powderfreak Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 July 7-14...persistence forecast haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 July 7-14...persistence forecast haha. Not good for the Heat Humpers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 COC on this board translates to late April and early May climo.I seriously doubt that minus a few sickos. 70-80 and 45-55 with sun is chamber wx to me and that's more like Jun 1 climo than May 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 I seriously doubt that minus a few sickos. 70-80 and 45-55 with sun is chamber wx to me and that's more like Jun 1 climo than May 1. I don't think many realize just how sh**ty our late April climo really is. ORH doesn't average 60F for daily high until 4/29. BOS is like 4/25...and 70F is like a month later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 I don't think many realize just how sh**ty our late April climo really is. ORH doesn't average 60F for daily high until 4/29. BOS is like 4/25...and 70F is like a month later. No argument from me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Not good for the Heat Humpers Again... I don't it doesn't seem like you guys know how to use that product. Not trying to be adversarial but that is posting N/S for southern New England, which means, 'even chance for above and below' That blue and orange coloring doesn't mean [necessarily] 'hot' vs 'cold' They mean that odds favor one or the other. 30 % above 50/50 chance for above normal or below normal temperatures is not hugely convincing. It does get more impressive as the expectation gets closer to 70%, but even that means failure to attain the in situ outlook 30% of the time. Add in that chaos changes outlooks out in time, makes all that increasingly more dubious for the other reason(s). That could in fact end up being Kevin's wet dream of 84/72 every day with thunderstorms/periodic severe and still be a very solid outlook for SNE. May not be "hot" per se, but that's not a cool outlook in the same vane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 That product has changed a bit over the past couple years. It used to have "equal chances" for all 3 options where it now says "normal". Yeah, they define it as a probabilistic outlook, but I think you can read between the lines a bit and assume that this is their thinking for a temp anomaly forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 That product has changed a bit over the past couple years. It used to have "equal chances" for all 3 options where it now says "normal". Yeah, they define it as a probabilistic outlook, but I think you can read between the lines a bit and assume that this is their thinking for a temp anomaly forecast. Heh, in their defense, they did mention persistence ...annnnd, I don't think anyone would argue that we have persistently NOT had a summer yet this year, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Heh, in their defense, they did mention persistence ...annnnd, I don't think anyone would argue that we have persistently NOT had a summer yet this year, period. heh...can't argue with that. I talked to my mom on the phone today and she mentioned how hot and muggy it was. I just laughed. It was 75/57 at the time at mi casa. If we had 3-5 days of 95/75 right now I think half of the New England population would melt away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 That product has changed a bit over the past couple years. It used to have "equal chances" for all 3 options where it now says "normal". Yeah, they define it as a probabilistic outlook, but I think you can read between the lines a bit and assume that this is their thinking for a temp anomaly forecast. That's generally how I look at it. It's just one small bit of information and not taken overly seriously, but you know what they are trying to say with those maps. It's not perfect and it is a little confusing to most folks (the probability forecast), but you get the gist of what they are trying to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2015 Author Share Posted July 1, 2015 Looking slightly AN thru day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Looking slightly AN thru day 10 Well if you equate d5-7 with d1-10 yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Would not mind a 3 day shot in the 90s this month Good luck with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 I'm not sold on AN widespread quite yet. That trough means business. What you can't see, are individual s/w's that might cause stuff like low pressure moving up with its warm front and those days with moist SE winds...something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Worst song ever, and this thread is almost as bad. Actually has a nice 80's sound to it. As far as pop sh*t goes these days it's better than Niki Manaj and that awful song, Truffle Butter. Yes, look up Truffle Butter through Urban Dictionary, and know that this is what radio station's are playing and kids are enjoying. If I am listening to the radio I will take Shut Up and Dance with Me 10 x's out of 10 over most of the other sh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Also, PF's post came from NWS BTV and Jeff's response is also from NNE, so the neutral temp forecast for SNE is a bit less relevant, though it shows how easily the BN color could change farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2015 Author Share Posted July 1, 2015 With the trough flattening out over the next 10 days and flow going zonal and w/sw..it appears like after today's rains..we may go 7-10 days with little to no rain. Will be nice to dry things out..but hopefully we don't go back the other way. Also watch out for Monday/Tuesday next week of some sneaky upper 80's to near 90 wx places like BDL/TAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 "Sneaky" upper 80s at BDL in July. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 "Sneaky" upper 80s at BDL in July. lol Better get the "cooling centers" on standby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Better get the "cooling centers" on standby. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OFDANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR. THISCOMBINATION WILL LEAD TO A DANGEROUS SITUATION IN WHICH HEATILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OFF THE TARMAC...AND CHECK ON RELATIVESAND NEIGHBORS...ESPECIALLY THE ELDERLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2015 Author Share Posted July 1, 2015 "Sneaky" upper 80s at BDL in July. lol Considering all you have called for is Coc k swinging thru day 10..I think it's worth mentioning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Considering all you have called for is Coc k swinging thru day 10..I think it's worth mentioning A bird fart would get BDL to 90F+ some summers...but I agree it's going to get hotter than its been for a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 I realize you all are on pig-pile Kevin autopilot ...I don't want to get in the way of your fun and what he deserves... But, if perhaps only transient there is some growing chance for 90-like heat Monday and Tuesday. Perhaps you've covered, but the flow is changing leading into that time frame, toward that unlike we've seen perhaps all spring and summer thus far. With a temporary break-down of the -EPO plaguing the Alaskan sector that relaxation in all operational runs I have seen elongates the negative height anomalies over Canada. This has the consequence of normalizing heights more west-east along the 40th parallel, and in cadence we see a warmer 850mb medium evolve in the OV and up into our neck of the woods. Wouldn't be anything Sonoran/EML (yet), but if the flattening goes to actual ridge ..if perhaps only ill-modeled at this time, than we can discuss more. But lets get the lead pattern changes to verify - that's been a problem. We've seen starts and frets end up right back into a height nadir on several extended appeals this summer. I don't think the base-line tendency to have -EPO is gone either...but so long as it pulse relaxes, there's chance for seasonal heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 I realize you all are on pig-pile Kevin autopilot ...I don't want to get in the way of your fun and what he deserves... But, if perhaps only transient there is some growing chance for 90-like heat Monday and Tuesday. Perhaps you've covered, but the flow is changing leading into that time frame, toward that unlike we've seen perhaps all spring and summer thus far. With a temporary break-down of the -EPO plaguing the Alaskan sector that relaxation in all operational runs I have seen elongates the negative height anomalies over Canada. This has the consequence of normalizing heights more west-east along the 40th parallel, and in cadence we see a warmer 850mb medium evolve in the OV and up into our neck of the woods. Wouldn't be anything Sonoran/EML (yet), but if the flattening goes to actual ridge ..if perhaps only ill-modeled at this time, than we can discuss more. But lets get the lead pattern changes to verify - that's been a problem. We've seen starts and frets end up right back into a height nadir on several extended appeals this summer. I don't think the base-line tendency to have -EPO is gone either...but so long as it pulse relaxes, there's chance for seasonal heat. The EC gudiance tries to break down the PNA a bit with troughing near CA. Would lead to warmer weather out this way for sure. But as you said..not sure if that indeed reverts back to more +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Considering all you have called for is Coc k swinging thru day 10..I think it's worth mentioningLies. All I did was post about the ecens and the trough in the means. I'm pretty sure I mentioned that we'd get some shortwave ridging in between trough reinforcements.It looks warm, but dews look pleasant to, at worst, tolerable. 12z MEX for CON... Thu 81/55 Fri 80/47 Sat 79/49 Sun 84/52 Mon 87/58 Tue 83/59 Wed 77/61 That's about as nice as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Lies. All I did was post about the ecens and the trough in the means. I'm pretty sure I mentioned that we'd get some shortwave ridging in between trough reinforcements. It looks warm, but dews look pleasant to, at worst, tolerable. 12z MEX for CON... Thu 81/55 Fri 80/47 Sat 79/49 Sun 84/52 Mon 87/58 Tue 83/59 Wed 77/61 That's about as nice as it gets. It's been a tough summer for the high dew enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 this summer is a lost cause. luckily next year will probably be a nina and ninas following ninos tend to be torches in summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 this summer is a lost cause. luckily next year will probably be a nina and ninas following ninos tend to be torches in summer Maybe we can manage some severe later this summer to make up for weeks and weeks of COC wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Lies. All I did was post about the ecens and the trough in the means. I'm pretty sure I mentioned that we'd get some shortwave ridging in between trough reinforcements. It looks warm, but dews look pleasant to, at worst, tolerable. 12z MEX for CON... Thu 81/55 Fri 80/47 Sat 79/49 Sun 84/52 Mon 87/58 Tue 83/59 Wed 77/61 That's about as nice as it gets. sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Lies. All I did was post about the ecens and the trough in the means. I'm pretty sure I mentioned that we'd get some shortwave ridging in between trough reinforcements. It looks warm, but dews look pleasant to, at worst, tolerable. 12z MEX for CON... Thu 81/55 Fri 80/47 Sat 79/49 Sun 84/52 Mon 87/58 Tue 83/59 Wed 77/61 That's about as nice as it gets. Midnights FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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