powderfreak Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 18z NAM is interesting for rain to heavy wet snow even down to the Berks and northern ORH Hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Euro ens are pretty darn cold right to the NCT border, should be a fun tracking system. It's going to snow to NYC..question is how much and time frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 It's going to snow to NYC..question is how much and time frames Mass Pike not L.I.E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 18z NAM is interesting for rain to heavy wet snow even down to the Berks and northern ORH Hills. Definitely interesting for the west slope areas. They'll cool the BL down quickly once those winds go N-NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Mass Pike not L.I.E. There will accumulating snow in the n burbs of NYC from this..you know the driill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 There will accumulating snow in the n burbs of NYC from this..you know the driill N burbs? like socksville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 N burbs? like socksville? Like maybe Newburgh north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 GFS crushes NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 The GFS was clearly on Crack for Sunday night. takes away the snow threat for most of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Some snow Sunday night on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 The GFS was clearly on Crack for Sunday night. takes away the snow threat for most of SNE ??? Still drops 1-3 inches for most of N Ct over into interior SE Mass and more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 18z NAM is interesting for rain to heavy wet snow even down to the Berks and northern ORH Hills. If only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Uninspiring GFS run for Sunday. Not much to play with there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Interesting trends for next week. Regarding Sunday night, what looks like a SWFE, one obvious caution flag, and others chime in on how relevant this is: For SNE, most of the models do not (yet) show intense snowfall rates. This ain't a blue bomb. We are talking 1-3 / 4-6 inches (depending on model) stretched over 6+ hours. The clown map depictions are less relevant in April with the obvious diurnal issues of sun angle and questionable boundary layer. So 1/2" / hr rates over 8 hours may add up to 4 inches in February, but may be a coating at best during the daytime in April. Pretty much what happened in Boston area with the March 20-21 system. 12z GFS has better rates and might get it done. 18z and other models, I'm cautious. Just tempering excitement until we see more support for something like 12z GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Interesting trends for next week. Regarding Sunday night, what looks like a SWFE, one obvious caution flag, and others chime in on how relevant this is: For SNE, most of the models do not (yet) show intense snowfall rates. This ain't a blue bomb. We are talking 1-3 / 4-6 inches (depending on model) stretched over 6+ hours. The clown map depictions are less relevant in April with the obvious diurnal issues of sun angle and questionable boundary layer. So 1/2" / hr rates over 8 hours may add up to 4 inches in February, but may be a coating at best during the daytime in April. Pretty much what happened in Boston area with the March 20-21 system. 12z GFS has better rates and might get it done. 18z and other models, I'm cautious. Just tempering excitement until we see more support for something like 12z GFS run. It's currently modeled for mostly overnight for most folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Heavy ZR is almost impossible in April, unless you live in Albany like PF did during his Napril ice event....east of the berks...naso muchEuro Ens looked icy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 It's currently modeled for mostly overnight for most folks. That's fine, and these details are far off. But just tempering some of the excitement until we see more robust rates consistently depicted. Mar20-21 was progged by many models to give 2-4 inches, and we did get hours of frequently moderate snow that just amounted to a coating on cars in Boston metro. Lotta white rain. Only with heavier rates (like south coast) was any accumulation possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 I personally don't see any appreciable snow for most of us here in CT and RI. Sure, maybe a slushy coating in the NW Hills and NE Hills. Outside of that, forget it. CNE and NNE should clean up with this set up. And the idea that this snows to NYC or the Northern Suburbs of NYC is just plain silly IMO. But I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn last night, so maybe I'll be wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Euro snow map on Wxbell has ORH 10 IJD 4 Berks 10 Bos 4 Ray 5 BDL 2 everyone else north of that 10-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Euro snow map on Wxbell has ORH 10 IJD 4 Berks 10 Bos 4 Ray 5 BDL 2 everyone else north of that 10-14Wow....10-14" from the NH border points N? Close to the record.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Wow....10-14" from the NH border points N? Close to the record....PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 I personally don't see any appreciable snow for most of us here in CT and RI. Sure, maybe a slushy coating in the NW Hills and NE Hills. Outside of that, forget it. CNE and NNE should clean up with this set up. And the idea that this snows to NYC or the Northern Suburbs of NYC is just plain silly IMO. But I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn last night, so maybe I'll be wrong? Some have fogged goggles....ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 PM That map doesn't make sense considering the time of year in that it hits the CRV a little harder than it does interior ne MA. It won't verify like that. Otherwise, very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 That map doesn't make sense considering the time of year in that it hits the CRV a little harder than it does interior ne MA. It won't verify like that. I think it will come down to latitude, especially for nighttime snows. Proximity to the frigid Atlantic shouldn't be a problem. If MLs end up supporting snow, we snow. Otherwise, very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 It's going to snow to NYC..question is how much and time frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 That map doesn't make sense considering the time of year in that it hits the CRV a little harder than it does interior ne MA. It won't verify like that. I think it will come down to latitude, especially for nighttime snows. Proximity to the frigid Atlantic shouldn't be a problem. If MLs end up supporting snow, we snow. Otherwise, very reasonable. Well, the very crux of what I was getting at was that the ocean is not going to be much of a modifier at this juncture. That snowfall distribution is more suitable for December. Us only getting half of what ORH gets is very understandable give the time of year...no issues with that. If the bulk occurs at night, though, I could see it being a bit less dramatic. If anything, we could very well do better than the CTV owing to the fact that the effects of any downsloping can be accentuated at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Thanks a lot, btw, Steve... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Well, the very crux of what I was getting at was the the ocean is not going to be much of a modifier at this juncture. That is snowfall distribution more suitable for December. Us only getting half of what ORH gets is very understandable give the time of year...no issues with that. If the bulk occurs at night, though, I could see it being a bit less dramatic. Agreed. I wonder what the normal SST is now. Low to mid 40s? It's mid to upper 30s right now? I wonder if models factor in climo when forecasting the BL. Typically an April snowfall distribution would resemble one from December. Perhaps this year is the exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Some see what most do not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Agreed. I wonder what the normal SST is now. Low to mid 40s? It's mid to upper 30s right now? I wonder if models factor in climo when forecasting the BL. Typically an April snowfall distribution would resemble one from December. Perhaps this year is the exception. Well, again.....December, outside of SWFE, may very well favor the CRV over our area. Not this time of year, though....especially given the ssts in the mid-upper 30's, ass opposed to the low-mid 40's norm for early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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