June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

[powderfreak]

Nice visible satellite image this evening.

 

[moneypitmike]

First flakes--er drops--at the Pit.

 

60.1/51

[Baroclinic Zone]

It be raining in the tropics.

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[Damage In Tolland]

Sprinkles started at 6:00. Steady rain 7:30. What a win . Applying aloe now

[Ginx snewx]

Sprinkles started at 6:00. Steady rain 7:30. What a win . Applying aloe now

no kids in the pool in the pic you posted said it all, chilly cloudy low dew day

[nzucker]

Been pouring here north of NYC and looks to intensify as the band in southern NJ swings up the coast...

[CT Rain]

no kids in the pool in the pic you posted said it all, chilly cloudy low dew day

Yeah looked like an awful day for a pool party lol

[weatherwiz]

Can't ignore the radar tomorrow morning, especially between about 9z and 15z say for SE CT, southern RI, and far SE MA.  There is a pretty decent inversion being modeled but above the inversion some potential for a few hundred J of elevated instability.  

[dendrite]

Difference between human augmented and stand alone ASOS/AWOS sites. I believe we only have PSM and BGR in our local area that will augment clouds.

I've seen MHT throw in the occasional 25kft layer. BOS sometimes augments in 30-35kft. They're the only site I've seen go above 25kft.

Edit...looks like MHT has consistent 12-25kft obs now. Maybe the planned 25kft ceilometers are finally arriving.

[Bostonseminole]

60/59 .01 in the bucket

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[dendrite]

Someone may as well start an obs thread.

[Lava Rock]

Flood cancel. 0.48" and the back edge is in sight

[weathafella]

Theough yesterday:

BOS: -2.3

BDL: -0.3

PVD: -1.0

ORH: +0.1

With today being much below everywhere it looks like a good bet for all 4 to be minus.

[dendrite]

The Jun avg max temps are close to a lock to finish cooler than the May avg max temps at many sites across the region.

[OceanStWx]

BUF with 0.68" in 3-hours and over an inch of rain this afternoon.  Looks like a lot of the upstate NY sites are getting a good 3-hour burst of around a half inch with that leading WAA (?) band.

 

If you take winter climo with these...the dry slot will come in a little earlier than expected and the bulk of the event happens in like a 6-hour thump.  Like winter forecasts for 12-24" in central NY turn into 8-12" in like 6 hours then dry slot followed by 1-3" of showery stuff... as the models were a little too aggressive with QPF in the isentropic lift.

 

We always fall for that trap. Though I think we tried to stay on the conservative side of QPF forecasts to start around here. Forecasts seems to have worked out well enough.

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I might never break 80 again

[dendrite]

I might never break 80 again

I thought summer locked in 2 months ago???

[CoastalWx]

I thought summer locked in 2 months ago???

Sunny aftn, all 4 AN....fail like a NASA rocket launch.

[dendrite]

Sunny aftn, all 4 AN....fail like a NASA rocket launch.

Later we spin....just not weather wise.

[Damage In Tolland]

Sunny aftn, all 4 AN....fail like a NASA rocket launch.

Noone that I know of ever said all 4 AN.. BDL still will come in above with the warmth the next 3 days..or at least maybe right at normal

[dendrite]

Noone that I know of ever said all 4 AN.. BDL still will come in above with the warmth the next 3 days..or at least maybe right at normal

Well BDL will be below after today...then you have 2 more days. MOS is slightly below avg the next 2 for BDL.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well BDL will be below after today...then you have 2 more days. MOS is slightly below avg the next 2 for BDL.F

 

For some reason i was thinking today was the 27th..Yeah admittedly only 2 days will be difficult to get back above. 

 

Either way..if you like warmth and humidity you have to like the look of the pattern the next 2 weeks with trough axis setting up to the west and us on the Sw flow side

[dendrite]

For some reason i was thinking today was the 27th..Yeah admittedly only 2 days will be difficult to get back above. 

 

Either way..if you like warmth and humidity you have to like the look of the pattern the next 2 weeks with trough axis setting up to the west and us on the Sw flow side

Well I'm all set with these crappy Sundays. Today looked miserable up here for awhile so I figure we may as well go extreme and sneak a high in the mid 50s. I'll take a May repeat in July with near normal mins and torchy highs.

[weathafella]

For some reason i was thinking today was the 27th..Yeah admittedly only 2 days will be difficult to get back above. 

 

Either way..if you like warmth and humidity you have to like the look of the pattern the next 2 weeks with trough axis setting up to the west and us on the Sw flow side

It's already below through yesterday and will be WAY below today and at best normal the final 2 days of the month.

[weathafella]

Medium range gfs cleaned euros clock on the cold wedge today.

[dendrite]

I haven't done the number crunching, but if it wasn't for May I'd assume we may have been able to make a run at coldest year on record in some spots.

[weathafella]

For some reason i was thinking today was the 27th..Yeah admittedly only 2 days will be difficult to get back above. 

 

Either way..if you like warmth and humidity you have to like the look of the pattern the next 2 weeks with trough axis setting up to the west and us on the Sw flow side

Ensemble products relax the coolness before strengthening it again. July looks to complete the first half aob.

[CoastalWx]

I feel bad for those who thought a nice day after 2pm.

[weathafella]

I feel bad for those who thought a nice day after 2pm.

The sun will break through at 7:30 and someone will be applying aloe on his balls claiming victory.

[Lava Rock]

The sun will break through at 7:30 and someone will be applying aloe on his balls claiming victory.

Trying not to picture this