Wmsptwx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I have a weird feeling LSV cashes in on a warning event late month. Just a hunch, nothing meteorologically sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I have a weird feeling LSV cashes in on a warning event late month. Just a hunch, nothing meteorologically sound. I have weird feeling too, especially when I hit my funny bone. This will be the winter that has a huge snow event. (93 or 96) but it most likely won't happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 DT has a map posted today for Sunday into Monday that shows mostly rain changing to snow at the end, with a possible 1-2 inches of snow for the LSV. For the rest of CTP north & west of the LSV, DT's map shows the first half of the event as rain, but then changing to snow with a few inches of snow possible. Yesterday, Joe Bastardi said he still liked the interior for this event, but didn't set any boundaries, only saying even possible for the big cities to change over to snow briefly at the end. This storm just needs to slow down or the cold needs to come in just a little more quickly. Just as in life, timing is everything ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Even if we don't see a flake with this one, the -AO & -NAO, along with the +PNA that is setting up for the next 2 weeks should bring something good our way. I would even be happy with a darn clipper at this point just to get us on the board with something small! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 DT has a map posted today for Sunday into Monday that shows mostly rain changing to snow at the end, with a possible 1-2 inches of snow for the LSV. For the rest of CTP north & west of the LSV, DT's map shows the first half of the event as rain, but then changing to snow with a few inches of snow possible. Yesterday, Joe Bastardi said he still liked the interior for this event, but didn't set any boundaries, only saying even possible for the big cities to change over to snow briefly at the end. This storm just needs to slow down or the cold needs to come in just a little more quickly. Just as in life, timing is everything !My 1/11 storm predicting was this thing slllllooooooowwwing. Doesn't look like it will too much unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 17 at the house. Pretty nice stretch of cold mornings. I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 17 at the house. Pretty nice stretch of cold mornings. I like it How do you feel about next week. this weeks yo-yo watching has been interesting. Next week (as of now) seems to hold some hope to get on the snow board. AO continutes to tank, and signs of the NAO trending better have me thinking its gettting closer to game time. Whatchu think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Well looks like we have to wait a bit longer for any exciting weather, but this cold has been impressive, ground is frozen big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Well looks like we have to wait a bit longer for any exciting weather, but this cold has been impressive, ground is frozen big time.I don't think it's that impressive to have a couple days in the 20s with lows in the mid single digits in January. I think seasonable cold after the record breaking warmth in December just feels especially cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I don't think it's that impressive to have a couple days in the 20s with lows in the mid single digits in January. I think seasonable cold after the record breaking warmth in December just feels especially cold. Yea, you're probably right. Rain this weekend then off to see what rest of month looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Hmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 lololwut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 That would um... that would change our tunes real fast around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'm cool with that...as long as it's the weekend! Hmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Hmmmm. Eskimo Joe might even bat an eye if we got a storm like that haha. It does seem like that period looks to be a time we might see some kind of southern stream action try to work it's way across. Given the forecast blocking to be in place.. with a solid -NAO and an an extreme -AO being progged. I'd probably be more worried about suppression over lakes cutters. The -AO being forecast at -5 or even less is something we haven't seen since 09-10, and we generally don't see it that negative to begin with. Just kinda illustrates how radical this pattern shift really has been from a setup and teleconnection standpoint... even if the results so far are pretty lackluster as far as the sensible weather around here. The storm potential is intriguing, but I do worry a bit about cold air availability when the southern stream flexes it's muscle. On the other hand the significant -AO and -NAO would be a nice touch. At any rate the Euro op had a much warmer system than that 18z GFS run, even with a coastal low. Gotta keep in mind as always we're talking way out in range with this. I'm only going to acknowledge this is a period to watch for a storm.... but the potential for a good one is there. We shall see what happens. Kinda wish things would've worked out for this weekend, I hate wasting storms on complete rainers in January.. but the boundary just doesn't get here in time with the wave riding up. Secondary development isn't gonna be enough to really change things over in the commonwealth before the main precip shuts off with the parent 850 low lifting up to our west.. so not agreeing with DT's outlook on such. Should get some decent LES and upslope snows though in the western mountains in the wake of the system.. so I could certainly get on board with a potential for the Laurel's first advisory snows of the season. Might be some light snow chances during next week with some occasional shortwave reinforcements of the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 How do you feel about next week. this weeks yo-yo watching has been interesting. Next week (as of now) seems to hold some hope to get on the snow board. AO continutes to tank, and signs of the NAO trending better have me thinking its gettting closer to game time. Whatchu think? Hey Nut. Sorry for the delayed response. Currently doing overnights at work so basically everything is all screwed up time wise with me lol. I still like the period mid month between 16 - 19th for something to come about. Right now the models are having a tough time with each passing run due to the amount of energy (players) on the field at one time. The teleconnections would favor a pretty stout pattern for snow lovers in the MA, but I feel like nothing will be getting resolved until 5 days or closer to a potential game time. As you saw from earlier, the GFS basically gave a little peep show to us snow geeks as to what can happen when all the chips fall in place. The key right now is getting the timing right on phasing the energy on the energetic northern branch and the juicy southern branch. El Nino's are so tough due to the split flow patterns traditionally associated with them. The upcoming period does show some promise in terms of the Atlantic becoming more favorable with the blocking establishment later this weekend. We need the correct placement of the block though. Depending where you are of course is where do you actually want it? lol For CPA, you want a better block to be located a little more west based than usual so the storm can ride a little closer to the coast and best banding and qpf shield tick a little further west. Right now, the setup is actually something that would be good for the cities and eastward as MAG alluded to, the nasty suppression possibility with the teleconnections lined up the way they are. At the end of tonight's 0z Euro run, you can see a system brewing in the Gulf and looks poised to come up the coast. Unfortunately, if you look further, the blocking scheme for that system would setup at nice area of confluence to the north and the storm would actually high tail it out to sea around NC. There also wasn't nearly enough phasing of the two branches to get the H5 trough to sharpen, allowing it to come up the Atlantic seaboard, so we had two things working against that potential..... for this run. I still think the models are going to be shifting around like mad over the next 3-5 days, until we get our block established from the system this weekend. I do see a potential for some snow by the 12/13th as a nice piece of energy dives down around the MA and provides a nice regional PVA across Pennsylvania, leading to up-slope snow in the Highlands and streamers moving across the state due to the lift associated with the vort max. Until then, will be keeping my eyes peeled for the "Big One" as this winter could more of a, "Go Big or Go Home" type setup due to the Nino and NPAC fluctuations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I have a weird feeling LSV cashes in on a warning event late month. Just a hunch, nothing meteorologically sound. well we are overdue for a classic LSV ice storm... :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 well we are overdue for a classic LSV ice storm... :-) easy now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Dangerous fog here. That's looking at the Harvey Taylor Bridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 i just ran out for lunch, the fog is getting thick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 If you haven't checked the 6z GFS yet before reading this, make sure you are sitting down and not drinking coffee while you look at the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 If you haven't checked the 6z GFS yet before reading this, make sure you are sitting down and not drinking coffee while you look at the run Nice...but I thought I told everyone I was only ok with something like that if it was on a weekend...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Nice...but I thought I told everyone I was only ok with something like that if it was on a weekend...lol Hahaha. You just know Mother Nature will try everything in her power to make it on that Monday because of that. Anyway, it's only one run. Guarantee we see something completely different at 12z. At least it's eye candy for 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Hahaha. You just know Mother Nature will try everything in her power to make it on that Monday because of that. Anyway, it's only one run. Guarantee we see something completely different at 12z. At least it's eye candy for 6 hours. Indeed. But as has been said, the pattern is ripe for a snowstorm, so I do believe that one of these future events IS going to pan out. It's just which one and when... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Definitely an interesting pattern in the 7-10 day time frame. A significant Rex block is forecast by the Euro and GFS to develop, with a low over central Quebec/Ontario and a high west of Greenland. The slow eastward propagation of the low should allow for mid-level confluence to persist to our N/NE for several days, maintaining a low-level ageostrophic flow of cold air. Obviously that is a feature we want to see for a significant snow storm in central PA to occur. Over the pacific, there will likely be a multitude of shortwave disturbances associated with the enhanced subtropical jet. The positive PNA suggests split flow, where northern stream disturbances will likely enter the CONUS from NW Canada. Any northern stream disturbance that phases with a southern stream disturbance would favor cyclogenesis. Where and to what extent phasing occurs will determine the potential storm track and intensity (out to sea, glorified cold front, apps runner, etc.). To examine this threat in a somewhat statistical way, I've plotted the top 10 analogs of the day 6 forecast from last nights 00z Euro ensemble mean. Many of these analogs had at least a few inches of snow within three days. The 2/1/10 analog stands out as a high outlier, but is interesting to see nonetheless ( ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The 2/1/10 analog stands out as a high outlier, but is interesting to see nonetheless ( ). anPlot.png I saw that the other day, I believe on DT's facebook where both 12-19-09 and 2-4-10 were used in comparison to the predicted conditions. This was discussed in a segment last night on WxUnderground, which, I'm glad TWC has a program to cater to weather nerds. They broke down the last several model runs and ensembles. It's funny that last night they showed the big run that canderson posted and then showed the next couple runs that showed little to nothing and then it's back this morning and will probably be gone again at 12z. Looks like we're probably on our first actual model watch of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I hear talk of squalls possible on Tuesday, any truth to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The players are on the field. The right game plan was devised. The right play has been called. Can we finally score ? The pattern for the next 2 weeks looks ideal . We can't draw up a much better pattern & the telleconnections are all where we want to see them. It's going to be an emotional week of model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Remember also the Farm Show Factor is in play during the next two weeks. My 11th storm prediction will instead by a sunny cold day. Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I'm fine with a sunny cold day. It may also turn into just being a day early for a clipper. The Mid-Atlantic thread is a depressing, depressing place. I just read the "You know it's a bad winter when..." thread and lost all hope in snow this winter, snow next winter, snow ever again, world peace, a cure for cancer, a way out of debt, a way to keep Trump from being elected, a way for the Bengals to beat the Stillers, a way to successfully narfle the Garthok, a way to win tonight's Powerball (which, I guess is a way out of debt), and a way to travel through time. So thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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