TheManWithNoFace Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Zr should be south of IP, right? Because a shallow warm layer, marked by the northern edge of upper level warm air intrusion would be IP but deeper layer of warm, which would logically be further south would be zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Brings mix line up to rockland so farYeah not so much. At hour 21 the surface and 850 line is over the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Anyone North of Rt 80 is still mostky snow for morning commute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NYC never really goes to plain rain on this runDude, what are you talking about? By hour 21 the city is plain rain. LI is a mix but surface is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm was at hr27 and everyone south of orange is mixing with the exception of far west orangeThat would be a first if my SV was delayed over WxBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Dude, what are you talking about? By hour 21 the city is plain rain. LI is a mix but surface is warm. My bad, your right I was looking at the wrong loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 That would be a first if my SV was delayed over WxBell. I'm not lying bro, lol I'm at hr42 on wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 925mb warm layer makes it to Rt. 80 at hour 22 with 850's warm and the surface in the low 30's to upper 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 instant is only out to 22 usually they are fast too lol I'm not lying bro, lol I'm at hr42 on wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The surface freezing line hangs just North of 80 with mid level warmimg to Rt 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 The surface freezing line hangs just North of 80 with mid level warmimg to Rt 94 The back end snows look better to me on this run less of a dry mess Can u confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Decent backlash snows NW. Heavy rains on LI washing away the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm not sure why my county is under a WSW seems overdone. Even an advisory is too much considering it's a quick hit of snow (maybe an inch or two) quickly over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I was not personally impressed with this run. Looks warmer. What I see is a thump of snow over to sleet and possibly plain rain for anyone south I 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Dude, what are you talking about? By hour 21 the city is plain rain. LI is a mix but surface is warm. NYC is not going to be raining a hour 21, the 850s are still -1 to -2C, I don't think they changeover til 11Z or so...remember, the models don't grasp evaporative cooling so you van knock several degrees off temps before that entire layer from 800-950 warms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 I was not personally impressed with this run. Looks warmer. What I see is a thump of snow over to sleet and possibly plain rain for anyone south I 80 Mix line retreated further south on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This run has very little frozen or freezing precip for NYC or LI and over 1.25" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This run has very little frozen or freezing precip for NYC or LI and over 1.25" of rain. Uh?surface temps are cold. Few inches at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This run has very little frozen or freezing precip for NYC or LI and over 1.25" of rain. Remember too the NAM is dreadfully slow advancing in precipitation, I think only 2-4 inches falls in NYC but the NAM will be wrong showing nothing, its because it hardly gets anything in there til 09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Surface is cold nyc, ice not plain rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NAM showed virtually no CatSnow for NYC. Maybe an hour or two at 1am Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NYC is not going to be raining a hour 21, the 850s are still -1 to -2C, I don't think they changeover til 11Z or so...remember, the models don't grasp evaporative cooling so you van knock several degrees off temps before that entire layer from 800-950 warmsI picked that panel because the surface is 33F in NYC at that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This run has very little frozen or freezing precip for NYC or LI and over 1.25" of rain. Agree it's mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Surface is cold nyc, ice not plain rainNo, it's not. It's above freezing in the city by 09z. By 11z the surface is at 36F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Agree it's mostly rain. I doubt it but we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 After 12z the surface begins to cool again but it will have made it to the mid 30's. Northern Bergen, Western Passaic, Northern Morris and Sussex County in NJ never make it above freezing at the surface and North of Rt. 94 never makes it out of the 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Imo the nam at initialization, doesn't even look like current radar sounds, precip shield on current radar are far more expansive than modeled... Anyone else think so or am I just wrong lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I doubt it but we will seeYou can wish cast until the cows come home but the writing has been on the wall since Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Imo the nam at initialization, doesn't even look like current radar sounds, precip shield on current radar are far more expansive than modeled... Anyone else think so or am I just wrong lol It always is, it sucks on timing, the NAM always shows less frozen precip in these types of systems because its 2-4 hours too late on bringing precip in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 It always is, it sucks on timing, the NAM always shows less frozen precip in these types of systems because its 2-4 hours too late on bringing precip in Ok thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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