SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 There's some decent snow from 12z-18z tomorrow..... Eh it looks like 1/3-1/2" per hour SN- type stuff that you don't even notice because it's being blown around so hard by the wind. The 1"+ per hour that was going to make this exciting is gone. And this is why you don't shut down the MBTA two days out when the end result is likely to be a low end warning event at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That coastal front/mesolow/convergence area may save our area. Night and day from the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Eh it looks like 1/3-1/2" per hour SN- type stuff that you don't even notice because it's being blown around so hard by the wind. The 1"+ per hour that was going to make this exciting is gone. And this is why you don't shut down the MBTA two days out when the end result is likely to be a low end warning event at best. You can't run the MBTA into the eye of a 498dm ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Night and day from the GFS GFS is a feedback catastrophe. The NCEP folks tossed the GGEM once again for no other reason than it was "different"...lol. Euro/GGEM not dissimilar, GFS is throwing up on itself right to the end and a lot are going to barf on themselves in the forecasting too. This was an obvious non-blizzard for more than 24 hours. Lot of pissed off people in EMA come tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is time to let go of the models and just nowcast. Upper level low or Shortwave is centered over SW Ontario, Canada southwest of BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You can't run the MBTA into the eye of a 498dm ULL. 499 sure, 498, you're just begging for trouble. Mid level monkeystm for the loss on this one IMO. Best moisture is, and always was WTF offshore and that really hurts a fast moving system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 pretty much all models have the dry slot in RI between 1-4 am, No? Yes yes I just haddn't seen it as 0.00" yet. Euro always had some flakes. Though that probably means more strengthening. For a forecasted blizzard in EM, I have never seen such unhappy weenies microanalyzing why they might get an inch or two less of snow than someone else. And it's not an inch or two less - I want 15" from this baby to put this into Real Historical perspective and not for anything if you Only looked at the upper level maps you'd thiink this is a Monster. And it's looking like 6-8 now. That's Half. Not 1 or 2 less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Surface low according to the SPC mesoanalysis shows the low south of BUF, not over BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is time to let go of the models and just nowcast. Upper level low or Shortwave is centered over SW Ontario, Canada southwest of BUF. James, there isn't any Canada SW of Buffalo. That is called the good ole U.S.A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Low level flow is out of the south, over the Gulf Stream, streaming moisture northward into the region. Winds are very calm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 James, there isn't any Canada SW of Buffalo. That is called the good ole U.S.A glad I was not the only one who was looking at a map lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 James, there isn't any Canada SW of Buffalo. That is called the good ole U.S.A Ontario, Canada is in that region north of Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Fine Ontario, Canada is WSW of BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 3-6 for many if you toss the GFS. Warnings should be changed to advisories for many if this trend holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro looks good for NH/ME. Naso much for most of SNE. It was a hair wetter in CT this evening. Round 1 for the win--hopefully for up here, too. Pretty far south with the IVT on the Euro, hits CNJ hard at hour 18. CCB really likes SNH and SWME so far. Congrats GYX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Best two hour pressure falls are over the Delmarva peninsula, surface low will follow this path of least resistance, this storm will explode once the upper level support reaches the Atlantic Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Fine Ontario, Canada is WSW of BUF. You almost have to go due west to get to Canada from Buffalo and that is by boat. And back on topic, the ULL is actually still NW/NNW of Buffalo. Remember they are tilted to the NW in the upper levels. SPC shows the H7 low NNW of Buf so therefore the H5 low has to be NW of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 3-6 for many if you toss the GFS. Warnings should be changed to advisories for many if this trend holds. Models are already wrong, upper level low is over Ontario, north of Lake Erie and west of BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I done tried to warn y'all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 With all the micro-analysis right here right now. I state put the model jug down its serving piss. The initial WAA is blossoming, looking mighty fine. Saw that coming from which model? The 40" j/p's out of SW CT in the blizzard last year what model had that? A rotting CCB in numerous storms again which...? With the dynamics as such especially the almost perfect set-up ULL. Common sense dictates something radically different. I don't think any model is going to detect and forecast correctly. Academic because it's now-cast folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You almost have to go due west to get to Canada from Buffalo and that is by boat. And back on topic, the ULL is actually still NW/NNW of Buffalo. Remember they are tilted to the NW in the upper levels. SPC shows the H7 low NNW of Buf so therefore the H5 low has to be NW of that. Thanks Max for the clarification, but the surface low is south of modeled positions. Its south of BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 God save the queens... ecmwf02141512qpf4848.png Going out on a limb and will say the blizzard warnings need to come down post haste... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 let's blame Jim Cantore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 God save the queens... ecmwf02141512qpf4848.png Nice--manages to get me into the .25-.50 range with most of the rest of the Commonwealth. Not exactly a big jackpot area on there in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 let's blame Jim Cantore He's packing up and driving to Portland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thanks Max for the clarification, but the surface low is south of modeled positions. Its south of BUF. Well a new low is forming south of Buf, but the old low which has occluded is still fairly north of Buf and just east of the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Going out on a limb and will say the blizzard warnings need to come down post haste... They really have nothing to do with the totals, though. If the wind aspect remains then they're appropriate on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 They really have nothing to do with the totals, though. If the wind aspect remains then they're appropriate on the coast. Nobody will verify a blizzard, even the new way. JMHO. And besides the general public associates a blizzard with lots of snow, not 4" of wind blown snow like North Dakota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 He's packing up and driving to Portland. He was supposed to Grand Marshall the Mardis Gras Parade, but couldn't get a flight out once he landed...hope he finds solace in ME... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 3-6 for many if you toss the GFS. Warnings should be changed to advisories for many if this trend holds.What trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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