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June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
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Take out the first 2 days this month.. What do you get?

 

While the whole month is -3.3 at my place, June 3-16 is -1.7, probably closer to -1 at Farmington coop.  Given that Sat morning may be near 40, I'd expect to still be about the same departure after Sunday.  One day in 3 or 4 to water the garden with 75/50 in between - I could take that all summer, though I'd prefer than some good crackling TS be included.  Would not do much for the cukes and zuccs, but the rest of the garden would be fine and bushwhacking thru the thickets would be a lot more pleasant than doing it in HHH.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

The 12z Euro ensemble mean is a complete soaker for Sunday from NJ to NNE. Should we toss Kevin?

my guess is you're broad brushing it and it's not raining the entire day over that entire region. It's probably something that has downpours and storms starting in your area in the morning and that same deal progresses north and east during the afternoon
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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
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my guess is you're broad brushing it and it's not raining the entire day over that entire region. It's probably something that has downpours and storms starting in your area in the morning and that same deal progresses north and east during the afternoon

LOL

 

Steady rain into NYC around sunrise and into SNE before lunchtime.

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mob1

mob1

Posted
Posted

In a NW flow that comes SE correct? Same idea as winter..if Canada is torched.. we torch

Phil has 75-80 on the Cape much of next week. That's not a cool pattern

It's 48 in Winnipeg right now, they might reach the mid 80's max with those anomolies, maybe if the "Saharan Vortex" can dive SE...
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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

In a  NW flow that comes SE correct? Same idea as winter..if Canada is torched.. we torch

 

Phil has 75-80 on the Cape much of next week. That's not a cool pattern

There will be a couple of warm days but we are talking about the rest of the month in the context of departures not 2 or 3 warm days in a sea of normal to cool. Look at 5h, 591 ridge in the SW then ridging into the Pac Nw, troughing in the east, period of neg Nao, all signs to what Scooter described yesterday, near normal with some stratiform rain cool days thrown in. Does not preclude a near 80 or so day or even a 85 at BDL, on whole though its cool to near normal as currently modeled.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

There will be a couple of warm days but we are talking about the rest of the month in the context of departures not 2 or 3 warm days in a sea of normal to cool. Look at 5h, 591 ridge in the SW then ridging into the Pac Nw, troughing in the east, period of neg Nao, all signs to what Scooter described yesterday, near normal with some stratiform rain cool days thrown in. Does not preclude a near 80 or so day or even a 85 at BDL, on whole though its cool to near normal as currently modeled.

Yeah these s/w's keep diving in and digging and we keep recarving out that trough and dropping in decent cP sfc highs. The height gradient in the east has been running stronger than usual with the QB trough and SE ridge. That extra confluence is probably helping out these sfc highs.

The low dews have been nice. You know the muggies will eventually come so we may as well hold them off for as long as possible.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
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In a NW flow that comes SE correct? Same idea as winter..if Canada is torched.. we torch

Phil has 75-80 on the Cape much of next week. That's not a cool pattern

It's not the same as winter when we're dependent on arctic air from Canada. Warmer than normal temperatures in western Canada means little this time of year...departures are more dependent on overcast versus sunny conditions, rain, and troughing in Quebec versus the SE ridge and West Atlantic ridge. It seems the trough to the north is somewhat dominating the pattern, especially for New England.
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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It's not the same as winter when we're dependent on arctic air from Canada. Warmer than normal temperatures in western Canada means little this time of year...departures are more dependent on overcast versus sunny conditions, rain, and troughing in Quebec versus the SE ridge and West Atlantic ridge. It seems the trough to the north is somewhat dominating the pattern, especially for New England.

 

Yep, shorter wavelengths and a weaker PJ make the comparison to winter very flimsy. Even in winter...you can get patterns that are cold here and warm in Winnipeg. Just look at Dec 2002 or Dec 2005. Cold here and a torch in Winnipeg.

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nzucker

nzucker

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Yep, shorter wavelengths and a weaker PJ make the comparison to winter very flimsy. Even in winter...you can get patterns that are cold here and warm in Winnipeg. Just look at Dec 2002 or Dec 2005. Cold here and a torch in Winnipeg.

Sometimes warmth in western Canada indicates a +PNA and favorable Pacific pattern, which can make us cold and especially farther south like DCA. February 2010 had ridging and warmth over Canada, but northerly flow kept NYC south cold. Usually western Canada warmth is due to +PNA/+EPO which brings modified polar air south.

Got down into the upper 50s in Westchester last night. It's been a fairly cool week with a high of 70F Monday, 75F Tuesday, and low 70s today. Heck of a way to run a torch as our averages are like 80/60 now.

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