HarveyLeonardFan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 QPF Queens won't be hitting the bars tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't see why looking at qpf is all that important .. just look for trends with position / rate of deepening of mid / upper lvl lows. Don't have access to the EURO til after 2 pm, but I would be interested to see how it compares to the GFS with the aforementioned features .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Man, this party sure died... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Models are already wrong, upper level low is over Ontario, north of Lake Erie and west of BUF. HRRR has low existing S tip of NJ @ 996 let's see how that plays out, trending south last couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Misanalysis by that one poster has led the board down a very bad path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm still bullish. I might be wrong. But sticking with 8-12 ORH east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 QPF Queens won't be hitting the bars tonight. Some will. Depends how you deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 HRRR has low existing S tip of NJ @ 996 let's see how that plays out, trending south last couple of runs. HRRR struggles with these types of developments, if you look back 3 and 4 hours I think we can see which way it's trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What trend? Look at some models that aren't the GFS and let us know what you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 HRRR struggles with these types of developments, if you look back 3 and 4 hours I think we can see which way it's trending sureSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm still bullish. I might be wrong. But sticking with 8-12 ORH east. I will hold you while you cry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm still bullish. I might be wrong. But sticking with 8-12 ORH east. That's my call, but I don't think that is over-the-top at all.......even just .4"-.6" QPF with greater than 10:1...I don't think that is too "bullish"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm still bullish. I might be wrong. But sticking with 8-12 ORH east. People will measure 20 to 1 ratios, so that's not unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What trend? Many of the models hitting the CCB and 2nd part of the storm further east and north outside of the GFS. Could end up getting little from the wrap around and the IVT sets up southwest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Look at some models that aren't the GFS and let us know what you think.who besided the poster spewing bad analysis is Basing forecasts only off a couple 12z models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm still bullish. I might be wrong. But sticking with 8-12 ORH east. I think you can get there in eastern Mass...some good snow growth and 0.4-0.6" of QPF can do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 People will measure 20 to 1 ratios, so that's not unreasonable. Right. I think the 12"+ stuff is "bullish"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nobody will verify a blizzard, even the new way. JMHO. And besides the general public associates a blizzard with lots of snow, not 4" of wind blown snow like North Dakota. Not even PWM or other Coastal ME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm still bullish. I might be wrong. But sticking with 8-12 ORH east. I'm seeing slightly better downstream ridging than the 12z gfs at 18z right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not even PWM or other Coastal ME? He meant sne, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That's my call, but I don't think that is over-the-top at all.......even just .4"-.6" QPF with greater than 10:1...I don't think that is too "bullish"...The trends on the short term guidance lead me to believe we are gonna get smoked at some point after 06z. That solution just makes more sense to me synoptically. We will see...don't have to wait long. In the meantime...this afternoon could be an over performer before the lull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 who besided the poster spewing bad analysis is Basing forecasts only off a couple 12z models? I'm not sure who you are talking about as most of the analysis seems fine in here. I guess I'd lean towards using the most recent model guidance over previous runs, so the 12z runs to me would be of some importance. I still think most of eastern New England east of 395/495 get into warning snows with even 0.4" of QPF. The issue will be further west. The issue will be further west into central areas, if the RGEM/GGEM/EURO/UKMET are right, not much falls past this afternoon/evening west of ORH/IJD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Again...euro looked a little bit better with the WAA this afternoon/evening across SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm not sure who you are talking about as most of the analysis seems fine in here. I guess I'd lean towards using the most recent model guidance over previous runs, so the 12z runs to me would be of some importance. I still think most of eastern New England east of 395/495 get into warning snows with even 0.4" of QPF. The issue will be further west. The issue will be further west into central areas, if the RGEM/GGEM/EURO/UKMET are right, not much falls past this afternoon/evening west of ORH/IJD. Have you looked at any short term stuff? If so you'd see something entirely different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 QPF Queens won't be hitting the bars tonight. Or they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What's interesting is that NAVGEM model is still TROWALing all the way back W. of Albany, and suggests a solid 9 to 12 hours of hammering in high winds for everyone... This is of the utmost extreme solutions I have seen, but I recall commenting with Will that it was doing that on the 12z guidance yesterday. It did so on the 00z run, too.. Now this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Have you looked at any short term stuff? If so you'd see something entirely different Short term as in what? What's entirely different than the first 48 hours of the UKMET/EURO/GGEM/RGEM/NAM, etc? There's pretty good agreement is all I'm saying. Not stealing your snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I should clarify that I was concerned about the warnings west of ORH and Eastern CT when I said warning amounts might not verify. I still think this is a 6-12 inch snowfall for ORH to Boston but I'm wondering about this area back here in the 91 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 My gut too Will. Sticking with 9-12 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 sure Sent from my iPhone trending away from the further NW stuff of earlier HRRR runs/gfs. Weaker low at the same time points vs earlier HRRR runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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