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February 16th - February 17th Snow/Ice Storm OBS


superjames1992

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My office just called it. We're closing at 4:00pm, a half hour from now. I hope that's not cutting it too close. It's already snowing/sleeting here and Joshua in Charlotte says it's coming down hard at the Northlake Mall, just 10 miles north of here. It's also sleeting at my home in Union County.

It's slacked off a bit here, but still a light snow.  Probably safer, especially if/when this switches over to FZRA

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Marietta - I know we will stay above freezing but I too have noticed the winds shifting due East in North Atlanta....temps are definitely busting here so far though, sitting at only 36 when the expected temp was low 40's by this time. 

 

yeah we probably won't see 32 again until the precip moves out but it's an interesting development.

 

 

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 Interestingly, I recently dropped to 33.0 here in Dunwoody (northside of ATL)  with a decent steady rain. I think that the wedge has pushed back a bit, stopped the SE wind flow, and made it more of an E flow. Earlier it was holding near 37.

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It sure would be fun if the models busted this badly all the time. i mean they normally miss it by 1 to 3 degrees in most cad situations but this is a lot more than usual. Question is, does this continue through the night or long enough to cause big problems in the areas that weren't expecting much.

 

 

I was about to mention that of course THIS is the storm that trends wetter and colder at the last minute. Just in time for a crippling ice storm.

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Temps are dropping like a rock with this heavier precipitation... 30.6/25 now...

 

Edit: Sleet mixing back in now that the intensity has picked up... 

 

 

I should also include that the Temps I am getting are from my davis weather station at work which is located within 100 yards of Lake Hartwell. It is usually the warmest Temperature in the area.

Same observation in Dacusville. Sleet mixing back in now that the intensity is picking up.

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Returns starting to dry up as they enter NC near the metro. Not much happening at this point.

 

Are we expecting the heavier precip to backfill/pivot more east at some point? Otherwise, QPF is going to be overdone for many. I assume this will occur when the low transfers? If it transfers too late, I'd imagine that would be bad for QPF (caveat that I really don't want ice).

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Had a long break in precip and managed to get back to 34 but temp is back to 33.5 and the dewpoint has actually gone back down to 25 so if steady precip gets here, looks like some icing will occur. in fact, looking at wetbulbs currently, most areas from the northeast burbs of atlanta and up the 85 corridor should see some. Gainesville is even down to 28.9 over 24. They could be in a for a very long night along with the upstate.

28 with a dewpoint of 26 and freezing rain/sleet.  starting to see ice cycles and you can see the sleet on the deck.  looks like precip is filling in on radar so should be interesting lol.

 

guess i am just a bit pessimistic after this winter's awful model performance.  is it a fluke and the warmer airs surges in, or could we be having a "good" bust for a change :ee:

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Raging sleet storm still. Where is tony? He would love this.

Hey man, I hope you love a good sleet like I do.  I'm very jealous, lol.  It's a non event down here.  No rain, no nothing.  Had a brief sprinkle about noon, but that's it.  It's all way north of here.  Dang it, I do love a raging sleet storm,  Lucky you!!!  Oh, well, winter's just starting, finally, so this isn't the last chance, it's just the first chance :)  Tony

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Nice. Sure is going to be interesting to see how surface temps respond through the evening since the models have done such a piss poor job of seeing the cold thus far.

another area that models like the nam said you had NO chance of seeing freezing temps. In fact the nam says you should be in the low 40s! Just 10 degrees off lol.

 

It sure would be fun if the models busted this badly all the time. i mean they normally miss it by 1 to 3 degrees in most cad situations but this is a lot more than usual. Question is, does this continue through the night or long enough to cause big problems in the areas that weren't expecting much.

 

If the surface low takes a further south track, the cold should stay locked in for many areas. Of course the models say no and have it track right over atlanta, just south of athens to columbia and floods the entire low levels with warm air. It's hard to see how this happens when the models are so wrong about the maginitude of the cold. It's going to be truly fascinating to see what happens. It's going to be a great learning experience either way. that's the good thing about wedges, each one is unique in it's own way and you learn something with each one.

And it was also forecasted for south-easterly winds here. This storm has been a real roller-coaster ride but like you say these CAD's are very complicated to forecast. That meso-high I think you had mentioned might have thrown a curve ball at the models.

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