40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 In NAVGEM we pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not even PWM or other Coastal ME? Sorry not speaking of areas outside of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The euro is bad for even SW Maine.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 My gut too Will. Sticking with 9-12 here. I haven't seen anyone who has an issue with that, considering the ratios we may deal with. I think it is this 12"+ idea that is under a great deal of scrutiny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wait until 18z models incorporate the subtle redevelopment of the surface low, main center is now in nw PA heading for Delmarva. The old center will drop to NYC. This may delay explosive cyclogenesis phase 2-3h and allow for better phasing. Final model trends may all be towards a stronger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Lots of football spiking before we even begin here... Hopefully those folks don't pull a Russell Wilson. 6-10" here. Final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Lots of football spiking before we even begin here... Hopefully those folks don't pull a Russell Wilson. 6-10" here. Final call They call it forecasting for a reason. We can't keep sitting around and waiting.... Nice system, I think SE areas may get hit harder as the system develops and modeling comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wait until 18z models incorporate the subtle redevelopment of the surface low, main center is now in nw PA heading for Delmarva. The old center will drop to NYC. This may delay explosive cyclogenesis phase 2-3h and allow for better phasing. Final model trends may all be towards a stronger storm. Roger that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I haven't seen anyone who has an issue with that, considering the ratios we may deal with. I think it is this 12"+ idea that is under a great deal of scrutiny. Right. But I think the QPF looks bit too skimpy. Lots of people taking numbers down. I don't see the need to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wait until 18z models incorporate the subtle redevelopment of the surface low, main center is now in nw PA heading for Delmarva. The old center will drop to NYC. This may delay explosive cyclogenesis phase 2-3h and allow for better phasing. Final model trends may all be towards a stronger storm. Pressures are falling rapidly in the Delmarva, even as far south as offshore Va. Beach area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Slightly OT....but I was just out around the yard surveying the depth, I have noted for the first time all season, that this pack is finally growing more durable. Since the conclusion of the early week snows, I have only lost about 4" to compaction, and I am no longer falling through with ease. 29" avg peak depth now down to about 25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 fwiw, and admittedly not very much, I'm looking at where this energy is now and comparing to the 18z and 0z runs from yesterday for 12 and 18 hours out. It looks like the GFS had a slightly better handle on the current stuff. Obviously not dispositive of much, including the redevelopment of the low, but this should be fun to look back at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Slightly OT....but I was just out around the yard surveying the depth, I have noted for the first time all season, that this pack is finally growing more durable. Since the conclusion of the early week snows, I have only lost about 4" to compaction, and I am no longer falling through with ease. 29" avg peak depth now down to about 25". Were your leggins on for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Right. But I think the QPF looks bit too skimpy. Lots of people taking numbers down. I don't see the need to. Well, then why do you only have 9-12: a a range? You think lower ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Were your leggins on for this? Absolutely, dude....I had just cleared off my mother's roof, so I figured why not grab a depth before hitting the GYM later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm seeing slightly better downstream ridging than the 12z gfs at 18z right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Right. But I think the QPF looks bit too skimpy. Lots of people taking numbers down. I don't see the need to. Yeah I'm not buying some of the lower output. I don't think BOS will need 20 to 1 to get 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Slightly OT....but I was just out around the yard surveying the depth, I have noted for the first time all season, that this pack is finally growing more durable. Since the conclusion of the early week snows, I have only lost about 4" to compaction, and I am no longer falling through with ease. 29" avg peak depth now down to about 25". You have 25" on the ground? Would've thought more like 30-36". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 In ogunquit Maine ...easily 40" here. Easily. I'll try to get a measurement but not sure there is a yard stick....beyond insane ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 LOL, it definitely is better go look at spc and compare to the 6hr prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 You have 25" on the ground? Would've thought more like 30-36". Well, only got 15" in the last event, where as Boston and the n/s shore had near 2' From here on out, should be a bit easier to stack now that the pack has "matured", so to speak....no longer pillow feathers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 With all the zig-zagging going on here about where the storm is or isn't going to be, have the thoughts on the winds tomorrow changed? Assuming the winds are cranking tomorrow, as long as there is enough snow for the wind to really rip around, the difference between 6 inches or 8 inches here doesn't make much difference to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I was in Westford MA yesterday and the depth wasn't that much greater, but it was clearly a more compacted a durable pack than I have in Bow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 I was in Westford MA yesterday and the depth wasn't that much greater, but it was clearly a more compacted a durable pack than I have in Bow. Yea, once you get enough events, it almost seems as though the sacrifices in the depth you have made along the way because of compaction begin to manifest themselves into a more durable pack. That is where I'm at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Some will. Depends how you deal I grab an extra shawl and drink black coffee instead of with milk. What's interesting is that NAVGEM model is still TROWALing all the way back W. of Albany, and suggests a solid 9 to 12 hours of hammering in high winds for everyone... This is of the utmost extreme solutions I have seen, but I recall commenting with Will that it was doing that on the 12z guidance yesterday. It did so on the 00z run, too.. Now this: John--I would sh*t if that happened. It's a lovely look but talk about a model being alone....... Right. But I think the QPF looks bit too skimpy. Lots of people taking numbers down. I don't see the need to. The good thing when you have low numbers to start is you don't really need to lower them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What's interesting is that NAVGEM model is still TROWALing all the way back W. of Albany, and suggests a solid 9 to 12 hours of hammering in high winds for everyone... This is of the utmost extreme solutions I have seen, but I recall commenting with Will that it was doing that on the 12z guidance yesterday. It did so on the 00z run, too.. Now this: Is the NAVGEM known to do be over bullish with Precip (QPF) it just has a very robust precip field and its mid levels at that point (unless resolution is very poor) are slightly weaker than the 12z gfs has at 12z Sunday. Is the NAVGEM known to be overly bullish on Precip fields Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well, then why do you only have 9-12: a a range? You think lower ratios? Wind makes higher ratios like 20:1 hard, although tonight may do it. I just think good WAA snows and we do get the CCB in the morning. Could very well be higher but that is my more comfy range. For now. But hey, I'm also not forecasting today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 18z RAP finally caving. 2-3 mb weaker with the NW extension vs a few hours ago. Instead of jamming decent precip well into CT like the 15z it barely gets it into coastal CT in 10-11 hours. The fade begins. Some of the American guidance just butchered that trough/developed a strong low right out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Is the NAVGEM known to do this? or is this a bit of a "Flag". I mean I never hear the mode talked about except that it has a SE bias. I mean does it EXPLODE MID LEVELS? because it seems to me if you ran other models in some sort of "ensemble" scenario where Mid level lows deepened much more rapidly than forecast, then this is what you would get for a out put. Something like the 18z or 0z gfs from yesterday but on steroids (with even more explosive mid levels) or is it just seeing the storm at currently modeled strength but able to generate more robust precipitation The NOGAPS had a SE bias. The NAVGEM is the NOGAPS love child, but it's not entirely the same model so you can't necessarily apply the same biases to it. I wouldn't put much/any stock in it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 A thread dedicated to the queens if New England. Let's see if this event is the "revenge of the queens" or "queens be damned". Harvey broke down the snow totals reserving the lions share for tomorrow morning which he felt would be 5-10+. He also fully acknowledged the lull coming in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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