ice1972 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Feels weird saying this but if there is any tornado possibility tomorrow that potential may exist across far SE MA, the Cape area, and RI. Models do redevelop a pretty decent (30-35 knot) llj later in the day tomorrow. Just questions as to whether this occurs over this area or out over the ocean Probably where it screws folks the most.....lolz SNE SVR..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 hey look it's the SNE version of a dry line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I think it was the WCAX Facebook had a report of quarters at the picnic tables. Where'd ya see that? Didn't look like it went near the picnic tables Haha. Does look like there was a fatal accident on I-89 in Richmond near where that severe storm was. Not sure if it was weather related or not. Second fatal accident this week near exit 11 and both times the northbound driver crossed the grassy median and struck a driver coming the other way head-on. No chance of survival when a northbound car hits a southbound car at 75mph. A second storm developed and moved directly over MMN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Some pretty lolworthy soundings coming out of S CT on the 00z NAM valid 21 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Some pretty lolworthy soundings coming out of S CT on the 00z NAM valid 21 hours. OMG post the hodograph to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 meanwhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Anybody see any mention of this? Didn't wanna go back through the posts, if I missed it, I apologize. From what I hear, there's fatalities. Lancaster (Coos), NH **MCI/Collapse** 516 Main Street (Lancaster Fair) - Multiple mutual aid on scene with a collapse of a circus tent, possibly upwards of 250 occupants, injuries have been reported and transports are taking place, NH State Fire Marshal is responding, incident remains active, this is possibly storm related - 8/3/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 In the same general area. Sounding above was using SBCAPE, MLCAPE in that sounding was around 1000 J/kg lower, but still talking 3000+ J/kg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 meanwhile That's the equivalent in winter of the NAM showing a 2-3 foot blizzard and then the GFS comes in and shows a dusting from a strung out scraper. That's like 15-16F worth of dewpoint difference at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 In the same general area. Sounding above was using SBCAPE, MLCAPE in that sounding was around 1000 J/kg lower, but still talking 3000+ J/kg. I was wondering why the hodo wasn't more curved given the 291 helicity shown but that's b/c much of the turning is only from sfc to like 925mb...from around there on up is pure unidirectional. This makes sense though given how the trough is going to evolve but turning at the sfc definitely possible too, especially with any boundaries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 4 km NAM sounding from PVD @ 21z is pretty legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 That's the equivalent in winter of the NAM showing a 2-3 foot blizzard and then the GFS comes in and shows a dusting from a strung out scraper. That's like 15-16F worth of dewpoint difference at the surface. Pretty comical. I am a bit interested here since the SREF is still bullish with adequate instability. We've had 2 other cases this year where the NAM was on its own and even the SREFs were siding with the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Yeah i don't like how the GFS and Euro are really mixing out the dews with that dry, tongue of air. I'm skeptical of the NAM but a more modest blending would still give some a decent shot at a marginally severe storm, particularly eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Yeah i don't like how the GFS and Euro are really mixing out the dews with that dry, tongue of air. I'm skeptical of the NAM but a more modest blending would still give some a decent shot at a marginally severe storm, particularly eastern areas. The 12z Euro was showing 65+ dewpoints over the eastern half of CT, much of southern MA east of Springfield and RI at 18z tomorrow. By 00z you have 70s dewpoints over Cape Cod and SE MA. Doesn't seem unreasonable that 70s dewpoints may make their way into that area the NAM variants are favouring in that 6 hr window between those two times. Directional shear would be your next question, speed shear should be there though. Even that lame GFS sounding has more than enough of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Severe Weather Threat exists after 9z this morning. Parameters in place support an isolated tornado risk with damaging winds, Large Hail, Frequent Lightning and heavy rain the likely hazards with a line or discrete super cells transiting through SNE South Coastal regions. Our impulse responsible for these storms this morning is over Lake Erie. It will spread large scale ascent for additional thunderstorm development and with wind shear near 40-50 knots expect a line of convection producing damaging winds is quite possible Our impulse is quite intense seen on water vapor imagery over Lake Erie. It is currently producing strong to severe storms over central/eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Lifted Index is around -4C to -7C over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 S coast deal this morning as we mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 S coast deal this morning as we mentioned. Looks like some rain for drought-stricken CT going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Lots of debris clouds today to for the morning it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 That is a sh*t ton of lightning in RI right now. Good job by the SREF models showing this complex this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 That is a sh*t ton of lightning in RI right now. Good job by the SREF models showing this complex this morning.here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 here too Yeah another win down there. Some stronger winds showing up in wrn RI right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Anybody see any mention of this? Didn't wanna go back through the posts, if I missed it, I apologize. From what I hear, there's fatalities. Lancaster (Coos), NH **MCI/Collapse** 516 Main Street (Lancaster Fair) - Multiple mutual aid on scene with a collapse of a circus tent, possibly upwards of 250 occupants, injuries have been reported and transports are taking place, NH State Fire Marshal is responding, incident remains active, this is possibly storm related - 8/3/15 2 ppl killed, 15 injured per this article http://www.wmur.com/news/tent-collapses-at-lancaster-fairgrounds/34514530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Well one weak tstm at home. Better than nothing I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Loudest thunder of the summer here as that cell came through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Just had a quick shower pass through. A number of flashes and rumbles, the closest about 1.5 miles away. Probably the closest I've had all season, ftl. A quick .16". That's likely it for the day out in these parts. Good luck to you easterners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Holy sh*t RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walpole Joe Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Holy sh*t RI. Texting with a police friend of mine in Warwick, no electricity says it's pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Radar looked like it had 80-90mph winds at 2k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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