Ginx snewx Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Midnights FTLThat's my vacation days forecast, today turned out fabulous . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 I'm mildly concerned about the 4th. A definite tick north on guidance today... the 18z GEFS have come north quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 this summer is a lost cause. luckily next year will probably be a nina and ninas following ninos tend to be torches in summer We are now into July and I have not put air conditioners in. I don't love high heat and humidity but certainly appreciate it from a weather perspective and don't mind getting a bit of it because it feels pretty good if you are not laboring in it. It honestly already feels like summer's back is broken in New England even if we get a few token days in the 90's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 We are now into July and I have not put air conditioners in. I don't love high heat and humidity but certainly appreciate it from a weather perspective and don't mind getting a bit of it because it feels pretty good if you are not laboring in it. It honestly already feels like summer's back is broken in New England even if we get a few token days in the 90's. I do wonder if folks in eastern areas and down south felt that way prior to the first of the winter storms....... You may be right, but I'd give it through at least the third week of July before writing the summer off as a loss. August can still keep it out of the junk heap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Well we're in the 2nd month of met summer. Finals for June: BOS: -3.0 BDL: -1.0 PVD: -1.6 ORH: -0.6 July follows suit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 2, 2015 Author Share Posted July 2, 2015 Sounds like deep summer enroute SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGEAMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEADTO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FORA FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BYMODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON ANDTUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZESWILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH AROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THEREIS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...ANDENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMIDCONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Sounds like deep summer enroute SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO +14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS. MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. And here's the rest of the story: MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 7 days of bliss, we vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Lies. All I did was post about the ecens and the trough in the means. I'm pretty sure I mentioned that we'd get some shortwave ridging in between trough reinforcements. It looks warm, but dews look pleasant to, at worst, tolerable. 12z MEX for CON... Thu 81/55 Fri 80/47 Sat 79/49 Sun 84/52 Mon 87/58 Tue 83/59 Wed 77/61 That's about as nice as it gets. Nothing over the top with those numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Definitely some signs it could start turning more warm/muggy. Scoot mentioned the troughing into Cali already. Looks fairly par for July though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Definitely some signs it could start turning more warm/muggy. Scoot mentioned the troughing into Cali already. Looks fairly par for July though. The only thing that makes me a bit concerned, is the tendency for models to move north with LP and warm fronts. Have to be careful of lousy SE wind type days...but might offer a few of Ryan sunrise spinner events I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 7 days of bliss, we vacation. Enjoy...1 more week of work for me...then I have 2 weeks off..woohoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Enjoy...1 more week of work for me...then I have 2 weeks off..woohoo sweet, small day trips and staying home, staycation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 sweet, small day trips and staying home, staycation. A little R&R goes a long way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 2, 2015 Author Share Posted July 2, 2015 Lots of tree damage in Falmouth from that severe last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 A little R&R goes a long wayyep, coffee on the deck MPM style, I could get used to this. Pool was cool but refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 yep, coffee on the deck MPM style, I could get used to this. Pool was cool but refreshing. In a shawl and a rocking chair? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 sweet, small day trips and staying home, staycation. Road trip for me...driving to Disney for a week, then driving out to St. Louis for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 In a shawl and a rocking chair?lol, no shawl required today, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 lol, no shawl required today, wow Looks like a nice stretch for sure coming up, Been a wet 5 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Sipprell rains out Kevin's vacation... MIDWEEK: A RETURN OF WARM-MUGGY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A SWEEPING SYNOPTIC LOWDISTURBANCE FROM THE N. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALONGAND AHEAD. CONFIDENCE TOWARDS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.FROM THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE...ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE 0Z GEFSHAVE A 60% CHANCE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THENE-CONUS...AND NATURALLY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT...THETHREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.SHOULD THE TROUGHING PATTERN PERSIST AS A CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTICSOLUTIONS SUGGEST THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ROUNDS OF WET-WEATHERALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE. NOCERTAINTY ON OUTCOMES. WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH-OUT THE FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Meanwhile... The winter-version of the KFS took over Albany's grids today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 thundersnow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 2, 2015 Author Share Posted July 2, 2015 Except that it looks nice thru at least Wednesday. That dude makes it sound like a few rounds of severe storms are washing out a week. He gets way out of hand. Hope your vaca in RI is ok Ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 the gfs is hideous for the 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 We love dews in the 30s in July.... 73/39 this afternoon. "Shut up and dew with me." We'll dew upper 30s for dews any day. If we go calm tonight, we are already clear, the temp should plummet nicely. Lows ranging from 35-45F tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Quite a bit more of a summery appeal on this 18z run than I've seen on any GFS run this summer. Question is does it have legs. We've seen a lot of yoyo depictions as of late - that in itself probably means a pattern change looms there but what? Does it really heat up or just reload the last 2 year baseline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Time to throw in the towel on the 4th. GFS is a soaker, Euro ensembles are very bullish, RGEM now wet. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Man atleast 2 soaker 4ths in a row now, blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Time to throw in the towel on the 4th. GFS is a soaker, Euro ensembles are very bullish, RGEM now wet. Yuck. Yeah could be wet for the evening for sure in SNE. GFS has backed off big time from 18z for NNE, but pretty much consensus for rain later aftn into evening around here. I'm still up in the air for how much down in SNE though. I feel like 7/10 times the rain shield on these is always modeled more aggressive than actuality in the warm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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