WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 HM was suggesting today on Twitter that the strat vortex might start getting attacked a bit in the next week, but right now it's so cold/strong that it might only get it back to average temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 GFS 12/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Legit snowstorm on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 GFS 12/5 If it happens in any form it will make punting the remainder of the month much easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 If it happens in any form it will make punting the remainder of the month much easier. I've kind of liked the idea of an early season event...Obviously this is fantasy range, but I think an early season event of some sort (even of not DC proper) makes more sense than in most winters...even with December likely finishing above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I've kind of liked the idea of an early season event...Obviously this is fantasy range, but I think an early season event of some sort (even of not DC proper) makes more sense than in most winters...even with December likely finishing above GFS for the past few runs has been showing an East Coast low... of course it will change each run wrt to everything, but I agree with you that there will probably be some sort of event around that date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Cohen going all in for snowy MA winter check out today's CWG article that I can't seem to link because I've read my 5 free articles this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I'm in. It's been a while since we've had a Dec 5 event.. we're due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Cohen going all in for snowy MA winter check out today's CWG article that I can't seem to link because I've read my 5 free articles this month doesn't work clicking thru twitter or FB? should from social. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 doesn't work clicking thru twitter or FB? should from social. I'd be interested if someone could probe Cohen a bit more on his accidentally-not-a-bust bust from last season. Has he been pushed by anyone to go beyond the defense he put out in the early spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I'm not caving until the PARA is onboard.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I'd be hyper-ventilating because of Cohen seasonal forecast and the 12Z GFS forecast for Dec 5 if I halfway believed either of them. Either could be right but I'm skeptical of both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I'm not caving until the PARA is onboard.. There's only one model capable of giving a true weenie the validation he/she thrives upon, and that's the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I'd be hyper-ventilating because of Cohen seasonal forecast and the 12Z GFS forecast for Dec 5 if I halfway believed either of them. Either could be right but I'm skeptical of both. Agreed.. the smart money is on Sue Palka Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I'd be hyper-ventilating because of Cohen seasonal forecast and the 12Z GFS forecast for Dec 5 if I halfway believed either of them. Either could be right but I'm skeptical of both. Me too. I just don't see how we are cold enough for the early Dec possibility. Even the 12z gfs surface is in the mid-upper 30's with 40's close to the bay during the digital snow storm . Sure it could snow but it would be a lot better if we actually had a solid early Dec cold air mass to work with. The AO has been simply nasty + since the beginning of the month. I don't think Nov has the same implications as Dec but all guidance is pointing toward the AO being + for the foreseeable future. If things don't change in Dec then we know what is more like on the balance of DJF. 2006 is in the back of my mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Me too. I just don't see how we are cold enough for the early Dec possibility. Even the 12z gfs surface is in the mid-upper 30's with 40's close to the bay during the digital snow storm . Sure it could snow but it would be a lot better if we actually had a solid early Dec cold air mass to work with. The AO has been simply nasty + since the beginning of the month. I don't think Nov has the same implications as Dec but all guidance is pointing toward the AO being + for the foreseeable future. If things don't change in Dec then we know what is more like on the balance of DJF. 2006 is in the back of my mind... The only thing that it has going for it is that a not so + NAO pops around that time and might allow it to happen. Too bad it is so far out. One thing to note. If the one run is right there could be some hope going out into Dec as the stupid PV that has been camped over Greenland starts to break up some. That might allow for some better blocking going into Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 who is starting the 12/5 we are due thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 24, 2015 Author Share Posted November 24, 2015 I've kind of liked the idea of an early season event...Obviously this is fantasy range, but I think an early season event of some sort (even of not DC proper) makes more sense than in most winters...even with December likely finishing above The 12/4-12/6 period has had an interesting look on the GFS since it made it within 16 days. It's been on and off, but it's been there. I don't think that makes it more likely, but it has been consistently flirting with this idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 who is starting the 12/5 we are due thread? i would but I'm afraid this is what's in store for me if it doesn't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 i would but I'm afraid this is what's in store for me if it doesn't pan out. Euro has a gulf low brewing at the end of the run with a sprawling 1030+ hp to the north of it. Only 1 tiny little problem. The 850 0c line is in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 It's so good to have you back When is your next two week outlook? Because of the holiday, probably next week unless the 5th still looks good on Friday, then I'll do one this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Euro has a gulf low brewing at the end of the run with a sprawling 1030+ hp to the north of it. Only 1 tiny little problem. The 850 0c line is in Canada.if you translate the euro warm bias..the 850 line is really in Alexandria,va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 For you ultimate long range snow fans, new testbed product exclusive to LWX. http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winterstormthreat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 For you ultimate long range snow fans, new testbed product exclusive to LWX. http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winterstormthreat I like it. Know there's been discussion of implementing more or a Europe/UKMet style of addressing threats with simplified color schemes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 For you ultimate long range snow fans, new testbed product exclusive to LWX. http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winterstormthreat More spoon feeding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Euro has a gulf low brewing at the end of the run with a sprawling 1030+ hp to the north of it. Only 1 tiny little problem. The 850 0c line is in Canada. I've been drinking already, so ignore the end of my post. Sounds great to me, Bob. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I like. I want to see it in action first. If it's running wild from run to run it may not be that great of a tool. I can already imagine the meltdowns when the euro and ukie go from big daddy to cirrus and we go from purple to green. Seems purple would be hard to attain at day 4 but maybe in Feb 2010. Assume this will ultimately in the future be used to d1 tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 More spoon feeding. Agreed. Love me some DSS but so many gov officials will fail to understand what this means. i see it every winter when people ask me why the weather service hasn't named the winter storm yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Agreed. Love me some DSS but so many gov officials will fail to understand what this means. i see it every winter when people ask me why the weather service hasn't named the winter storm yet. There's been discussion about this type of thing for years now. I think ultimately it's tied to lowering the number of products (watch/advisory/etc) and the confusion that goes with having so many products. It's not hard to see how this could be implemented across all weather types (maybe FF, TS, Tor warnings would still need to be different) and would present a pretty straightforward guide to impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 There's been discussion about this type of thing for years now. I think ultimately it's tied to lowering the number of products (watch/advisory/etc) and the confusion that goes with having so many products. It's not hard to see how this could be implemented across all weather types (maybe FF, TS, Tor warnings would still need to be different) and would present a pretty straightforward guide to impacts. Trust me, I'm all for this I like it. I just kinda loathe winter at this point with all the hand wringing over 4" of snow and blatant misunderstanding of a winter weather advisory vs, winter storm warning. /rant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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