June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like all 4 BN.

Ill take that bet. Not buying 50's and 60's for highs under sun in June. Euro seems to be in error bias of digging trough too sharp

[Damage In Tolland]

Starting to wonder if most of SNE ends up in the subsidence zone Sunday with heavy rains NYC south and NNE with forcing/ front. Certainly some growing support for that aside from Euro

[CoastalWx]

Ill take that bet. Not buying 50's and 60's for highs under sun in June. Euro seems to be in error bias of digging trough too sharp

 

Who said 50s and 60s? Well if the models are right, could be 60s in higher el next week.

[dendrite]

Who said 50s and 60s? Well if the models are right, could be 60s in higher el next week.

He's a trip. 50s and sun are basically impossible this time of year.

[Damage In Tolland]

Who said 50s and 60s? Well if the models are right, could be 60s in higher el next week.

Euro has days of 60's. I'll take the over if it's sunny with w wind

[CoastalWx]

GFS is troughy next week too. Whether it's 68 or 74 is up for debate...but it's BN. This looks to continue into part of July.

[CT Rain]

Euro has days of 60's. I'll take the over if it's sunny with w wind

It does? Try 70s all week

[dendrite]

Days and days of troughiness.

[Damage In Tolland]

Days and days of troughiness.

image.jpg

75-80 with pool chilling water temps at night. Could be worse with NE flow and rain..We'll grin and bear it and hope that summer decides to show this year

[Damage In Tolland]

GFS and Euro both south with hvy rain Sunday now. Interesting trends..Father's Day saved maybe?

[weathafella]

Only BOS..other 3 above thankfully

Through 6/18:

BOS: -3.4

ORH: -0.8

PVD: -2.2

BDL: -0.5

With mostly aob in the progs, bn is a good bet for all 4. 1992esque?

[CoastalWx]

If it's not heavy rain, it's low clouds. Looks like crap.

[Ginx snewx]

Had a rain shower overnight, cloudy 66

[Whineminster]

To the untrained eye this pattern is just like the past winter....here in the NE we're BN while the rest of the country is roasting nicely. 

[Damage In Tolland]

If it's not heavy rain, it's low clouds. Looks like crap.

the idea and forecast of all day soakings and washout is gone

[Dan]

Looks like the at or below normal June continues til the end.  Coc weather continues.

 

 

THEREAFTER...NOT LOOKING SUMMER-LIKE. MID-LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE
ZONAL-FLOW REGIME IS SHUNTED S GRADUALLY BY A POLAR-ORIGIN WAVE OUT
OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION SWEEPING +8-10C H85 AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
SO AN INITIAL IMPULSE OF WET-WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK-SYNOPTIC
LOW IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AND JUST
SHOWERS. COULD SEE RENEWED ACTIVITY TUESDAY WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
DESTABILIZING MAINLY ACROSS THE N AND W INTERIOR PRIOR TO A STRONG
COLD FRONT DIGGING S PUSHING THE BETTER MOIST-CONVERGENT FLOW REGIME
W TO E ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY. IN THE END
COULD PERHAPS SEE A CHILLY MONTH OF JUNE OF WHICH TEMPS PRESENTLY
ARE AVERAGING 3 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH THE 18TH.

[Ginx snewx]

Looks like the at or below normal June continues til the end.  Coc weather continues.

 

 

THEREAFTER...NOT LOOKING SUMMER-LIKE. MID-LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE

ZONAL-FLOW REGIME IS SHUNTED S GRADUALLY BY A POLAR-ORIGIN WAVE OUT

OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION SWEEPING +8-10C H85 AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

SO AN INITIAL IMPULSE OF WET-WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK-SYNOPTIC

LOW IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AND JUST

SHOWERS. COULD SEE RENEWED ACTIVITY TUESDAY WITH THE ENVIRONMENT

DESTABILIZING MAINLY ACROSS THE N AND W INTERIOR PRIOR TO A STRONG

COLD FRONT DIGGING S PUSHING THE BETTER MOIST-CONVERGENT FLOW REGIME

W TO E ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT BELOW-NORMAL

TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY. IN THE END

COULD PERHAPS SEE A CHILLY MONTH OF JUNE OF WHICH TEMPS PRESENTLY

ARE AVERAGING 3 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH THE 18TH.

AMOUT?

[Ginx snewx]

June so far, and whats ahead. Return of the pattern that has persisted since 13?, it took a May vacation

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like the at or below normal June continues til the end. Coc weather continues.

THEREAFTER...NOT LOOKING SUMMER-LIKE. MID-LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE

ZONAL-FLOW REGIME IS SHUNTED S GRADUALLY BY A POLAR-ORIGIN WAVE OUT

OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION SWEEPING +8-10C H85 AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

SO AN INITIAL IMPULSE OF WET-WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK-SYNOPTIC

LOW IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AND JUST

SHOWERS. COULD SEE RENEWED ACTIVITY TUESDAY WITH THE ENVIRONMENT

DESTABILIZING MAINLY ACROSS THE N AND W INTERIOR PRIOR TO A STRONG

COLD FRONT DIGGING S PUSHING THE BETTER MOIST-CONVERGENT FLOW REGIME

W TO E ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT BELOW-NORMAL

TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY. IN THE END

COULD PERHAPS SEE A CHILLY MONTH OF JUNE OF WHICH TEMPS PRESENTLY

ARE AVERAGING 3 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH THE 18TH.

Thats referring to BOS area

[Dan]

Thats referring to BOS area

The last line refers to Boston, but last I checked, Taunton's area covers Boston, Worcester, Bradley and Providence, does it not.

[Damage In Tolland]

The last line refers to Boston, but last I checked, Taunton's area covers Boston, Worcester, Bradley and Providence, does it not.

Their AFD"s are very Boston centric..as they think everyone that reads them lives in or around there. Obviously it's not a torch pattern..but the only place likely to finish BN for the month is BOS..after today BDL and possibly ORH will be AN

[Dan]

Their AFD"s are very Boston centric..as they think everyone that reads them lives in or around there. Obviously it's not a torch pattern..but the only place likely to finish BN for the month is BOS..after today BDL and possibly ORH will be AN

 

I don't see it, maybe BDL will, no one else will.

[weathafella]

Kevin hanging onto driftwood as an ocean of cool gets ready to wash over him.

[Whineminster]

The highs we're getting are "cheap" highs too....when the sun pops out for a bit at high noon and we get a brief burst of insolation to spike the mercury.  The mornings are cold and so are the evenings. 

[ORH_wxman]

Their AFD"s are very Boston centric..as they think everyone that reads them lives in or around there. Obviously it's not a torch pattern..but the only place likely to finish BN for the month is BOS..after today BDL and possibly ORH will be AN

 

 

I don't see it, maybe BDL will, no one else will.

 

 

Kevin hanging onto driftwood as an ocean of cool gets ready to wash over him.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Math has never been Kevin's strongsuit....ORH would need a +18 today to be above normal for the month after today and BDL needs a +10.

 

BDL's low this morning was 63 (a +4)...so they would need a +16 high temp...which is 97F.

 

ORH had a low of 60F thus far (which may even get counterfeited before midnight)...only +3. So ORH would need a high temp of +35 or 110F to be above normal for the month after today.

 

 

I think I'll take the under.

[Typhoon Tip]

To the untrained eye this pattern is just like the past winter....here in the NE we're BN while the rest of the country is roasting nicely. 

 

It is to the trained eye, as well... 

 

I hammered this point back in Feb/March, regarding last summer and apparently continuing this season, where the winter merely relaxed due to seasonal stressing on the atmosphere by hemispheric insolation (solar).  

 

In other words, the prediction for the summer is still in tact ...despite some minor distractions back in May, that the pattern would tend to resemble the same pattern of the preceding winters.   Hell, we keep churning out operational Euro and GFS runs with extended range EPO blocks!  IN JUNE

 

I.e., not summer.  

 

And we are not having one.  Don't kid your selves people.  If we were having any semblance of a summer, as provided by any inkling of a pattern that remotely looked like a summer pattern, we'd be enjoying the same hot house Earth most credible sources keep turning out ...month after month after month of these "hottest in history" months.   

 

For whatever reason ... the balancing of the flow over the entire hemisphere is requiring specifically and seemingly surgically, eastern North American be an incredible thermal sink relative to all.  Otherwise, everyone that is everywhere else (virtually) is plagued by warmer than normal. 

[Ginx snewx]

Nam crushes

[IsentropicLift]

Nam crushes

[Ginx snewx]

That will overflow my pool

[Typhoon Tip]

 

 

Boy is that narrow...  That's a dart throw...  20 mile wiggles either side of that bee-line takes communities from pavement wet to creek overflows...