Blizzard of 93 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 The models are showing the pattern change beginning during the first week of January. Hopefully this will be the last of the way above normal and then we can get down to some winter business! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 12z gfs looks nice for the central mountains for the 12/28 event...and then brings in a HECS for the first week of January Ah yes... the models are starting to show their farm show storm. It's a week early right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Plenty of time to adjust south Or cut to Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 GFS MEX up to 70 for Christmas Eve and a low of 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I do think that Scranton south will have much below normal snowfall when the pattern changes it will be for more northern and elevated places in Pa and Ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Just for fun: Put a possible +35 departure for Christmas Eve and land it on 24 June. You'd yield a high of 115 and a low of 93 around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 72 predicted for Christmas Eve. Shoot me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 This pattern is truly awful. I can take 45 to 50 and cloudy/drizzly on Xmas but 70s? Come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 22, 2015 Author Share Posted December 22, 2015 The January "pattern change" looks incredibly transient...after about 3 days of dry/normal conditions we're back into the toaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 The January "pattern change" looks incredibly transient...after about 3 days of dry/normal conditions we're back into the toaster. Thanks for the "insight". For those in the forum that are looking for a ray of hope...I'll offer up my amateur interpretations of what I've been reading. We all know it's been ugly and still have pain to endure, but for the last few days, the models have been suggesting (as have many mets/others, that the cold between the last week of the year and the first week of 2016 would likely be transient w/ ebbs and flows of cold/moisture until 2 or 3rd week in Jan., At least we are trending towards more typical Nino weather. PNA definately is headed +, EPO toward neut, and NAO still + but as we know from last year, we can "make due" without. MJO looking to come out of COD into 8 (as of yesterday). Euro weeklies still meh...but show a change, so that's a start. If you want to learn for yourself, go to the NE and MA forums where many great discussions are being had (and much knowledge to be learned for some of us). Many respected mets/hobbyists are starting to think we are heading towards better days (and based on the model runs of the last 4-5 days...growing support for less toaster baths... Would be nice if our forum had more than a couple objective taggers that could keep us from looking elsewhere for what may or may not happen, but thanks to those that do. Merry Christmas...Happy Holidays...Hanukkah or whatever you celebrate) to everyone (despite what bias you may have for weather . Its winter, and I look forward to discussing it soon. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Lol I'm rooting for you nut. Us warmth fans have been spoiled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Thanks for the "insight". For those in the forum that are looking for a ray of hope...I'll offer up my amateur interpretations of what I've been reading. We all know it's been ugly and still have pain to endure, but for the last few days, the models have been suggesting (as have many mets/others, that the cold between the last week of the year and the first week of 2016 would likely be transient w/ ebbs and flows of cold/moisture until 2 or 3rd week in Jan., At least we are trending towards more typical Nino weather. PNA definately is headed +, EPO toward neut, and NAO still + but as we know from last year, we can "make due" without. MJO looking to come out of COD into 8 (as of yesterday). Euro weeklies still meh...but show a change, so that's a start. If you want to learn for yourself, go to the NE and MA forums where many great discussions are being had (and much knowledge to be learned for some of us). Many respected mets/hobbyists are starting to think we are heading towards better days (and based on the model runs of the last 4-5 days...growing support for less toaster baths... Would be nice if our forum had more than a couple objective taggers that could keep us from looking elsewhere for what may or may not happen, but thanks to those that do. Merry Christmas...Happy Holidays...Hanukkah or whatever you celebrate) to everyone (despite what bias you may have for weather . Its winter, and I look forward to discussing it soon. Nut I really do think this forum has them but until things look more favorable for something to discuss on a more frequent basis for most of us here I think we would be beating the "warm" dead horse, which tends to be frowned upon for some reason. Things really have been rather boring model wise lately and yes they are finally starting to trend toward something of interest down the road. Unfortunately having areas to our north and west without snow cover is really making it tough around here right now and are likely part of why it will take several weeks for us to really start seeing winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 GFS now up to 72 Thursday. If that happens, we have a new December record (71; 12/1/06). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I really do think this forum has them but until things look more favorable for something to discuss on a more frequent basis for most of us here I think we would be beating the "warm" dead horse, which tends to be frowned upon for some reason. Things really have been rather boring model wise lately and yes they are finally starting to trend toward something of interest down the road. Unfortunately having areas to our north and west without snow cover is really making it tough around here right now and are likely part of why it will take several weeks for us to really start seeing winter. For the record...you, Mag and one or 2 others are one of the ones i say thanks to... I enjoy conversations about the weather...good bad and ugly, and would lke to think I have a few virtual friends here, but yeah...I dont come here much in the summer...I let the warmies play. To me...its starting to become the next Philly forum. I don't want to see that.. especially when there is plenty of talk both North and South of us. . Our forum has largely become warm blooded and talk of cold/snow is often "fixed". I just don't want to see people leave, cause this is probably my favorite place to be on the web. Mushy crap over... I guess I'm a minority, but this is a weather forum right...not warmlovers or naysayers.com (i guess i should google that first one but am fearful for what I find ). Other forums have em, but they are offset by lots of snownuts.....just not the PA one I usually just lurk...and learn...the good and the bad. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I do think we will get the pattern change that we desperately need to have a chance to see something at least semi-wintery, but it's going to be rather slow to see any results. It's not likely to be realized until we have closed out what will probably be our warmest December on record...and have a lot of rain the next 6-10 days. There is a pretty major shift in the PNA being forecast, reversing from solidly negative to solidly positive by the new year or so. The EPO is still forecast to remain positive but not extremely so and of course the NAO remains positive. A lot of variability between members in the AO forecast, but there is consensus on a drop from it's current high before things really spread out. The MJO is forecast to come through phase 6 (currently in 5) and depending on the model.. head into the circle or keep on going into phase 7. In the case of the Euro plots it goes eventually through 7 into 8. It needs to come out of 5 and 6, those are the absolute worst phases and has very accurate correlation to eastern torching. If we can finally get a good PNA ridge going we'll at least have shifted things to where cold air will be more available to the eastern US.. although I don't currently see anything extremely arctic or anything. We could still be vulnerable to the cutter if the western ridge is set up too far to the west. I also came across this good write-up regarding the polar vortex and AO.. here's a snippet of it. December 21, 2015 Summary The AO is currently positive and is predicted to trend negative but still remain near neutral. The negative AO trend is reflective of the model forecast of initial low pressure/geopotential heights over the North Atlantic side of the Arctic transitioning to more high pressure/geopotential heights. The models are predicting that the dominant geopotential height rise will be near Scandinavia and the Barents Kara Seas with downstream troughing over East Asia. This has significant implications for the strength of the polar vortex in January. With high pressure strengthening in the Barents Kara Seas, temperatures should turn cold first across Siberia and Central Asia and then eventually across East Asia. However for now, blocking across northwest Asia will prevent the westward flow of cold air from Siberia into Europe. Models are also predicting rising pressure/geopotential heights across western North America, in part in response to some initial perturbing of the polar vortex. This will likely result in deepening troughing across eastern North America and a cooling trend in temperatures for the Eastern United States. The atmosphere is currently experiencing a pulse of energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere that will last the remainder of the week. The models are predicting a second pulse during the first week of January and we continue to anticipate even further energy transfer. This will begin to perturb or disturb the polar vortex starting this week, which will likely peak sometime in January. High snow cover and low sea ice this past fall favored a weakening of the polar vortex preferentially in January. The latest weather model forecasts increase our confidence in a weakening or perturbed polar vortex in January (the GFS more so than the ECMWF and this needs to be closely monitored). Following the polar vortex weakening the negative phase of the AO, cold temperatures and potentially an increase in snowstorms is favored across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes including the Eastern United States, Europe and East Asia. Teleconnection forecasts (NAO, EPO, PNA, WPO): AO forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 July 4th high 69. Do we see a warmer Christmas Eve than Independence Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The pattern change is beginning to show itself very well in the models as we end December and enter 2016. Joe Bastardi showed today the bias corrected Euro MJO forecast and it is clearly showing it going Strongly into phase 8 during the 1st week of January, which is cold in the east. Yesterday, he showed the extended Euro weeklies. It showed a Fantastic pattern that only strengthens as we head toward mid and late January. The Ridge builds in NW Canada and the trough cuts underneath from the southern plains to the east coast. We just need to endure 1 last week of warmth, then we should step down into winter as we begin the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Can't see anything outside due to fog. Very dangerous, wrecks everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 850mb zonal wind 4casts show another strong WWB over ENSO 3.4 & enso 3. This Nino won't be declining fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Thanks for the info Mag and DJR. With the exeption of my stating the MJO coming out of the COD to 8 (really coming out of 5/6 as Mag stated), it sound like a growing consensus agrees. Understanding the teleconnections and how the "moving parts" work in concert with each other in any given pattern/state has been my biggest interest over the past year. It would be nice to see the AO trend further neg. ( if the NAO doesnt want to play), as it would keep our source regions cold or close to cold. It does seem to look like were headed for better times, whether its transient or back and forth...remains to be seen, but at least weather more typical of the season is coming...although seeing the ENSO update and that the latest Nino continues to show warming is quite impressive...and potentially a problem longer term. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Thanks for the info Mag and DJR. With the exeption of my stating the MJO coming out of the COD to 8 (really coming out of 5/6 as Mag stated), it sound like a growing consensus agrees. Understanding the teleconnections and how the "moving parts" work in concert with each other in any given pattern/state has been my biggest interest over the past year. It would be nice to see the AO trend further neg. ( if the NAO doesnt want to play), as it would keep our source regions cold or close to cold. It does seem to look like were headed for better times, whether its transient or back and forth...remains to be seen, but at least weather more typical of the season is coming...although seeing the ENSO update and that the latest Nino continues to show warming is quite impressive...and potentially a problem longer term. Nut MJO exiting 5/6 will certainly help us come back down from the extreme temperature anomaly currently going on. I have to keep adjusting the axis so the 2015 point is in the chart and I imagine with moisture locked in over the next few days we will be seeing many lows above normal high temperatures that will only further boost this above the current record. For those who really want to learn about MJO/ENSO here are a few links to bookmark to find the expert discussions that are either weekly or monthly: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ - This one has a weekly and monthly ENSO update which sometimes does not change much from week to week but will help you get familiar with terms and abbreviations that the weather world seems to love to use. This link also has a monthly "Climate Diagnostics Bulletin" that is absolutely loaded with more information and graphics than you will know what to do with but again good information. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#discussion - this has the weekly MJO update where you can also find an archive of the updates going back a couple years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Any staying power for cold weather will most certainly have a difficult time in this setup... Perhaps we get lucky with winter storm or two, but increasing chance for a return to anomalous ridging by the middle of January. The stratosphere and likely Atlantic are showing no signs of cooperating this month just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 56 already at the airport, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Thanks dj and blizz. I look forward to reviewing that info, and yes, it is concerning that the +PNA may only be transient, but I guess we have to start somewhere. Changing the trough axis to me is step one in this mess. Another interesting facet to this is SSW, and how peturbations of it play an important role in dislodging of the cold to our regions. Unfortunately an analogy (used yesterday in another forum) of throwing ping pong balls at a basketball seem to be quite fitting. With the Nino on roids continuing to maintain strengh, I would think we really need something substantial to reshuffle the deck, as the normal tendencies of the Nino climo will not apply if it doesn't start cooling soon. Do you guys agree w/ my basic interpretations? Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The Euro/GFS have been quietly hinting at an ice threat early next week (D5-7) with the last major system slated to ride up into the Great lakes from the southern states. The Euro especially so today, perfectly placing a 1040+ high to our north with the low pressure center riding up well west of us... a good setup for a prolonged mix/ice event in the central counties. GFS had initial mixing too but less of a high that gets moved more quickly. Something to keep an eye on I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The 12z NAM had 74 for tomorrow. It was already 3 degrees too COLD so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The Euro/GFS have been quietly hinting at an ice threat early next week (D5-7) with the last major system slated to ride up into the Great lakes from the southern states. The Euro especially so today, perfectly placing a 1040+ high to our north with the low pressure center riding up well west of us... a good setup for a prolonged mix/ice event in the central counties. GFS had initial mixing too but less of a high that gets moved more quickly. Something to keep an eye on I suppose. The wife and I are thinking of driving to Albany (well Saratoga Springs technically) Sunday morning and then back home Monday midday. Should we rethink our plans you think? We'd take 78 to NJ and not 81 to 84 fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 More proof that the avoca airport area does not represent climo for northeast Pa. as of yesterday Pleasant Mount Pa is running 7.5 degrees cooler than them and Hawley Pa about 5 degrees cooler this month while West Chester Pa is about the same temps this month as the avoca area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 More proof that the avoca airport area does not represent climo for northeast Pa. as of yesterday Pleasant Mount Pa is running 7.5 degrees cooler than them and Hawley Pa about 5 degrees cooler this month while West Chester Pa is about the same temps this month as the avoca area! Find something else to post about, dude, or go tell the NWS to stop reporting from Avoca or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 More proof that the avoca airport area does not represent climo for northeast Pa. as of yesterday Pleasant Mount Pa is running 7.5 degrees cooler than them and Hawley Pa about 5 degrees cooler this month while West Chester Pa is about the same temps this month as the avoca area! Seriously? You're talking about locations that are rural and higher in elevation. Of course they're going to be lower. On another note, we're getting quite the rainstorm here right now. I'm up to 0.92" with a rainfall rate of 1 inch per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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