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Central PA & The Fringes - Early March 2015


MAG5035

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lol...CTP snowmap #3 since noon today just took Cumberland county from 1-2" to 3-4" at 6:30pm to 2-3" at 10:35pm.  They are having a very tough time figuring out accumulations at the moment.

 

3.5" here with the next storm would put me at my highest accumulating storm of the entire season.  Woo-hoo!

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One other item of note since no one else has mentioned it yet.  The highest barometric pressure of the winter season occurred at 10:30 this morning with a local reading of 30.83" (1044 mb).  Previous highest pressure of the season was 30.67" earlier in the season.

 

My temp is now down to 13.5 degrees with a dew point of +6.4 degrees.  Pressure slowly coming down now at 30.70"...still a very high reading.

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2:41 AM discussion from CTP is thorough and fascinating. They changed the snow & ice amounts yet again, but do mention the immense uncertainty of the forecast in the LSV.

"Latest 00Z oper models and 03Z sref indicate the threat for around 0.25 inch of ice from freezing rain later this afternoon into this evening across the lower susq valley, mainly to the southeast of the i-81 corridor. Since the event will start as several hours of snow then mix with/change to sleet and fzra with ice amounts still uncertain, we won/t make any upgrades to winter storm/ice storm warnings at this point. Additional high res models this morning will likely provide better detail to make the Decision regarding potential ice amounts and locations. Still think that most of this event will fall as snow to the north of the rt22/322 corridor in central penn."

"Short Term /8 Am This Morning Through 6 Pm Monday/: Still thinking that most precip - except perhaps near the md border south of kthv and klns - will be snow/briefly mixed with sleet, as temps remain cold through the time of heaviest precip. The very weak low developing on the delmarva and rushing off shore later Sunday will enhance the precip/snow over the sern cos, and have tried to reflect this in the update. Did not want to go too wild with changes but the 18Z runs and newest 00Z NAM portray a Decent slug of cold/frozen precip rolling thru the far sern cos in the afternoon and early evening. Only at the tail end of that precip - as the dry slot occurs - is there enough warming aloft to change the p-type to liquid or sleet. Very interesting part of the forecast will be the snow type. There is a really good signal in the upper part of the clouds in the middle of the day where the best vertical motion is squarely in the preferred dendritic growth zone around -15c. Then, it falls through a highly moist/saturated column and gets only close to melting inmost place. This could make some giant but wet flakes. thus, a high water content and heavier snow. The snow physics, the winds aloft and sfc temps all will pull the snow accums one way and another. However, temp profiles look pretty similar to past weekends very similar storm. Many similarities exist with that prev storm, but the temps appear just slightly colder. Thinking that we will get bigger flakes but end up with the same water content and slightly higher snow accums over most of the area. bust potential exists in the se, where if there ends up being no turNover to mix/zr will mean that the 0.6 inches of water progged there May nudge them near warning amounts. Even this seems very similar to the 21st."

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22/11 at Millersville with a thick overcast deck. Looks like a chance for some ice this afternoon. Still think with March sun it's going to be tough to amass steady accretion during the daylight, especially on the roads. Will be slippery elsewhere. If this was in earlier winter say December through early February, this would be ugly.

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Sitting at 20 here with light pixie dust and approaching 1/2 inch.

 

Thinking this will be nuisance event here (2" or less) followed by very light snow, to freezing rain, then plain rain for Tues-Wed. Which will make everything nice and white, then protect the snowpack with a nice sheet of ice so that the following rain will have little impact on melting the snowpack.

 

This is all fine by me. What I don't like is the prospect of more unseasonable cold without a nice big thump to end it all. 

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