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Model Discussion for April


Quincy

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This is the second time I've seen this modeled this fledgling spring, where timing a rotted polar high would support extraordinary diurnal temperature recoveries.  The last time we wound up capped under potential by dirty skies... Barring that repeating ... 12z Thursday could be below freezing, and around 5pm that afternoon, could be over 60F.  The models are forming a warm front that moves through during the day, RH is low, and the the deep layer is WSW... 850s recover from -3 at dawn (avg) to +6 or so by late afternoon as all that's happening.  

 

Might be fun to track what could be a pretty impressive diurnal swing that day. 

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CT gets in on it for Sunday night (though SW CT might be too warm), but Tuesday it is probably mostly MA northward...this is like a week out though, so it doesn't really matter yet.

the minute Kev posted no more accumulating snow anywhere in SNE yesterday it was an automatic lock. its uncanny the way that happens, Feb 13, March 13 , Jan 15. Its funny as hell.

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lol, Euro is pretty funny on the straight west to east just south of the pike spring look

 

 

It's further north on the next frame. It's not a south of pike special verbatim on that run.

 

Not that it matters anyway on a 138 hour prog.

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Heh, talk about threading a needle ...  

 

That's like trying to impale flea on an elephant's azz with a dart while driving by at this range.  At least if it was a larger arial coverage ... I'd say the "chance" there is under 10% ..generously

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