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Wed Feb 18th Convective Snow Shower Chances


burgertime

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Yep! Anybody from HKY , Rutherfordton, to GSP back torwards the mountains , will see nada from this! Now Winston to CLT, to Gaffney and east, could easily score an inch ! It'll be just like summertime, I can look to my east , and see the thunderheads , smh

Anytime precipitation comes from that direction or has to cross over the mountains that WILL happen. Hard to watch but it's just the way it is. Looks like Friday system may have similar issues as it will be coming from due west as modeled, will down slope from North Georgia mountains, plus cold is retreating. Not a good recipe for the upstate. I'm hoping though, against hope :)

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The 15z SREF plumes seemed to improve a bit.  For example, the mean for Greensboro went from .13 to .24 inches of snow and the probabilities went from about 40% chance to 80%.  

 

I could go for a heavy dusting with a flash freeze to follow!

 

We could use a little something to revitalize the snowpack so that we can make a run at 0 degrees on Thursday or Friday night.

 

I think I experienced -2F temperatures back in 2005 or 2006 in WV, but I've never experienced that here.  I don't think it's been that cold here in about three decades.

 

Looks like the 18z NAM would put down 0.5-1" (maybe with ratios... maybe) for us, not that it really means anything at this point.  We're just going to have to radar-watch and hope for luck.  We'll probably get HRRRed and RAPped a few times, too.

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I think I experienced -2F temperatures back in 2005 or 2006 in WV, but I've never experienced that here.  I don't think it's been that cold here in about three decades.

 

 

1996 was the last time RDU hit zero.

 

I don't know how public schools and universities are going to have classes tomorrow, there's still a ton of ice on roads and sidewalks.  We only have about 1-2 hours before temps fall below freezing again and it will be a hard freeze.  The sidewalks are sheets of ice.  I guess the good news is, if it snows, ground temps should not be an issue for accumulation!

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26:1 ratios? Holy cow! Where do things like that happen, Antarctica maybe?! Of course that is unusually cold and dry air.

 

I think COBB gets a little crazy with ratios sometime.  They should be high, but I doubt anywhere near that high.

 

Pack, I did not realize it had been that cold as recently as 1996.  I guess I experienced that here, as well, though I must have been too young to remember it specifically.

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I think COBB gets a little crazy with ratios sometime.  They should be high, but I doubt anywhere near that high.

 

Pack, I did not realize it had been that cold as recently as 1996.  I guess I experienced that here, as well, though I must have been too young to remember it specifically.

We need boundary layer temps to be rather frigid too, right? Or do they not matter much?

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RGEM is beefing up precip a little across central NC.  Roughly 0.5-1" across a good chunk of the area, be a dusting, if it's right.

 

If this is like Feb 2013 do not underestimate how much liquid can get ringed out. It's the same thing as a thunderstorm, no model is going to get the QPF right. You could easily get .25 out of one of the bands. I tend to recall the vort being more intense in Feb. 2013. 

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If this is like Feb 2013 do not underestimate how much liquid can get ringed out. It's the same thing as a thunderstorm, no model is going to get the QPF right. You could easily get .25 out of one of the bands. I tend to recall the vort being more intense in Feb. 2013. 

 

I don't remember that event?  Which event was it?  Looks like there was 2 in Feb.

 

 

 

 

  1. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20130216/accum.20130216.gif
  2. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20130222.gif
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Good chance of a flash freeze after this thing tomorrow

This. What a potential disaster this could be tomorrow across central NC. Day After Tomorrow type event! Flash freezing everywhere in the middle of rush hour. Thank goodness schools are already out in many places.

Be prepared folks! Southern housing is not insulated for this weather and your heat pump will NOT keep up. Close foundation vents. Open cabinet doors on wet walls to let the heat into your cabinets and walls. Shut off any valves to exterior faucets. Even the smallest amount of water will crack pipes at zero and below. Take care of pets too!

I know this may sound like an overeaction, but if you think I am overreacting then I would lay money on you not being prepared. You wont see 32 degrees again for 3 days. Many of you wont see 25!

I hate this kind of cold but what an amazing event this will be to track tomorrow.

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NWS is now saying that downsloping may not be that big of a deal tomorrow.  We shall see...

 

 

THE FRONT APPEARS TIMED TO ENTER THE MTNS A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK AND
THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNSET. 500MB HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT FALL AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. THESE WILL ALLOW STRONG LAPSE RATES INVOF THE FRONT.
GFS AND NAM BOTH DEVELOP CAPE UPWARDS OF 100 J OVER A CONTIGUOUS
PORTION OF THE PIEDMONT...MAINLY IN NC. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW
DEVELOPS CONVECTIVE PRECIP DURING THE DAY IN THESE
AREAS...DOWNSLOPING NOT LOOKING TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT. THOUGH TEMPS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE PRECIP BEGINS
THE DEEP MIXING AND RAPID ONSET OF PRECIP WILL ALLOW WET BULBING DOWN
TO TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. USING THIS TO DELINEATE AREAS SEEING
SNOW...AND BLENDED MODEL QPF...TOTALS MAY APPROACH AN INCH OVER AREAS
JUST N AND W OF CHARLOTTE. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED TONIGHT
IF CONFIDENCE OR QPF INCREASES
...PUTTING TOTALS OVER AN INCH. THE
MTNS NEAR THE TENN BORDER WILL SEE BOTH INSTABILITY AND UPSLOPE
FORCING...AND SNOW TOTALS WILL REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE
DAY. AN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING AT 7AM
WED...CONTINUING THRU WED NIGHT.

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NWS forecast--

 

 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURE
FALLING INTO THE MID 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 5 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. WIND CHILL
VALUES AS LOW AS 4 BELOW.
 

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This is a very similar setup to the event on Feb 16, 2013. Temps where mid 30s here in Mooresville As the squall approached. It was pounding Hickory based on observations I read here so I knew it was heading my way. I looked outside toward Hickory and saw a wall of very dark gray clouds. Just like a summer squall line. Once the line got within a 1/8 mile of my house, I could detect a white curtain bearing down on me. I mean I could see it pouring down snow a hundred yards from me as it advanced forward. Once it reached me I witnessed the hardest snowfall I've every seen in my 52 years. It continued to snow at that rate for a solid 40 minutes and then just as quickly, it was over. We easily eneded up with 1.5 ". I'll never forget it.

I have attached two photos, the first is at 3:50 PM, 5 minutes after it started. The second was taken an hour later. Keep in mind this took place with temps at 34-35 degrees.post-2313-0-62898500-1424219422_thumb.jppost-2313-0-47693800-1424219465_thumb.jp

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