jamesnichols89 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is life threatening due to the intense winds and heavy snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 well I applaud him for standing by his viewpoints, but you have to consider other factors already at play, not just weather models, but what is happening outside. Anyway I'm going to enjoy the storm, 4-6" or 10-14" should be fun to track. Yeah, this is far from pedestrian. It's a fascinating dynamic system being laid down on top of a historically profound snowpack. Anyone saying less is either biased or west of ORH. If he had to take Harvey's place on 5 tonight, would he stick to his guns and take down the blizzard warnings, lower the snow amounts, and basically say this is a minor event in terms of what we have gone through the last several weeks? You gotta ask him that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 With rapid pressure falls even south of Hatteras, it's strange that the placement of the low is at the northern tip of the extreme pressure falls. Yeah. I find that interesting as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 SREFs back off a bit for eastern areas...still hits EPO hard and has some better snows in CT. Throwing out the high and low outlier members: AQW shows 3-11 with a mean of 6.8: ORE comes in as 3.7-11 with a mean of 7.3 I'm sticking with my 6" in my hood. 12.7/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The sleet and rain line has just entered eastern LI. The 12z NAM had that line @ 21z 50-75 miles further south and still not reaching LI by 00z. Something to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The RAP pounds eastern mass in the AM and has for the past few runs. All hires modeling continue to spin up a mesolow just east of boston that pivots over se nh or far sourthern maine and then swings south heading into the morning hours toward far eastern mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 We know we'll do ok in the initial burst. The X factor is yes or no on the CCB. Those who get it will double or triple today's total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The sleet and rain line has just entered eastern LI. The 12z NAM had that line @ 21z 50-75 miles further south and still not reaching LI by 00z. Something to consider. Tucking closer maybe? Weenie speculation. 18z NAM continues to suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Sleet and rain??LOL..Was that forecast down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 18z NAM doesn't even give 0.5" to anyone in MA other than ACK and most of SNE snow falls this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 HRRR has trended noticeably south with the pivot comparing 17z run to 19z run. It's not far from Cape Ann instead of Maine on this run. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 He likes taking radical viewpoints pre storm and then standing by them. He's trying to prove his point See how the general public reacts when they wake up to two days of mass transit closures for what is a very manageable storm, low density high fluff snows? This isn't a bad storm (I mean it's a nice storm...not bad as in not a whiff etc), but it's being portrayed as about to launch a surprise attack on us comparable to some of our biggest...has anyone else watched some of the coverage local and national today? When I just got gas at the bridge there were FOUR media trucks there! LOL. I don't think most will verify a blizzard. The NAM is coming around now to a more reasonable solution as consensus is gradually being reached. I'd wait until post RGEM and GFS from 18z before doing anything, but this is right in the consensus now. But let's be honest the innuendo was that this was being under modeled and we'd see a tempest like 1/25/00 spring to life and devastate the region. Historic mid levels, triumph the dog, global warming...all were going to combine to wipe eastern mass off the map I believe some were saying. It'll be windy, this is MA not Del Boca Vista, we'll handle it and didn't need the state shut down for another two days. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Tucking closer maybe? Weenie speculation. 18z NAM continues to suck. The 18z NAM still shows no sleet/snow line anywhere near LI at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Still looking at a model used for convection in the summer ..LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 See how the general public reacts when they wake up to two days of mass transit closures for what is a very manageable storm, low density high fluff snows? This isn't a bad storm, but it's being portrayed as about to launch a surprise attack on us comparable to some of our biggest...has anyone else watched some of the coverage local and national today? When I just got gas at the bridge there were FOUR media trucks there! LOL. I don't think most will verify a blizzard. The NAM is coming around now to a more reasonable solution as consensus is gradually being reached. I'd wait until post RGEM and GFS from 18z before doing anything, but this is right in the consensus now. But let's be honest the innuendo was that this was being under modeled and we'd see a tempest like 1/25/00 spring to life and devastate the region. Historic mid levels, triumph the dog, global warming...all were going to combine to wipe eastern mass off the map I believe some were saying. It'll be windy, this is MA not Del Boca Vista, we'll handle it and didn't need the state shut down for another two days. JMHO You have no real grasp of Boston conditions and its surrounding suburbs. That's clear. I'm not talking about keeping the parking lots clear by Ikea at the Burlington mall. 8-14" is going to add insult to injury within the immediate city. Combined with the drifting and high winds this is clearly a high impact event. You can poo-poo all you want. Area has had an unseen and historical amount of snow up until this point and now we're getting another pretty solid hit to add on. Obviously the media is covering it, not sure why that is so ridiculous. This was and always has been an east of ORH storm. Only a limited amount of locales will verify blizzard observations, which is not really different than any other blizzard we have. Often we don't meet the guidelines officially but it means there is a significant event on the way. Saying otherwise is somewhat ignorant. Maybe 8-14" wouldn't be a big deal without the 37" snow depth measured at LOGAN AIRPORT of all freaking places!! I'm about to post some pictures of the neighborhood in the banter thread from yesterday and I encourage you to take a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You have no real grasp of Boston conditions and its surrounding suburbs. That's clear. I'm not talking about keeping the parking lots clear by Ikea at the Burlington mall. 8-14" is going to add insult to injury within the immediate city. Combined with the drifting and high winds this is clearly a high impact event. You can poo-poo all you want. Area has had an unseen and historical amount of snow up until this point and now we're getting another pretty solid hit to add on. Obviously the media is covering it, not sure why that is so ridiculous. This was and always has been an east of ORH storm. Only a limited amount of locales will verify blizzard observations, which is not really different than any other blizzard we have. Often we don't meet the guidelines officially but it means there is a significant event on the way. Saying otherwise is somewhat ignorant. Maybe 8-14" wouldn't be a big deal without the 37" snow depth measured at LOGAN AIRPORT of all freaking places!! I'm about to post some pictures of the neighborhood in the banter thread from yesterday and I encourage you to take a look. LOL. I've been in and out of Boston 4 times this week including using mass transit and just flew out of logan twice this week. I survived, adjusted and life went on. You're latching on to the RAP and HRRR and not seeing where they were 3-4 hours ago delivering maxes and marching those in general to the east. The euro will end up being mostly right, and if we didn't have the crazy GFS runs or those few blizzard runs from other models the treatment of this system would have been different. The perceived vs real impacts of this system - we can discuss that Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 LOL. What's so funny? Ryan tweeted this days ago. http://inagist.com/all/564857291661668352/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 LOL. I've been in and out of Boston 4 times this week including using mass transit and just flew out of logan twice this week. I survived, adjusted and life went on. Highways and downtown are nice I'm sure. Real neighborhoods are a joke. City should be ashamed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Downgraded snow totals across the board by about 2", new map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The commutes have been multiplied about 4 fold across the board. Any snow will just make it worse. It's very high impact (8-14 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 LOL. I've been in and out of Boston 4 times this week including using mass transit and just flew out of logan twice this week. I survived, adjusted and life went on. You're latching on to the RAP and HRRR and not seeing where they were 3-4 hours ago delivering maxes and marching those in general to the east. The euro will end up being mostly right, and if we didn't have the crazy GFS runs or those few blizzard runs from other models the treatment of this system would have been different. The perceived vs real impacts of this system - we can discuss that Monday. For the young and able bodied it is manageable. For the elderly, infirmed, and those relaying on under the best circumstances a broken mass transit system it's been a nightmare. I'm 68 years old and healthy and have enough resources so that I can enjoy every storm. Most in my age cohort aren't so lucky. And when I take the T to work every Friday, I have been known to angrily ask a 20 something to give a seat to someone in their 80s or older. The warnings are geared for everyone it those most vulnerable must heed them carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The commutes have been multiplied about 4 fold across the board. Any snow will just make it worse. It's very high impact (8-14 inches). Yes. It's been a nightmare...even today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 18z NAM was south of 12z with it's surface low track. Also advertises a further south meso low track offshore east of cape ann. Sort of seems like that be heading toward Portsmouth rather than Maine on hires modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Highways and downtown are nice I'm sure. Real neighborhoods are a joke. City should be ashamed. $$$ They have no money. I'd agree with your statements re the roads. The problem is no thaws and it's making it impossible for them to ever really cleanup. That does NOT excuse many of the major roads having snowbanks blindly sticking into them. In general I think this was one of the poorer cleanup jobs but it was made much worse by the cold temps. State commuter lots are a total mess. Dangerous. But that isn't because the snow itself is the problem, they just did a shi** job in many cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I have light snow here, I'm in riverhead, no sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Cape Cod and the Islands forecast: 10-14" from HYA eastward to CHH, 14-18" from Provincetown to CHH, 8-10" from HYA westward towards Falmouth and the Bridges, 6-8" Nantucket, MA, 6-8" Martha's Vineyard, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yes. It's been a nightmare...even today. It should not take me 40 minutes to get to N Quincy..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Highways and downtown are nice I'm sure. Real neighborhoods are a joke. City should be ashamed. This. My area of Cambridge is fairly commercial, has wide streets and has been pretty well cleared, but I was in Charlestown last night and was downright shocked by the condition of things there. Incredible piles, very narrow streets, blind corners, dangerous driving. Even 6 more inches of snow with significant drifting will cause trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yes. It's been a nightmare...even today. The amazing part has been the Dorchester area. 93s and 93n have actually been moving decently but streets between andrew square to fields corner, morrissey between 93 and southie, the rotaries off 93 between mass ave and jfk umass, and dorchester ave have been gridlocked for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This all might seem like OT, but I'd argue it kinda directly relates to the storms impacts and it disco directly related. But that's up to the mods.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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