yotaman Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Crazy how much it has moved from west to east and back west the last two days. And it will probably be East again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 And it will probably be East again tomorrow. Doubt it would be as far east as it was though given how far south it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Reports of fatalities in Dominica...... From Stormcarib.com "Thursday, August 27, 2015 09:46AM PDT - Dominica Although there were no tropical storm warnings or watches for Dominica because the center of the storm was supposed to pass about 100 miles to the north, the island is being greatly affected by Erika. I guess forecasters forgot that the brunt of the system was to the south of the center... Again, as often with a tropical system, the winds are not the biggest problem, but the rains associated with the system. So even though Dominica might not have had sustained tropical force winds (so a tropical storm warning was not warranted I guess), they did for sure experience tropical storm conditions! Maybe they should change the definition of a tropical storm warning/watch. There are reports of widespread flooding (incl. the airport), landslides, and widespread power outages. Unfortunately two people are confirmed dead and as many as 5 people are missing. I am trying to get some news from my special hurricane correspondents on the island (posted on the Dominica page), but with no power it will be hard. For other news check out Google News Full Coverage. -Gert" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 This is nearly spot on to what they are showing on the Weather Channel. It would be crazy to see one here. We haven't had landfall of anything higher than cat 2 in Georgia in more than a century, and even those are few. I think the last category 3 to hit the Georgia coastline was in like 1898 or something like that. A long, long time. I hope people wouldn't be too complacent. Even the last category 2 to hit our coastline was 1979 I think, well out of the memory of a lot of people (and many weren't even born yet). That sort of length of time can make people cocky and careless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Doubt it would be as far east as it was though given how far south it is. FWIW: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/graphics/al05/loop_5W.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 New plane should be out there in no more than a hr so we will see how the LLC is reacting, looks to be moving more NW now at least on radar and its tough to tell on Vis where the center is now...my guess though is they will have to re plot the center somewhere NE of the old position....if I had to guess I would put it at 17N and maybe 63.5W....moving more NW. If she can get a decent core together before hitting PR it most likely wont effect her to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 storms really firing over the llc as the sun sets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 since you're not allowed to discuss the gfs without written consent in the main thread, ill post it here. 18z is slower and stronger, hugging the ec of fl thru 120 and strengthening., moving n. almost makes landfall in jax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Well that's different.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 It would be crazy to see one here. We haven't had landfall of anything higher than cat 2 in Georgia in more than a century, and even those are few. I think the last category 3 to hit the Georgia coastline was in like 1898 or something like that. A long, long time. I hope people wouldn't be too complacent. Even the last category 2 to hit our coastline was 1979 I think, well out of the memory of a lot of people (and many weren't even born yet). That sort of length of time can make people cocky and careless. correct on both accounts. The last GA major landfalling hurricane was in 1898 and Hurricane David was the last hurricane to directly make landfall in 1979. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 since you're not allowed to discuss the gfs without written consent in the main thread, ill post it here. 18z is slower and stronger, hugging the ec of fl thru 120 and strengthening., moving n. almost makes landfall in jax. Well that's different.. That would be drought-busting track for the entire SE. If only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 That would be drought-busting track for the entire SE. If only... Might not be that great of a drought buster, if it takes that track it will be a half a cane with the bulk of the storms right along the coast and offshore.....in fact I doubt it would be a cane at all more likely a ragged TS...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Radar would indicate that the center is roughly around 16.7N and 63.5W and appears to still be chugging along to the WNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Well that's different.. Thats got a dead aim on MBY. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Might not be that great of a drought buster, if it takes that track it will be a half a cane with the bulk of the storms right along the coast and offshore.....in fact I doubt it would be a cane at all more likely a ragged TS...... There would be alot of convection firing around the center in the Afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Don't think the models are going to settle on a solution until after Erika has finished interacting with PR and Hispaniola...expect the flip flopping to continue until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Don't think the models are going to settle on a solution until after Erika has finished interacting with PR and Hispaniola...expect the flip flopping to continue until then. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Seeing that upper low over the Gulf Coast tells me right there that this one is coming farther inland. Lessons of Hugo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Fran had a similar ULL which is why she bent back to the left a bit right as she made landfall.....still the windiest cane we had here gusted to 106 at PGV but the local utility office had a 118 mph gust but it wasn't official. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Seeing that upper low over the Gulf Coast tells me right there that this one is coming farther inland. Lessons of Hugo! I agree fully! That upper low should help "pull/guide" Erika toward the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 WPC 7 day rainfall total shows up to 1" of rain even into my area. That might not be associated with Erika though. I doubt a storm hitting the east coast would bring rainfall this far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 WPC 7 day rainfall total shows up to 1" of rain even into my area. That might not be associated with Erika though. I doubt a storm hitting the east coast would bring rainfall this far west. At least some of that 1" total probably has to deal with the GFS idea that Erika makes landfall on the GA coast, and moves NW into northeast GA/Western SC. In fact, the 18Z GFS brings the center of Erika's remnants just to the north of your location at ~183hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 There would be alot of convection firing around the center in the Afternoon and evening. Speaking droughts, Puerto Rico is in a pretty bad one themselves. Hopefully this thing doesn't do more bad than good down there, but from what we are seeing coming out of the Dominican, who knows. It will be interesting to see the runs the next few days to see if this thing pushes any more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 There would be alot of convection firing around the center in the Afternoon and evening. That track would definitely put a major dent on our drought. Many of us would see 5+ inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 That track would definitely put a major dent on our drought. Many of us would see 5+ inches of rain. And possibly alot more if heaven forbid, she stalls out over SC. The Weather Channel mentioned that possibility earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 And now the NHC has it further south and west towards Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 And now the NHC has it further south and west towards Miami.This is one of those deals where it ends up going across FL and then up into AL or MS and gives the Carolinas nothing, the way our luck has beenThe ULL is going to throw everything off and models don't do well with them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I'm surprised the NHC is forecasting it to maintain as a hurricane as it parallels very closely to the FL coast. I would think being that close to land would weaken it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Not quite Miami, but vacillation for sure. FWIW -- http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/graphics/al05/loop_5W.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 @ 2:24, Closed Low in gulf and Bermuda High... sound familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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