RU4Real Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It's probably time to de-emphasize the model analysis and focus on the fact that the radar is strongly suggestive of this being a predominantly rain event for most of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I see it as well but I'm still not buying it completely. I still like the idea of 4-6" of heavy snow before mixing Sent from my iPhone I do still believe there are some tricks up mother nature's sleeve, but all guidance is saying otherwise. The issue becomes a fifty mile shift South, which we have seen in the short range, makes a world of difference.Edit : that being said, observations are agreeing with warmer guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 There is no guidance that supports anything more then 1"-3" of slop followed by a heavy and flooding rain fall. And yes, the Rgem should be heavily weighted. 90% of their forecast should be using the Rgem. DROP THE WARNINGS. Take it easy. Haha. They probably will this afternoon with a downgrade to an advisory for a possibly messy morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 A west based block would've done wonders with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Curious, what's the stats on all winter storms on east coast this year, shifting south last minute or north? Be investing to see how many times it's happened... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It's not as simple as that. They have issued them. The forecast discussion shows that the forecaster expects it to be a messy morning commute. The afternoon shift could decided they're not warranted, but, if they drop them and then a last second curveball happens, they are responsible to millions of people. It's very hard to drop warnings before an event once they are issued. They need to drop them asap. The general public thinks a snow and ice storm are coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 so just because the RGEM shows heavy rain I guess we drop the warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Straight from the "it could be worse" files, the RGEM takes SE Mass into the mid-50s tomorrow afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 so just because the RGEM shows heavy rain I guess we drop the warnings For NYC and south. 100% they need to be dropped to at most advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 TWC, which did quite well in the "blizzard" still has a major ice storm for much of Central Jersey and points north of there, including NYC, i.e., with up to 1/2" ice. Wondering if they haven't incorporated the 12Z runs yet. Have a hard time seeing the warnings staying up for at least the southern tier of NJ/NY counties, including NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 TWC, which did quite well in the "blizzard" still has a major ice storm for much of Central Jersey and points north of there, including NYC, i.e., with up to 1/2" ice. Wondering if they haven't incorporated the 12Z runs yet. Have a hard time seeing the warnings staying up for at least the southern tier of NJ/NY counties, including NYC... You gotta be right eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 You gotta be right eventuallyHype gets ratings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Hype gets ratings Not fair - they completely downplayed the snow for NYC/NJ for the "blizzard" - if they wanted to they could've hyped the crap out of that and they didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 For areas NW of 287 in NY will still see 6+ with up to a few tenths of ice... North of 84 more snow less ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Not fair - they completely downplayed the snow for NYC/NJ for the "blizzard" - if they wanted to they could've hyped the crap out of that and they didn't.I never watch Twc anymore, so if I unfairly accused, I stand corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I never watch Twc anymore, so if I unfairly accused, I stand corrected. You might want to - they've gotten better - read the last few pages of the dissecting the bust thread, where several red taggers speak very highly of TWC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The high to the north is also not strong enough. We probably would've seen a strong CAD setup if the high was around 1040 mb or so. nope i bet than the storm wouldve been suppressed...these stupid setups never workout lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I never watch Twc anymore, so if I unfairly accused, I stand corrected. They did a very good job with the blizzard. When every other outlet was still on the higher end -- though not none was as high as the NWS -- they began scaling back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I have lived through a ton of these in sw coastal CT. Snow totals always over forecasted while sleet and frz rain always under forecasted. Expecting 3 to 5 at most with a lot of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 They cold end up doing advisory,and then switch to freezing rain advisory or ice storm warning,if need be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think the NWS has you under a warning for what 6-12? That seems really excessive I doubt anyone on the shore sees a foot, its gotta come down at 2" per hour for the first six hours for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I have lived through a ton of these in sw coastal CT. Snow totals always over forecasted while sleet and frz rain always under forecasted. Expecting 3 to 5 at most with a lot of ice. Agreed but I think your area and mine will get 6 to 8 plus the ice. If it comes in hard for several hours it will add up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think the NWS has you under a warning for what 6-12? That seems really excessive I doubt anyone on the shore sees a foot, its gotta come down at 2" per hour for the first six hours for that to happen. that was issued prior to the 12z models ticking a bit warmer, bet they downgrade later to 4-8 or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I have lived through a ton of these in sw coastal CT. Snow totals always over forecasted while sleet and frz rain always under forecasted. Expecting 3 to 5 at most with a lot of ice. Agree. Though I could see us getting a quick 6 inches. These storms always have ample moisture and the front end dump usually over performs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Agree. Though I could see us getting a quick 6 inches. These storms always have ample moisture and the front end dump usually over performs I think you are right on. I see 4-6, maybe 5-7, sleet freezing rain and then end maybe as plain rain for an hour or two. and maybe a 1-2 inch difference from the beach to the hi-ho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Agree. Though I could see us getting a quick 6 inches. These storms always have ample moisture and the front end dump usually over performs Hopefully. FYI my location is technically Easton have to edit my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So far about 16.5 inches of snow excluding Friday. Hopefully we get enough tonight to make our average of 30 feasible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 For the city, I'd go with 2-4", maybe 3-5" if the front end does well and can hold back the warm air aloft for a while. It should go to rain quickly in the city given how torchy things are on a SE wind. From the LIE south, I think you walk away from this with less snow on the ground than before-the immediate shore, maybe much less with temps near 40 and a strong onshore wind. That just destroys a snowpack. Should be a crazy flash freeze though at the end with temps crashing to the teens. North of Yonkers and in CT and N NJ it should stay sleet after the snow changes over, so there it looks more like 4-8" or 5-10". If these warmer trends continue though, there could be rain at the end close to NYC. I think everyone in this subforum with the possible exception of the Ulster County guy change over from snow at some point-the mid level warming will be very potent with the north track of the 850 low. Even Boston is looking more like they get sleet, but after a big time front end. To me, this was pretty easy to see coming once the S/W started trending stronger on the modeling and the confluence north was looking more like it would give way. SWFEs very rarely go well in NYC, and we needed much stronger blocking to stop the low from trying to cut. Now it looks like the primary will make it into northern PA before transferring offshore-disaster for NYC and the coast, and a mess inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Monday 3:00am RAP freezing line is just south of rockland through NENJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm not sure he was even serious; I never envisioned this getting this miserable, the problem is the system got too strong, the low track didn't go much further north from what it was 48 hours ago. I think he was serious. If you pay attention to Forky, he drops some pearls using few words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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