattern to be out of here.. even if the coming normal chilly weather comes with a fairly dry pattern for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Rain keeps reforming over my location. Up to 0.70" for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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