CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 Hey you could be right with dry forecast away from shore.. But this set up is totally different. There's no dry cool high to the northeast holding it at bay.. Dry air may never really make it south of the pike. Dews still 70 here. This has some things going for it that the 4th didn't This is more compact then the 4th...almost a MCV like feature. I also did not say dry. I said I could see some -RA near the pike...I just don't buy +RA at the pike. There is also a WNW-ESE look perhaps which puts areas further west in a better position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2015 Author Share Posted July 8, 2015 GFS north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 After looking things over it's pretty clear to me that's warm frontal driven ... I agree with the S arguments/bias correction therein, but that event acting as a pseudo warm boundary is destined to get N/E of SNE and in doing so, at any point there's even chances for convection to peel along it. That baser conceptual awareness is a partial nod back. In other words, I don't think a pure MCS reasoning/bias correction can apply, because it's not really the same thing. It can rain either way, given that evolution. Also, low probably heat wave for this weekend.. 850's of 12+C moderate to 15-17 C by later Saturday afternoon, and holds in warm sector through difused cool fropa next Monday night or Tuesday. The GFSX MOS is plugging away at 89/92/89 for those three days at KFIT, and Newark is 94/90/89! More over, the synoptics support a deep layer unidirection flow that is WNW for the first half of that period. ..sort of quasi climo set up for bringing heat into this region.. That flow tends to dry out ceilings and clear things up a bit ... through high sun and those 850s and higher morning launch temp. Would not shock me given the synoptics if the MOS products bust 2 or even 3 degrees cool. It's a risk given the season's tendency to under perform at least excuse imaginable, but this situation in coming doesn't really have any of those excuses. We'll see how it goes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2015 Author Share Posted July 8, 2015 Yeah I think it's possible we'll have to introduce thunderstorms to the pike tomorrow night. Pretty cool stuff going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 Yeah I think it's possible we'll have to introduce thunderstorms blase strata debris rains from the upper MA partty we were not invited to, to the pike tomorrow night. Pretty cool stuff going on Yup, pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 Good luck with thunder to the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 pwat plume from the great plains swamp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Well Boston is the dividing line. So you are right in that Lynn is north shore, and Weymouth would be south shore. One of those local geographical things...kind of like how Buffalo has the south towns...etc. Ok i understand. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 It still looks to me like the majority of guidance favors the heaviest rain to fall across the LHV into southern sections of the region. I would tend to favor a DXR, IJD line and southward for the heaviest rain in CT right now but still keep the possibility of the band shifting a bit further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Yeah. Get out and mow at 6z. He's a real trip. That image is basically the same solution, he's just being a QPF queen. Drill the Euro down to 13 km and it looks almost identical in QPF placement to the GFS from that run. Meteorology not modelology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Let me dig way back for some old DVN tools for MCS forecasting. I know a couple years ago they preferred the crazy uncle because it was less susceptible to convective feedback. This morning it was off to a pretty good start placing the complex near the IN/MI border. You obviously want a nice overlap of strong theta-e advection in the mid levels (here 850 mb) and divergence aloft (200 mb given that we're talking a deeper summer-time column). At 06z it had a good handle on the greatest MCS potential and heaviest QPF in northern IN. Fast forward to 06z Friday (tonight) and this is what the Ukie thinks. Best overlap is definitely southern New England, despite what some QPF output says. It will be interesting to see how it plays out, because guidance is truly all over the place. Congrats south coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Congrats south of the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Flood watches to the pike. Safe to say it's going to rain to Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 And what do you know..thunder MAIN ACTION FOR THE NIGHT WILL BE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRES PASSES ACROSS CT THEN HEADS SE OFF THE SCOAST OVERNIGHT. PWATS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...UP TO 2 TO 2.2INCHES...SO EXPECT TO SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Pretty hot day Saturday it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 And what do you know..thunder MAIN ACTION FOR THE NIGHT WILL BE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRES PASSES ACROSS CT THEN HEADS SE OFF THE S COAST OVERNIGHT. PWATS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...UP TO 2 TO 2.2 INCHES...SO EXPECT TO SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. Will Coastal Wx still dissent ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 It's mostly CT as we discussed yesterday being further west with that WNW to ESE trajectory. I still have some doubts about the pike, especially east of ORH. I still feel south coast is where the heavy rain is. Maybe bend that back into western CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Pretty hot day Saturday it would seem. We really have entered into a deep summer pattern. Nothing with high heat..but days and days of dews and 87-91..Kind of snuck up on some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Upper 80s in mid July? No way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Kevin will be 84 and BDL 88 in the middle of July, Stop the Presses folks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Euro is pretty wet. I will gladly take some rain, I just can't help model biases in play shoving rain too far north from overdoing warm advection and PVA as usual. Hopefully the low tracks over my head, but will be south of New England I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Euro is pretty wet. I will gladly take some rain, I just can't help model biases in play shoving rain too far north from overdoing warm advection and PVA as usual. Hopefully the low tracks over my head, but will be south of New England I think. Seems like it wants to come thru SW Mass or NW CT and sort of heads E/Se from there. Might even be a sneaky spinner threat undercover of darkness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Kevin will be 84 and BDL 88 in the middle of July, Stop the Presses folks!! Considering all the talks of coc ks and cool summer..I think it's noteworthy that the month is coming in AN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Considering all the talks of coc ks and cool summer..I think it's noteworthy that the month is coming in ANwe're running BN up here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 we're running BN up here so far. Do you think that continues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Seems like it wants to come thru SW Mass or NW CT and sort of heads E/Se from there. Might even be a sneaky spinner threat undercover of darkness If you look at the hires models on psu ewall site from 00z, you can see that heavy strip modeled with meh rain to the north. That's what I could see only shifted towards the south a bit. Hope I'm wrong because I would like some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Do you think that continues?Probably not, but it doesn't look overly torchy either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Upper 80s in mid July? No way!brutal honesty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Probably not, but it doesn't look overly torchy either.very normal it appears. 2 year 90 degree anniversary July 13th. The pattern changed the next week and we have not looked back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 If you look at the hires models on psu ewall site from 00z, you can see that heavy strip modeled with meh rain to the north. That's what I could see only shifted towards the south a bit. Hope I'm wrong because I would like some rain. why? It's been wet as hell lately....mold and mushrooms showing up all over my yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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