CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Euro deterministic...BDL, high of 68F between 2-8pm Monday. Euro was really far north with the front. So was the GGEM. Yeah very toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Yeah very toasty. with clouds and 850"s +6? hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 with clouds and 850"s +6? hmmm If the euro is correct I could see a real torch on Monday. I know Kevin has locked in 3-6 but I think odds are definitely against measurable snow south of the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 If the euro is correct I could see a real torch on Monday. I know Kevin has locked in 3-6 but I think odds are definitely against measurable snow south of the pike I think the Euro is OTL but have said all along its ovah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 I think the Euro is OTL but have said all along its ovah Yeah 70 is unlikely but I don't really see a wintry threat either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Yeah 70 is unlikely but I don't really see a wintry threat either You did mention it yesterday as an outside chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 I'd agree, but if you were 12" from your record season, you'd care to. lol Well, I can see where that would work for you, I'm not close so i don't care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Man what a cluster on model guidance for next week...so many different solutions. Euro has some overrunning...then squashes everything, and then cuts a big rainer late week...other guidance says no. Keeps the front south. I would usually agree with some on here and say save a horse, But its had a broken leg on many events this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 I know it's the NAM, but I kind of agree with how it handles Sunday's overrunning precipitation. It sags the front around the Pike for a while, pushes it north and then snow develops from CNE points north. Nothing heavy, but an inch or two or three (mountain tops) could fall. IOW --- I'm not buying what the GFS is selling. I'm also not buying what the EURO is selling either. I can envision a bright overcast day Monday with temps in the low (maybe middle) 50s. Boring, nasty weather. I can't wait for the flip to solid springtime weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Yeah 70 is unlikely but I don't really see a wintry threat either Yeah I said outside chance for snow showers Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 GFS clown maps are pretty funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 GFS clown maps are pretty funny Doesn't seem too rediculous....it gives me 4", Euro game me 5". I'd probably hedge more towards 2" or so... I think the 00z took it all away, though. That was yesterday's 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Models are all over the place with weak disturbances along that front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Going to take a couple more days to sort it out it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Models are all over the place with weak disturbances along that front. GGEM looks tasty for mid-week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Models are all over the place with weak disturbances along that front. That is all you need to know at low elevations in April. We need it to congeal into a larger threat, or for everything to occur at night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 That is all you need to know at low elevations in April. We need it to congeal into a larger threat, or for everything to occur at night lol Weak disturbance can cause mod/heavy QPF though...so they still need to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 GGEM looks tasty for mid-week. Yeah it does. Would be nice for one of these to have a concise s/w and thump for 12 hrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 That is all you need to know at low elevations in April. We need it to congeal into a larger threat, or for everything to occur at night lol Weak meaning the look they have, but overrunning precip can produce in a narrow area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 I think Will said this yesterday, but then you have convection screwing around with the lows too. A lot of things for numerical guidance to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Weak meaning the look they have, but overrunning precip can produce in a narrow area. I was just about to respond with overrunning to Will, but it's tougher...I'd rather take my chances with a more potent SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 It would be fitting, though.....just epitomize the overall tenor of this season if the interior reached record territory by overcoming the odds stacked against it...April, weak waves, etc. This season has overcome some long, long odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 I think Will said this yesterday, but then you have convection screwing around with the lows too. A lot of things for numerical guidance to work out. I just want it to work that BDF out of the DC area next week, I'll be down there Tues-Fri and want some 60's/70's not 50's and fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 It would be fitting, though.....just epitomize the overall tenor of this season if the interior reached record territory by overcoming the odds stacked against it...April, weak waves, etc. This season has overcome some long, long odds. GGEM is pretty sweet even way out, geezus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 GGEM is pretty sweet even way out, geezus The long range GEM doesn't instill much confidence. The GFS is ok, too, but I wish that the 00z EURO didn't get beaten with the ugly stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 The 00z GGEM did not look as cold ... In fact, pick a model and time series, they're all oscillating that warm front/stationary front/cool front up and down in latitude by some 100 to 200 miles per cycle. This run happens to run back off toward timing QPF for winter fantasies, which may or may not be correct -- but point is, we don't know. Again, I say what I said three days go re caveat emptor on that boundary next week. Just be leery of it, because as NCEP has also noted, one helluva temp gradient 100 miles or less immediately astride that sucker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 The long range GEM doesn't instill much confidence. The GFS is ok, too, but I wish that the 00z EURO didn't get beaten with the ugly stick. Lol, zero confidence in all models but it is a sweet ass look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 W/e left, lots of precip next ten days up north, something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 W/e left, lots of precip next ten days up north, something to watch Congrats Eastport, Good thing it does not have far to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Pretty good look for snow pike north on Tues night on the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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