IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That will wash away their snow quickly rightIt won't kill a 30" snowpack but it would take a few inches easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Decent backlash snows NW. Heavy rains on LI washing away the snowpack. The mid-level lows are weak and pretty far north on the NAM. I would not expect much if any wraparound snow with this depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 You can wish cast until the cows come home but the writing has been on the wall since Friday morning. They're still getting 2-4 inches of snow but I doubt there is any FZRA at this point, it should just go right over to rain by 11-12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The NAM is probably too slow so that's why I continue to think 2-4" there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 You can wish cast until the cows come home but the writing has been on the wall since Friday morning. The models somwtimes underestimate low level cold. Surface line is right near the area. Any wobbles will be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 They're still getting 2-4 inches of snow but I doubt there is any FZRA at this point, it should just go right over to rain by 11-12zThe problem is that he's still expecting the 12" that the Euro was showing a few runs ago. 1-3, 2-4" in the city, then over to rain. Looks nasty for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 After 12z the surface begins to cool again but it will have made it to the mid 30's. Northern Bergen, Western Passaic, Northern Morris and Sussex County in NJ never make it above freezing at the surface and North of Rt. 94 never makes it out of the 20's. Bulk of the precip is finished by around 15z for most of the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It always is, it sucks on timing, the NAM always shows less frozen precip in these types of systems because its 2-4 hours too late on bringing precip in These type of events like to start earlier than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The models somwtimes underestimate low level cold. Surface line is right near the area. Any wobbles will be huge.And if that happens you will ping, not flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The problem is that he's still expecting the 12" that the Euro was showing a few runs ago. 1-3, 2-4" in the city, then over to rain. Looks nasty for the interior. When did I say that?Go to sleep. A few inches is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Bulk of the precip is finished by around 15z for most of the metro.Yeah another event that was supposed to last 18hrs getting cut down to 12 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 And if that happens you will ping, not flake. Yes if the 850s really warm up. I dont mind sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 12 z nam the low looks to travel over northern pa. that is never good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 The problem is that he's still expecting the 12" that the Euro was showing a few runs ago. 1-3, 2-4" in the city, then over to rain. Looks nasty for the interior. What would you expect our ratios to look like up here? 12:1 a safe bet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 4k NAM brings in the snow at 05z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 And if that happens you will ping, not flake.Honestly, I'm still very worried about zr, especially for the north shore of LI. Nyc is hard pressed to have significant zr, but the northern part of LI could be a real mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yeah another event that was supposed to last 18hrs getting cut down to 12 or so. I wish we were back to last week when the models were showing high ratio snow for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 What would you expect our ratios to look like up here? 12:1 a safe bet?6 or 8:1 at best. Your mid levels are terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Snow88 will be happy if the RAP is right, it gets snow into NYC fairly early, its been very good this winter on events, even beyond 8 hours...it was dead on not showing anything west of NYC in the last storm 12 hours out. The HRRR appears to be down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Agree RAP was one of the better performers of the blizzard that wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Agree RAP was one of the better performers of the blizzard that wasn't. The HRRR has been performing somewhat poorly, I'd like to see what it has too, it probably will come back up soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 6 or 8:1 at best. Your mid levels are terrible So hows the interior get nasty? Lol... Nam shows 1.0"qpf for my area.. That's borderline warning event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NYC is still good for 4-6" of SNOW tonight before any changeover Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NYC is still good for 4-6" of SNOW tonight before any changeover Sent from my iPhone Very unlikely unless it starts early and hard which is always possible on these events, but I'd be wary of going over 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 With 6:1 ratios I would need almost 2.5" liquid qpf to meet my current forcast of 12-16 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Very unlikely unless it starts early and hard which is always possible on these events, but I'd be wary of going over 4 It's so unlikely...that we have WS Warning for total accumulation of 4-8" by Upton. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Honestly, I'm still very worried about zr, especially for the north shore of LI. Nyc is hard pressed to have significant zr, but the northern part of LI could be a real mess. The N shore of Nassau County never gets above freezing. Upton alludes to it. You can see on the RGEM snow totals how it brings 4 to 6 inches there. Then sleet and then freezing rain. There are 20 to 24 inches up there. If you put 4 to 6 on top of it w sleet and freezing rain then take the BL to 5 by Tuesday AM you will just have created 1 nice block of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think between 9pm-4am is our window to do well. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It's so unlikely...that we have WS Warning for total accumulation of 4-8" by Upton. Sent from my iPhone UH.......4-8 doesn't mean it has to be 8. If it's around 4 both NWS and Snowgoose are correct The ice expected brings the accumulation threshold down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 UH.......4-8 doesn't mean it has to be 8. If it's around 4 both NWS and Snowgoose are correct Where did I ever say it had to be 8? I said 4-6. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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