Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2015 Author Share Posted March 6, 2015 Notice the ridge trough progression further east from last year. Last winter into the spring the trough was located over the Great Lakes. In 2015 the trough is centered over the Northeast as we come off of the historic cold pattern in February. So it should be no surprise to anyone when the trough digs into the east again and colder than normal temperatures continue in the means for the foreseeable future. This -EPO/+PNA pattern is the real deal. The one thing that the 2000's taught us is that the weather patterns have been very persistent with the -EPO based blocking dominating from 2013 into 2015 so far. Likewise, 2005-2012 was defined by the record breaking -AO pattern focusing the strongest blocking over Greenland. This animation is all you need to know about the pattern progression to colder here this year. http://www.weatherwest.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/output_MSU19Z.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 The Midwest winter of last year's is ours,we have known that for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Meh. Big deal. I want 100" That's pretty impessive, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Easter is pretty early so the chances of white are pretty good for many. White Thanksgiving last year. No White Christmas, but White Easter en route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Every holiday from Veterans Day to Cinco de Mayo should feature snow. We had a stretch of fresh snowfall on Cinco de Mayo a couple years back. Seemed to ski fresh powder on that day a couple years in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 We had a White Easter in ORH in 2013 after that month...I think lower elevations had melted out by then, but we still had like 6-7" of glacial pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Every holiday from Veterans Day to Cinco de Mayo should feature snow. We had a stretch of fresh snowfall on Cinco de Mayo a couple years back. Seemed to ski fresh powder on that day a couple years in a row.we almost had the rare Memorial Day snow in 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2015 Author Share Posted March 6, 2015 We had a White Easter in ORH in 2013 after that month...I think lower elevations had melted out by then, but we still had like 6-7" of glacial pack. We had snow for that too. I don't think it was as much as you had though..but I do recall that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 That was after the underrated March 18-19 event. That was a really sweet event near Boston and especially north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 That was after the underrated March 18-19 event. That was a really sweet event near Boston and especially north. Yeah we still had like 15"+ OTG from the Firehose event (and February compacted stuff below that) and then that storm gave us like 7" of lower ratio snow plus some sleet and ZR on top which locked it in...end of month was cold too. So the sunny days were having trouble melting it out. We finally warmed a bit in early April but there was still too much snow for it to extinguish before Easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Here something not being discussed much is Hydro concerns: I am getting pics from family and friends of rivers frozen solid that usually don't freeze; does this pose ice dam/flooding threats in areas that don't normally see problems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Yeah we still had like 15"+ OTG from the Firehose event (and February compacted stuff below that) and then that storm gave us like 7" of lower ratio snow plus some sleet and ZR on top which locked it in...end of month was cold too. So the sunny days were having trouble melting it out. We finally warmed a bit in early April but there was still too much snow for it to extinguish before Easter. I forgot Worcester got a bit less in that, but you locked it up with some nice ZR and IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Every holiday from Veterans Day to Cinco de Mayo should feature snow. We had a stretch of fresh snowfall on Cinco de Mayo a couple years back. Seemed to ski fresh powder on that day a couple years in a row. lol. At Stowe, probably true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I forgot Worcester got a bit less in that, but you locked it up with some nice ZR and IP. I took this on March 22nd that year...that wasn't fluff in that pack either: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Yeah we still had like 15"+ OTG from the Firehose event (and February compacted stuff below that) and then that storm gave us like 7" of lower ratio snow plus some sleet and ZR on top which locked it in...end of month was cold too. So the sunny days were having trouble melting it out. We finally warmed a bit in early April but there was still too much snow for it to extinguish before Easter. I think the thought that ZR "locks in" the pack is an old wives tale...maybe it'll help preserve pack for a day or so but I can't see it having much effect beyond that. Perhaps it's more of a mental thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Here something not being discussed much is Hydro concerns: I am getting pics from family and friends of rivers frozen solid that usually don't freeze; does this pose ice dam/flooding threats in areas that don't normally see problems? The hydro concerns are there, but thankfully, the weather doesn't look threatening for a big flooding worry. The ice jams though could be an issue down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I think the thought that ZR "locks in" the pack is an old wives tale...maybe it'll help preserve pack for a day or so but I can't see it having much effect beyond that. Perhaps it's more of a mental thing. It was more the sleet and ZR combined...it added several tenths of liquid equivalent on top of the snow. It requires just that much extra energy to melt it down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Six of sixteen years here had snowpack on Easter, and I'm 90% confident this will be #7, with the day falling on 4/5. Tops was in 2008, which combined a very early Easter (3/23) with a huge snow year, for 37" on that date. Latest Easter with snowpack was last year, 3" on 4/20; earliest with none was 3/31 in 2002. Also noteworthy was the 21" pack on 4/15/01. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I took this on March 22nd that year...that wasn't fluff in that pack either: Yeah that had some meat to it. Looks solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Here something not being discussed much is Hydro concerns: I am getting pics from family and friends of rivers frozen solid that usually don't freeze; does this pose ice dam/flooding threats in areas that don't normally see problems? It's come about here and there... I've mentioned it, and have read others discussing. The private sector is certainly aware, and several individuals at the office, whether in line at lunch (caff), or at the water coolers and so forth that aren't really even into the weather as so much as a hobby are worried about their property. Obviously ... the best handle on things is to have slow melt backs that take out an inch a day -- then when the bona fide heat up comes, there'll just be the frozen Earth to contend with. Could be the case the way things seem like they are trying to evolve toward.. The EPO is uncertain to me at this point. I haven't seen them updated in several days. Not sure what the problem is, and it's certainly awesome that we pay taxes, in part, for this stuff... but the EPO teleconnector products I normally use are apparently off-line. About the only thing I can go on is the MJO, and knowing whether it is in constructive, or deconstructive wave interference with the PNA. It's better to have the WPO-EPO arc for that tho. D'oh! In any event, they appear in sync ... They PNA is negative, and so too ... the MJO matures in 5 --> 6 -->7 ...gain strengthen. It would signal a warming trend; we have it in the various operational runs, but it's not exactly as confidence looking to me as it was two days ago. Wish I had the damn EPO numbers (f azz clowns). Anyway, it's exceptionally long lead so very minimal confidence, but should the MJO march trough 7 and dump into 8 that strong, the pattern/PNA probably instructs a +PNAP of rather steep slopes... Code for, ridge west, trough east.. But we more or less suspected this nearing the Equinox. Will and Ray and myself commented on the last 10 days of the month recently, so perhaps all this is reasonable. Transitory pattern of seasonal warmth and coolness, followed by one last stormy time? Of course, we mustn't forget: it is spring (whether it feels that way at the moment or not) and there signs of nebular circulation starting to emerge, and with that can come increased daily stochastic results -- even in the tele's that is true. So continuity notwithstanding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 The hydro concerns are there, but thankfully, the weather doesn't look threatening for a big flooding worry. The ice jams though could be an issue down the road. The longer we go into spring with substantial water in the pack the bigger the concern will get but I don"t think there is historical data that shows as an extensive deep pack w/e across all of SNE to correlate with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Springfield Oh, the snowhole of Mass. Sorry for him. Now I understand his frustration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 hold on I'm comin, hold on i'm comin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2015 Author Share Posted March 6, 2015 Sorry Tip. Instead of SPF 15 on the Nape..it's 15 inches in the shovel CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 7m 7 minutes ago When does spring arrive? Not lookin' too good right now. http://www.capecodweather.net/technical-discussion/when-does-spring-arrive/ … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Sorry Tip. Instead of SPF 15 on the Nape..it's 15 inches in the shovel CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 7m 7 minutes ago When does spring arrive? Not lookin' too good right now. http://www.capecodweather.net/technical-discussion/when-does-spring-arrive/ … Well, Steve's albedo may yet rape the nape.....SPF AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 You need some PF fluffernutter to get 3-5 feet out of 2.0-2.4" of total QPF for the entire 384 hour run at BOS to IJD Yeah it's weenie enough talking about deterministic solutions in here(really for the model thread)....but at least if you're gonna do it, be accurate. At any rate, from a general pattern standpoint, the guidance has trended heavily today toward an extreme PNA ridge out west by Mar 17...interestingly, the Mar 14 threat is occurring despite the lakc of a PNA ridge yet build...that threat is southern stream slow mover trying to run up into a high pressure. That system looks more "spring like" in terms of the jet versus the stuff after it. Regardless of what happens Mar 14, I think today's guidance indicates multiple chances upcoing for the period around St. Pattys day and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 He he , I like the look of March right now . I like our chances so long as modeled pattern shifts toward todays look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Kevin, yes. Steve, nah. He's a glass half full guy but doesn't inflate accums.Im jokin anyway . And i would NEVER say either would do that in a storm. Im talking model interpretations.If that ridge and slight block form i am at least starting to understand what that means for our chances thou i would like to see EPO ridge as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 He he , I like the look of March right now . I like our chances so long as modeled pattern shifts toward todays look nice pattern hopefully pays off and chaos doesn't screw us although this south of Pike spring has been nice I sense the underlying tension in some N of Pike posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Im jokin anyway . And i would NEVER say either would do that in a storm. Im talking model interpretations. If that ridge and slight block form i am at least starting to understand what that means for our chances thou i would like to see EPO ridge as well My bad. When you linked kevin with Steve I thought you were serious lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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