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June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Same to you and all the guys. I'm enjoying my breakfast in bed and kids jumping on me and giving me their hand made cards and gifts. One of my kids framed a picture they made of me with a button recording their voice, I love my Dad, he's super cool and the best Dad in the world". Brought a big smile to my face.

so sweet
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powderfreak

powderfreak

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With today's 1.50"+ rainfall at the Mountain Operations Center, I'm assuming the Co-Op will come in with at least that amount, if not more.  That would put Mansfield around 12.5" of rainfall for the month, and the record is 15.28" in 1998 (another Nino June?). 

 

Looking at guidance it doesn't look like there's enough convective chances to get the additional 2.5-3" to set the wettest June record in the next 9 days.   

 

Here down in town I'm at 9.11" for the month with 0.55" today.  The mountain tripled my rainfall today.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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June 1998 was very wet in SNE too. Parts of the area just s and SW of BOS had over a foot. That was a niño but was beginning to weaken rather than strengthen. Still had influence on the pattern I bet,

 

Yeah I figured it must've been on its way out as it would've been after the 1997-1998 Nino winter.

 

Was interesting though to see that June as the rainfall record for the MMNV1 Co-Op, but sounds like the heavy rain was more widespread in New England in 1998.  

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Yeah I figured it must've been on its way out as it would've been after the 1997-1998 Nino winter.

Was interesting though to see that June as the rainfall record for the MMNV1 Co-Op, but sounds like the heavy rain was more widespread in New England in 1998.

We had two really impressive rain events. Both were these warm front stalled with training echo deals. I was in Boston for the first one. The green line by Fenway actually flooded. Pure chaos with random pink bolts coming down with the rain. I think that also gave the Charles River in Dover one of their highest crests ever.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I don't know/think this particular longer term (relative to intermediate-scaled seasonal dry spell, I should say) can really be physically drilled into ENSO ... or any other more hemispheric teleconnector, air, land or sea.  

 

It was almost entirely a timing related matter with the happenstance of a Bill entering a the westerlies during an era when a SE ridge would equally, probablistically have occurred regardless of hemispheric signals.  This is just a 'pick-and-roll' event in the great b-ball game in the sky and doesn't really represent the whole game.  

 

In fact, I'm sure of it... "maybe" one can say fledgling NINOs make SE ridge more likely in summer, therefore ... a presence of a wayward Bill may also those be served better chance to curve N around said ridge ... to pummel the upper MA/SNE with a 12 hour rain event.. .but again, that whole 'game' is just as likely played during any June regardless of governing parametric.  

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weathafella

weathafella

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Through 6/20:

BOS: -2.9

ORH: -0.6

BDL: -0.5

PVD: -1.9

Face it Kevin, the first half of summer will be cool given the pattern moving forward. June will end up at or increased from those departure with mildly above Monday through Wednesday and much below for the weekend and beyond. July looks cool to start.

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weathafella

weathafella

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Much below? So like -10 .. I think I'll take the over if it's sunny nw flow

It's hard for it to be sunny when it's raining frequently as guidance shows moving forward beyond this week. Much below is >-5. Where did you get the -10? So a month finishing -7 is mildly below?...lol.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Through 6/20:

BOS: -2.9

ORH: -0.6

BDL: -0.5

PVD: -1.9

Face it Kevin, the first half of summer will be cool given the pattern moving forward. June will end up at or increased from those departure with mildly above Monday through Wednesday and much below for the weekend and beyond. July looks cool to start.

 

 

Let's table that (bold..). 

 

I'm noticing some interesting variability entering ...if perhaps subtle, in both the teleconnectors and operational runs - the ones that count, that is.

 

The GFS and Euro are showing less N-stream incursion into the OV latitudes over recent cycles, ...opting for more of a nodal weakness between two dominant ridges near 100W and 60W.  That "weakness" that naturally results from wave-space arguments, "might" have been over zealously active in the previous runs...  Weakness' are not cold transports usually -

 

This could all flag a possible mere shear axis verifying there, as opposed to a full on trough -- which was a bit at odds with climo to begin with.  

 

Meanwhile, the depth of the NAO has relaxed some in the teles, as has the explosion through the stratosphere of the PNA, too.  This latter facet may be related to MJO ..if the surrounding atmosphere supports it's influence.  It's in the area of the wave space that might promote more eastern N/A ridging.  This may be off-setting the erstwhile +PNAP some.

 

This is new.  I wouldn't by any means say there's a pattern change in the extended (just yet) but I would suggest watching that.  I just got done yesterday, posting what I thought the pattern would look like for the next two weeks;  perfect opportunity for chaos to deliberately intervene and f-up a perfectly good analysis ;)

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tamarack

tamarack

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Yeah I figured it must've been on its way out as it would've been after the 1997-1998 Nino winter.

 

Was interesting though to see that June as the rainfall record for the MMNV1 Co-Op, but sounds like the heavy rain was more widespread in New England in 1998.  

 

Farmington coop had 13.96", rainiest June and #4 for any month - tops is 12/1969 with 15.44", thanks to the mega snow-to-rain event on 26-28th.  The 1998 rains included their 2nd greatest calendar day precip, 5.72" on the 14th.  (12/69 is also #1 there, with 5.99" on the 28th.  Both records came with TOBS 7 AM, so appear a day behind.)

 

That big (7.8" storm total) June '98 event brought the Sandy River to its 5th highest flow on record, and the greatest for any with no snowmelt contribution.

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