Damage In Tolland Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 They still look pretty bleak...unless you call a slushy coating perhaps at some point somewhere "Great?" NNE a different story, but not here in SNE. Go back to spring mode. Guess you haven't been looking in depth at things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Guess you haven't been looking in depth at things Which model(s) has you optimistic ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Paste bomb yea and I am good with it, been a great year and that looks nice for you guys who missed some good ones, hopefully a GEM solution works out. I am pretty much pulling a PF and checking out for anything robust here, sloppy seconds are still possible but think we are done. Caveat being around the tenth for a bowling ball but that would be a CNE deal it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 yea and I am good with it, been a great year and that looks nice for you guys who missed some good ones, hopefully a GEM solution works out. I am pretty much pulling a PF and checking out for anything robust here, sloppy seconds are still possible but think we are done. Caveat being around the tenth for a bowling ball but that would be a CNE deal it seems. You had a great week last week, Good thing i did not try hooking up with you last thurs, Been down since then with a nasty stomach bug, I was heading to Jackman saturday, But i may hold off and go early next week for a day trip once i see how this is going to play out, Will try to go between events up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Guess you haven't been looking in depth at things I don't see anything around SNE that looks great with regard to Snow chances Kevin...not one model looks great like you put it. Like Ray said, what model has you optimistic?? The Euro is days of cold rain, which is most likely what will happen if these systems pan out for the area with regard to precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 well certainly the overall setup favors northern New England but I can see how based on some of the dangling carrots that have been thrown out,particularly by the European model and its ensembles , that one can at least hold somewhat mild interest in the upcoming 10 days and monitor to see if anything comes to fruition. I can see how Kevin doesn't want to go completely into spring mode but its almost like you keep it in the back of your mind but don't get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 well certainly the overall setup favors northern New England but I can see how based on some of the dangling carrots that have been thrown out,particularly by the European model and its ensembles , that one can at least hold somewhat mild interest in the upcoming 10 days and monitor to see if anything comes to fruition. I can see how Kevin doesn't want to go completely into spring mode but its almost like you keep it in the back of your mind but don't get too excited. I don't disagree with any of this, but calling someone out for being skeptical is a little much.....especially someone from well south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Dynamics going on along that frontal zone as it creeps through. Even as of 06z the GFS/NAM initialize significant wave features in the flow still out over the lower GOA waters of the far E Pacific. It would be interesting should those features get sampled with more potency over this next 24 hours worth of run inputs. Looking at the last couple of days worht of runs ... it appears error is more borne of subtle run-to-run strength differences with those features rather than whether they will actually exist. Should more potency ride polarward, immediately astride the frontal position ... it will dictate placement and timing wrt to baroclinic wave initialization/intensity ... guidance to guidance as well. Tough call there. With no crystal ball to immediately correct for uncertainties as to how much potency will really be present with that S/W as she comes, it's really guess work as to whether that wave will get cranking in time to bring the fan-fare ball of dynamical tricks to flip seasons the way some of these guidance types have been trying to do. The NAM ideas of choking large aggregate 3-5 hour thumps ... particularly in elevations in the 00z and 06z ... despite inherent poor performance by that particular tool in the post 60-hour time ranges ... has merit in so much as the possibility cannot be declined. In the same, the GFS's revision back toward a flatter weaker detonation with only afterthought lighter QPF of more ANA (thus over painted...) structure of the 00z cannot be discounted either. I think I'm just going with the Euro seeing as this whole deal is inside of four days. The Euro's been more suspect in recent months to a year, sure ... but not so much so in my mind that it's typical wheel-house time range should be that much in question. Should things break stronger in accordance with uncertainties above, so be it. Also, I had mentioned a couple/few days ago, that the teleconnectors really support flatter more longitudinal constructs/morphologies for that scope, and that's still not changed. The 00z Euro and 00z GFS were not demonstratively different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 6z GFS is delightfully mild and showery for the system in question, a real bud popper. I'll ride it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 6z GFS is delightfully mild and showery for the system in question, a real bud popper. I'll ride it Probably a good choice. The vibe of this season has done a complete 360*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Probably a good choice. The vibe of this season has done a complete 360*. Yeah. That's a showery rain with temps in the 60s for Tuesday and Wednesday next week. I guess those polar highs to the north are no match for a 1004mb low pushing NE from DET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Yeah. That's a showery rain with temps in the 60s for Tuesday and Wednesday next week. I guess those polar highs to the north are no match for a 1004mb low pushing NE from DET. It depends on how strong the s/w is. High pressure north of New England more often than not dams us in the spring. Otherwise we'd have a climo like NYC in the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 The EC is pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 For a few weeks this winter never favorite Looks like it's going to be another frustrating evolution for us, but too early to give up. it's time to check out I think. Except For a few weeks this winter never really favored your area or mine. At least you had the epic run. W NE had a slightly above average winter and a pattern that brought a lot of missed opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Just agog ... that NAM solution is a dynamic super opera ... 66 F in saturated misty dirty pig sector warmth Friday, and a thunder snow parachute bomb 24 hours later. Personal druthers aside...now THAT is entertaining... er, if it happened. Still in the flog NCEP officials for even processing that pos model range... but it's there to look at - edit: i should add, interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 NAM solution notwithstanding ... this could actually be a meso-scale nightmare. That position and movement of 500mb dpva, to mention ... right exit region of the jet relaying across into left exit has atmospheric 'wedgy' written all over it. There could be a couple of just morally despicable UVM maxes that are tied into product maxed frontogenic sigs, and doing so through rap implosion of heights should be quite convectively unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Nam is really close to a maple mauler for northern Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Nam is really close to a maple mauler for northern Mass. A Wachusett Walloper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 A Wachusett Walloper. Bit of a sneaky tick south over the last 24 hrs. Maybe the 2010 redux will work for Kevin after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Nam is really close to a maple mauler for northern Mass. Great, we have Arquimedez Pozo batting leadoff for us on the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Nam is really close to a maple mauler for northern Mass.Sat night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Bit of a sneaky tick south over the last 24 hrs. Maybe the 2010 redux will work for Kevin after all. If we ever saw a repeat of that now, I'd be rushed out in a straight jacket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Sat night? Sat morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Good to see the tulip tip-toers out this morning. Visions of warm showers dancing in their heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Sat morning. How much of this is nocturnal? Every large April event that I have witnessed here in the lowlands has been largely nocturnal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Bit of a sneaky tick south over the last 24 hrs. Maybe the 2010 redux will work for Kevin after all. Yup.. This has been heading in that exact direction since that first euro run of 70 and sunny. That high pressing and cold ooze is going to bring snow to NYC by the time this is done trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 I remember that 2010 deal in early April had been modeled mild and rain initially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 How much of this is nocturnal? Every large April event that I have witnessed here in the lowlands has been largely nocturnal. Verbatim on the NAM in those areas close to the NH border in ORH county is was maybe near dawn into aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Verbatim on the NAM in those areas close to the NH border in ORH county is was maybe near dawn into aftn. Well, game over for 85% of sne if that timing is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 It's the nam, but we'll see what the rest of 12z does. I'm actually more interested in next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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