Erika 2015

[SN_Lover]

Well, if its gonna track like that, i hope it gets shredded apart. Next.

Yea, if it lasts, it's going to be a fish. Wake me up when Nino ends....

 

[nchighcountrywx]

Big Joe Bastardi's 3:30pm Thoughts:

Then it tries to escape toward the trough to the east.

I dont believe it. I can see it, but dont believe it. Far more likely to me will be a milling around storm that is blocked, and has to turn back toward the coast. That kind of pattern,a huge ridge like that with a trough back over the Miss valley is the hurricane hit pattern in the southeast, not go out to sea. Yes its possible, but at this time I dont believe it.

I do believe that once north of 20 north, this will start to develop and between 25 and 35 north, if over the water, it will become a major.

[goldman75]

Anyone else hate trying to get the 11 o'clock tropical update on twc and some fat guys in the woods show is on?

[jojo762]

Anyone else hate trying to get the 11 o'clock tropical update on twc and some fat guys in the woods show is on?

Even the Network satellite/cable providers have complained about this... Thats why Dish and DirecTV did not provide TWC for a bit, until they renegotiated with TWC to show less non-weather related (pretty crappy) reality tv. To no avail apparently. 

http://consumerist.com/2014/04/09/weather-channel-returns-to-directv-but-with-less-reality-programming/

[SN_Lover]

Anyone else hate trying to get the 11 o'clock tropical update on twc and some fat guys in the woods show is on?

Got to weathernation, what TWC used to be, 

[IsentropicLift]

If you want a similar projected path that had a large impact see Irene 2011.

[NRVwxfan.]

Yea, if it lasts, it's going to be a fish. Wake me up when Nino ends....

 

At least Nino would bring some good rains.

[SN_Lover]

At least Nino would bring some good rains.

Yup,and the white stuff ))

[jojo762]

If you want a similar projected path that had a large impact see Irene 2011.

Agreed for the most part, but do not think that Erika would carry on northward toward New England... Also think that Erika will probably be stronger than Irene was upon landfall *if* Erika does in fact make landfall somewhere in the SE.

[superjames1992]

Looks like it'll end up being a souped up combined version of Floyd, Hazel, and Hugo to me.

But, seriously, though, the track does look interesting so we'll see if it can hold together and make things interesting.

[jojo762]

NHC 11pm Discussion...

Erika is a very disorganized tropical storm. Although convection
has increased and is a little closer to the center tonight, data
from both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that
the surface pressure is not falling, and the maximum winds remain
about 40 kt. These winds are confined to squalls to the north and
east of the center.

Erika will be moving through a hostile wind shear environment as
predicted by global models and the SHIPS guidance. On this
basis, the NHC forecast weakens Erika to a 35-kt tropical storm
and keeps that intensity for the next 48 hours. Erika, however,
could even degenerate into a trough during the next day or so. If
Erika survives the next 3 days and reaches the Bahamas, the
environment is expected to become quite favorable. In fact, global
models and the HWRF/GFDL pair forecast Erika to become a hurricane
by the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is a little
below the intensity consensus to reflect the possibility that the
cyclone could dissipate before it reaches the Bahamas, and then it
will be too late to take advantage of the more conducive environment
there.

Fixes from the reconnaissance planes indicate that Erika is moving
toward the west or 280 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is embedded
within well-established steering currents south of the Atlantic
subtropical ridge. This persistent pattern will likely keep the
cyclone or its remnants, in case it weakens, on a west to
west-northwest motion for the next 3 days. After that time, the
system will be in between the southwestern edge of the subtropical
ridge and a mid-level trough, which is forecast to be nearly
stationary along the east-central portion of the United States.
This will force the cyclone to turn more to the northwest or even
northward. Guidance shifted farther east tonight, and consequently,
the NHC track forecast was adjusted slightly eastward, and it is
very close to the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS models.

One should remember to not focus on the exact forecast track,
especially at the long range where the average NHC track errors
during the past 5 years are about 180 miles at day 4 and 240
miles at day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 16.7N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 17.4N 62.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 18.6N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 20.0N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 21.2N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 23.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 26.0N 78.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 28.5N 79.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

[NRVwxfan.]

Agreed for the most part, but do not think that Erika would carry on northward toward New England... Also think that Erika will probably be stronger than Irene was upon landfall *if* Erika does in fact make landfall somewhere in the SE.

And thats a huge "if" too. 

[jojo762]

And thats a huge "if" too. 

Certainly didn't look good on 18Z guidance and the 00Z runs that are in for anyone wanting a landfalling 'cane.

[sparklecity]

[mackerel_sky]

Holding its own and strengthened slightly overnight . Winds at 50mph at last update!

Still looks to be moving due west! If it does not start to take a slight N of W , it's going to run into Puerto Rico

[RevDodd]

Erika survived another haymaker from shear yesterday and lives to tell the tale ... and the tale is getting a bit more interesting for the Carolinas.

[nchighcountrywx]

Watching with interest ensembles that for next week show potential ridging north of the Carolinas and troughiness to west.

Compare that with the upper patterns of other landfalling Carolinas storms from the past.

It will be interesting to see how the pattern is playing out Sunday evening this upcoming weekend

[downeastnc]

Still hard to see the LLC on the radar, according to NHC its just north of the island the radar is on but if that is the center its still pretty ugly....the center needs to move 50-100 miles east of PR to miss the worst of the shear that looks to be a tall order. As far as it heading up the coast to us here in the Carolinas I wont begin to believe it till we get within 72 hrs. If there is decent model agreement at that point for Erika to come here as a decent cane it will be time to start hurricane preparedness stuff, however we are talking landfall in 7 days from now and a lot can and will change by then. ​

 

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles

​

[Bhs1975]

It may do a loop off the coast and try to creep back in with that ridge building to the north like Felix did. If the upper low is further east it would pull it nw.

[Solak]

Models seem to be more tightly clustered this morning. Not really seeing an east camp vs. a west camp, other than a couple outliers.

 

[BullCityWx]

0z GFS would be a significant hit for CHS

[FallsLake]

0z GFS would be a significant hit for CHS

6z will make you dizzy. Click on the below link and start hitting Next:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=096ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_096_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150827+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

[Solak]

That would cancel a few offshore fishing trips, stalling for that long

[FallsLake]

That would cancel a few offshore fishing trips, stalling for that long

If something like that actually happened I would expect our coast line (especially the Outer Banks) would get devastated by beach erosion.

[Shawn]

From glancing, it looks like both the 06z GFDL and HWRF are doing about the same track with it as it approaches the coast with a much lesser threat to FL/GA/SC and at the end probably not even for the NC Outter Banks.

 

The Euro basically makes it a wave.. but does a loop out thing like the GFS to an extent.

 

Here is a good page that's been activated for Erika - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL052015

 

and another good one for vortex messages, track maps, etc - http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2015/al052015/

[jaxjagman]

Last WRF is much weaker and now hits the east central coast of Fl.Last SHIPS still shows some strong shear coming up the next 24-48 hrs 26-28 kts,if it don't go N of P.Rico that will be even more issues with her

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like most of the models have it coming in between SC and NC. But is it going to last long enough to even make landfall?

[Brick Tamland]

 

Matthew East

6 mins ·

‪#‎Erika‬ currently south of forecast track position,& I wonder if convective envelope being largely south of the center could drag it more S?

[downeastnc]

The turn SE away from the coast on the GFS is a pretty rare thing for these systems to do....

 

The 00Z CMC run last night was about worse case scenario for NC IMO...and it isn't that far fetched and more believable to me versus the GFS with its weird turn SE into the right side of a high pressure....this kind of track is also more in line with "climo" with land falling storms around the NC/SC border moving N or NNE....though this one has a Fran like turn back to the west....this would be a huge rainfall producer with likely devastating floods in the mid atlantic....I fully expect the 12Z run to show something completely different lol. My home is about right under the 8 in the storm pressure on the second map.....so this was my weenie run...

 

 

[toxictwister00]

That bend the NHC has with Erika missing a hit on PR seems very unlikely imo. It needs to start turning NW right now if it wants to avoid hitting PR.