jamesnichols89 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yeah I am really worried about the positioning of the trough and potential location of the shortwave in question could change a bit, but only small changes could bring another snowstorm to coastal MA and NH and ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Quincy, thoughts on the second and third shortwave potentials on the GFS and NAM runs?Too little too late, or just a bit too far east. Could see some mood flurries/snow showers off and on through Thursday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I know Norlun gets tossed around a lot here when an inverted trough is modeled, but in this case we can check all the boxes from the original research (if we approximate the T1 and T5 temps for 975 mb and 800 mb). Still though, it could be anywhere from BHB to BVY and I wouldn't be surprised. Edit: this is for late Wednesday through Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I know Norlun gets tossed around a lot here when an inverted trough is modeled, but in this case we can check all the boxes from the original research (if we approximate the T1 and T5 temps for 975 mb and 800 mb). Still though, it could be anywhere from BHB to BVY and I wouldn't be surprised. Edit: this is for late Wednesday through Thursday. Yes, they often disappoint but when they line up perfectly for you they are damn fun. A lot of people despise them for their inconsistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Here is a look at the ingredients coming together late Wednesday night (00z NAM run). If you just trust me that the boundary layer is near saturation and that modeling is nearly stationary with this inverted trough, the rest of the players overlap nicely along the Maine coast. The big question is exactly where on the coast this is. Given the parameters that I'm seeing, the potential is there for a pretty significant snowfall, as long as the trough doesn't become too progressive. At the very least, even a mobile trough would provide the necessary ingredients for a brief intense burst of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 00z EURO shows a 996mb low in the Gulf of Maine on Friday 00z. Thursday through Thursday afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yeah Thursday bay have gotten interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 RGEM is interesting too, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Does NYC get into the action or another SNE Special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 RGEM is interesting too, RGEM putting the NORLUN over the ME/NH border. NAM also father SW than other guidance. Mesos FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 RGEM putting the NORLUN over the ME/NH border. NAM also father SW than other guidance. Mesos FTW? There is a really strong s/w that rounds the bend of the trough Thursday. Might get some snow either from weird developing lows like the euro has, or perhaps one of those mid level fronto bands swinging through. It could also be just some flurries, but it looks interesting. Maybe PWM gets some revenge for getting porked last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Here is a look at the ingredients coming together late Wednesday night (00z NAM run). If you just trust me that the boundary layer is near saturation and that modeling is nearly stationary with this inverted trough, the rest of the players overlap nicely along the Maine coast. The big question is exactly where on the coast this is. NORLUN.png Given the parameters that I'm seeing, the potential is there for a pretty significant snowfall, as long as the trough doesn't become too progressive. At the very least, even a mobile trough would provide the necessary ingredients for a brief intense burst of snow. Great stuff and great forecast dilemma for your area. Models continue to look more threatening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 You could just see the models hinting at snow in the tues- thru Thurs period for the region. Still unsure how it plays out except that it will snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 RGEM is interesting too,Definitely a little SW tick in the overnight models. Another "tick" this morning from the RGEM and it'd get interesting here. Congrats Muddy Moose on the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 RGEM looks like a pretty good snow event Thursday..lol. However, that is in its "clown range" area so I wouldn't take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Here is a look at the ingredients coming together late Wednesday night (00z NAM run). If you just trust me that the boundary layer is near saturation and that modeling is nearly stationary with this inverted trough, the rest of the players overlap nicely along the Maine coast. The big question is exactly where on the coast this is. NORLUN.png Given the parameters that I'm seeing, the potential is there for a pretty significant snowfall, as long as the trough doesn't become too progressive. At the very least, even a mobile trough would provide the necessary ingredients for a brief intense burst of snow. Right over my house,but I won't get too excited yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Nice light snow now. Big flakes, everything coated quickly. 9.5o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Right over my house,but I won't get too excited yet I narrowed it down to somewhere on the Maine coast in my AFD this morning, and even then I'm not totally sold that's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I narrowed it down to somewhere on the Maine coast in my AFD this morning, and even then I'm not totally sold that's right. Do they ever come inland very far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Do they ever come inland very far? They do, but the most intense part is usually very close to the coast. Low level convergence is typically maxed there. And you can see there is higher instability over the water too (since the surface is warmer to begin with), which rapidly drops off as you head inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I narrowed it down to somewhere on the Maine coast in my AFD this morning, and even then I'm not totally sold that's right. Well, At least you narrowed it down to 150 miles or so. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 But we're talking the difference between what happened around York, ME (2 feet) versus what Brian got farther inland (1 foot) oftentimes. This has that potential on the higher end, but it could also progressively swing up the coast and just sprinkle everyone with 2-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Euro was surprisingly snow up this way with a good deal of orographic precip and greater than 0.3" from Mansfield to Jay Peak. Sneaky ski area snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Flakes just started. 6.5 Radar looks so-so. Not sure how this will play out.. Maybe an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Flakes just started. 6.5 Radar looks so-so. Not sure how this will play out.. Maybe an inch Maybe a C? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 almost 2 inches here-still light to moderate snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 But we're talking the difference between what happened around York, ME (2 feet) versus what Brian got farther inland (1 foot) oftentimes. This has that potential on the higher end, but it could also progressively swing up the coast and just sprinkle everyone with 2-3 inches. Good stuff this morning. Major boom/bust potential from a "MBY" perspective, even if the forecast is accurate overall. It'd sure be nice to make up somewhat for what happened on Sunday, but we could just as easily end up with a couple fluffy inches and watch the death band rotate through or stall just a few miles from us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Light snow looks around an inch or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Maybe a C? Lol. No snow in Springfield yet. Radar not looking promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Good stuff this morning. Major boom/bust potential from a "MBY" perspective, even if the forecast is accurate overall. It'd sure be nice to make up somewhat for what happened on Sunday, but we could just as easily end up with a couple fluffy inches and watch the death band rotate through or stall just a few miles from us. Just as good a chance as being on the outside looking in on this one as well in just a few miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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