HoarfrostHubb Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 BOX only gives me a 30% chance of showers Sat on the p n c But their headlines look ominous Yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 the gfs is hideous for the 4th Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 3, 2015 Author Share Posted July 3, 2015 Well hopefully if it does rain it holds off until afternoon or evening and most of the day is partly sunny . Lot of dry air .. Maybe that will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Nice lower 40s in NNE today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Well hopefully if it does rain it holds off until afternoon or evening and most of the day is partly sunny . Lot of dry air .. Maybe that will help I think it's overcast through most of the day but there is a lot of dry air in low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Damn...euro caved and is a lot wetter than 12z. That went into the crapper quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Nice lower 40s in NNE todayBML with 37 this AM. Happy July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 I could be wrong, but I do wonder if it's overdone a bit. I guess we will see what 12z does. However even some rain is a bummer for outdoor stuff. Looks like GFS deformation band is the only 12z model showing this for now. Still think it's all overdone as usual, but we should wait until euro before making decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Re the Fourth... with Scott - classic model over-production of baroclinic instability combined with field of study failure to recognize convection tainting grid points. Thing is ..convective feed-back isn't always wrong. Have to see, but looks suspiciously over-done in the operational GFS and even the Euro for that matter. As well, ...tho much maligned as a tool, the NAM does have very good convective initiation and seeing it be zippo on QPF tomorrow can be: one, either it is correcting for the zealous globals; or two, it is missing synoptic forcing altogether. I tend to think it is the first option in this case. It's an interesting tho excruciatingly nerdy model contest. Else, it still seems the models are having difficulty with the larger scaled flow construct over N/A for the middle and extended range. The 00z tele derivatives went back to the blocky vibe, but these 12z runs seem to be arriving going back the other way. The only thing at stake is the direction of temperature anomalies; not much else going on. Fantastic day for those who have it off today, tho - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 One of the top 10 days of the year. Most are off but sorry for those of you working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 It's a beaut down these parts today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Re the Fourth... with Scott - classic model over-production of baroclinic instability combined with field of study failure to recognize convection tainting grid points. Thing is ..convective feed-back isn't always wrong. Have to see, but looks suspiciously over-done in the operational GFS and even the Euro for that matter. As well, ...tho much maligned as a tool, the NAM does have very good convective initiation and seeing it be zippo on QPF tomorrow can be: one, either it is correcting for the zealous globals; or two, it is missing synoptic forcing altogether. I tend to think it is the first option in this case. It's an interesting tho excruciatingly nerdy model contest. Else, it still seems the models are having difficulty with the larger scaled flow construct over N/A for the middle and extended range. The 00z tele derivatives went back to the blocky vibe, but these 12z runs seem to be arriving going back the other way. The only thing at stake is the direction of temperature anomalies; not much else going on. Fantastic day for those who have it off today, tho - Euro is only a bit of rain to south coast now. GFS just looks overdone with crazy mid level fronto. I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Euro is only a bit of rain to south coast now. GFS just looks overdone with crazy mid level fronto. I hope. I'm growing confident in GFS wrongitude ... The scenario is/was fraught with reasons why. One basic one is that model depiction-instability was/is an alarm for phantom processing. We all know that. GFS (point of question) halved the QPF ..trend and code for BS. The Euro also wavering inside of any D4 gives pause. Wouldn't shock me if the region breaks toward it's partly sunny ...dim orb penetration through convection/synoptic debris sort of deal. Might keep the temps off full realization, but that's the way I'm leaning for tomorrow. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Can't believe I'm tracking guidance on a coastal low in July. What a summer. Among the worst I can remember, with today being a rare exception. 18z Nam, with all its caveats, made a huge jump north towards GFS compared to any prior runs, a soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Can't believe I'm tracking guidance on a coastal low in July. What a summer. Among the worst I can remember, with today being a rare exception. 18z Nam, with all its caveats, made a huge jump north towards GFS compared to any prior runs, a soaker. Heh, "coastal low" enhances the significance of that thing by a significant margin over what a 'coastal low' more typically characterizes/implies. Thwacking the coast with onshore flow and driving precipitation? In other words, hardly so... It's a weak wave on a decaying front that is being dubiously handled by all guidance. NAM 0 to gracing CT/RI with 3 to 5 hours of showers. The Euro went S and barely kisses the south coast beaches. And the GFS halved its QPF. At this point it's just as likely nothing happens at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Can't believe I'm tracking guidance on a coastal low in July. What a summer. Among the worst I can remember, with today being a rare exception. 18z Nam, with all its caveats, made a huge jump north towards GFS compared to any prior runs, a soaker. i'd take this summer over 2009 in a heart beat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Can't believe I'm tracking guidance on a coastal low in July. What a summer. Among the worst I can remember, with today being a rare exception. 18z Nam, with all its caveats, made a huge jump north towards GFS compared to any prior runs, a soaker. worst? We have had about 35 days of full sun low 80 low dews days since May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Heh, "coastal low" enhances the significance of that thing by a significant margin over what a 'coastal low' more typically characterizes/implies. Thwacking the coast with onshore flow and driving precipitation? Box has been calling this a "coastal low" for 24+ hrs... In any case, agree it's a weak wave and terrible handling on guidance, with a lot of forecasters flinching ("huge changes in forecast") this morning. Don't know how it performs in summer, but RGEM has been steady keeping SNE mostly dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 worst? We have had about 35 days of full sun low 80 low dews days since May Mostly a subjective observation that we've been rainier / cloudier / colder than average for June. But what stats can we use to objectify this? Is there a stat for monthly average daily cloud cover compared to normal? I know CDD / HDD had a significant departure below / above normal consistent with a colder June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Box has been calling this a "coastal low" for 24+ hrs... In any case, agree it's a weak wave and terrible handling on guidance, with a lot of forecasters flinching ("huge changes in forecast") this morning. Don't know how it performs in summer, but RGEM has been steady keeping SNE mostly dry. I've been on the downplay for this all day. I hope I am not wrong, but I don't expect much in the Boston area. Maybe lots of mid to high level clouds later..but I think it's dry. I just feel like the models sort of overplayed the rain to the north of the low. I've seen it many times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Box has been calling this a "coastal low" for 24+ hrs... In any case, agree it's a weak wave and terrible handling on guidance, with a lot of forecasters flinching ("huge changes in forecast") this morning. Don't know how it performs in summer, but RGEM has been steady keeping SNE mostly dry. Not 'you' per se ...but word choice/semantics by NWS doesn't help. heh, it's petty in the first place... Anyway, sat/rad suggests it comes up here - we'll see. As Ryan also said, we have dry air to overcome. This thing's progressive, and if it moves that fast it may be putting out QPF at cloud base but what makes it to the ground. Still, wouldn't mind replacing today with tomorrow. ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 I've been on the downplay for this all day. I hope I am not wrong, but I don't expect much in the Boston area. Maybe lots of mid to high level clouds later..but I think it's dry. I just feel like the models sort of overplayed the rain to the north of the low. I've seen it many times before. I know, you guys have been on top of this. And I'm normally off the AmWx grid during the summer barring severe... But a high-stakes forecast given hundreds of thousands of people in the open air tomorrow, and I totally get the inclination to sniff out a forecast change as soon as possible. 18z GFS dried out a bit but still going with more frontogenesis than the rest. I'm gonna be in open air the entire day, hope the dry air is underestimated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 I'm not sure if dry air is holding the rain back, the radar shield is pretty healthy coming out of central NY. Big thumbs down on the 4th. At least we had yesterday and tomorrow. 56.6/52, hopefully can break 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Yep will look at it later on but it definitely looks like a bust for me anyway. Sometimes radar can fool but I really find this particular situation hard to believe that's not coming through here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Looks a bit ragged but further north and west than I thought. At least some showers for many But it beats Arthur from last July 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Looks a bit ragged but further north and west than I thought. At least some showers for many But it beats Arthur from last July 4th It blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Sprinkles and drizzle as I cleaned the pool. Meh. 58.9/54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 that blob sure does look like it wants to come to the 4th of July party... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Radar looks like crap thank god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Today was never supposed to be beautiful, but it will be mostly dry in Boston IMO. Probably good chunk of SNE east of ct river. That rain in western areas was modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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