mrdaddyman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The UKMET is still showing the Tuesday system. Hopefully with all of the different systems the models are showing we'll at least get one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 It may end as some snow at best for the piedmont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 It may end as some snow at best for the piedmont This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Burger can you see past hour 60 yet? Sent from my iPhone There's nothing up to hour 75. EDIT: There's nothing on the NAM for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Burger can you see past hour 60 yet? Sent from my iPhone Yep, it exits and then there is just boring weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Looks good for Boone! Yeah dew points are not below freezing for most. Hour 48: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=02&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=12&fhour=48¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase2211 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Hopefully the GFS 12z will show something Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yep, it exits and then there is just boring weather. It's the energy over the SW to watch. That's the dgex storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 DGEX has a KCHS snow shield, bank it. Feeling confident KCHS might see some wintery precip later in the week.. I'm just not too excited about the ice potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 So far the 0z Euro, the 0z NAVGEM, the 6z GFS, and the DGEX (bigtime) have the Feb 25-26 storm holding its own, even attempting to close off (the dgex and I believe the GFS actually does it and thus the stronger low). I really like this one.. at least for now! At long as this s/w can keep from getting sheared out it's likely to be a significant storm for many folks. The position of the HP this time is opposite from Monday's event where the high is entering rather than exiting off the coast. If the system retains enough separation from the polar jet that will allow HP to nose it from the west over top of it to inject enough cold air to keep it an all-frozen event. From then on, it would only get colder as the event progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The cold will be no problem, espeacilly Tues Wed in NC, that's a giving. In fact Monday will struggle to get to 40 or 41 here. So I really hope we can get some moisture one of those days. If you want to gamble big dog, then end of week is where you throw the chips. Moisture will be a whole lot easier to come by, but while the cold looks like it should be there, it's not a lock like it is Tues into Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 It's the energy over the SW to watch. That's the dgex storm. The GFS and now the Euro have been slowly strengthening the h5 low for several runs now, more so the GFS, but the Euro was close last night. The GFS even cut it off...just compare the changes from yesterdays 12z to this mornings 6z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The GFS and now the Euro have been slowly strengthening the h5 low for several runs now, more so the GFS, but the Euro was close last night. The GFS even cut it off...just compare the changes from yesterdays 12z to this mornings 6z... Exactly.. This is the kind of setup that gives us our big ones. A potent southern wave that closes off as it moves into the deep south with confluence building overhead. Good timing with the anniversary of the Feb 26, 2004 storm coming up. That 996 low over SAV on the dgex is mouth-watering. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The GFS and now the Euro have been slowly strengthening the h5 low for several runs now, more so the GFS, but the Euro was close last night. The GFS even cut it off...just compare the changes from yesterdays 12z to this mornings 6z...Yeah huge changes pack. Exactly what the WPC was talking about in their LR disco about the energy not properly being handled that stormsfury posted on here. We will continue to see big changes but I'm all-in on this system. The storm I was 100% sure would cut gave us a ton of IP and ice so nothing is off the table this week. This one just feels right to me given the look. It will be interesting to see RAH's updated AFD with the new model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 It's funny how we haven't mentioned one thing that we'd usually be clamoring for.. a -NAO. LOL. Usually at this stage in the game it's a more important feature but this winter, as with last winter, the Pacific has made up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yeah huge changes pack. Exactly what the WPC was talking about in their LR disco about the energy not properly being handled that stormsfury posted on here. We will continue to see big changes but I'm all-in on this system. The storm I was 100% sure would cut gave us a ton of IP and ice so nothing is off the table this week. This one just feels right to me given the look. It will be interesting to see RAH's updated AFD with the new model runs. Agreed! I am definitely weary of anything after this Friday, heights are rising in the east, but we will worry about that later. This definitely is the best chance at some snow this week, plus it's getting into that 4 day window. Also, this has a chance to miss us to the SE, great opportunity for places south of us. The UK is interesting for the Monday deal, it has wave forming on Monday night into Tuesday morning and has central/eastern NC/SC with 3-6". Plenty cold too. It then, just like the Euro/GFS has the SLP tracking just off the SE coast and clips eastern NC on Thursday morning. As for the Monday deal it's a cold chasing moisture scenario, we need the UK solution where the cold is already entrenched, just like last week the UK led the way and slow the other models are moving towards that. Will see if it's right, might not be till tonight/tomorrows runs before that is nailed down as a threat or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 It's funny how we haven't mentioned one thing that we'd usually be clamoring for.. a -NAO. LOL. Usually at this stage in the game it's a more important feature but this winter, as with last winter, the Pacific has made up for it. I'm not sure we'll ever see one of those in winter again. We're going to have to make do without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I'm not sure we'll ever see one of those in winter again. We're going to have to make do without it. If we're heading into another little ice age then I'd agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Exactly.. This is the kind of setup that gives us our big ones. A potent southern wave that closes off as it moves into the deep south with confluence building overhead. Good timing with the anniversary of the Feb 26, 2004 storm coming up. That 996 low over SAV on the dgex is mouth-watering. LOL I thought we want the Miller A low to be weak? Larry says that's how we get most of our bigger snows, a 1002-12 low across the gulf and through SGa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I thought we want the Miller A low to be weak? Larry says that's how we get most of our bigger snows, a 1002-12 low across the gulf and through SGa? We want a strong ULL, that will help anyone and would be track dependent on who gets snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 There were several carolina crushers with the 6z GFS ensemble panels. One of them very dgex-like (well, maybe not that much!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 It's funny how we haven't mentioned one thing that we'd usually be clamoring for.. a -NAO. LOL. Usually at this stage in the game it's a more important feature but this winter, as with last winter, the Pacific has made up for it. I BET that we will have a rock star winter in 2016, like we did in 2002-2003! We are LONG overdue. Law of averages! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 12z says Wed/Thurs a no go. Just slides south out to sea...however behind it some energy is hot on it's tails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I BET that we will have a rock star winter in 2016, like we did in 2002-2003! We are LONG overdue. Law of averages! JB says we will. Already talking about it today. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The 12z gfs is wide right w/ the Thursday storm...It could be a good thing at this time frame. I'd really like to see the trough axis go negative a little sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 That wasn't a good a run as the 6z GFS, it was a little weaker and a little more strung out with the h5 low. LOL, as soon as we talk about it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 12z says Wed/Thurs a no go. Just slides south out to sea...however behind it some energy is hot on it's tails. Wasn't slightly weaker with the s/w, but it's still there. I'm satisfied. It's a small scale feature so it's expected the medium range models are going to lose its focus of it in this range. Looks like it may honk on the next wave but I fear too much phasing as the ridge builds into AK and the polar energy falls back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The GFS is exactly where we want it right now... this storm reminds me a lot of January 2011. That was a straight up southern upper level low that ejected east and got sheared out as it rolled over spewing out plenty of moisture for a big snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The GFS is exactly where we want it right now... this storm reminds me a lot of January 2011. That was a straight up southern upper level low that ejected east and got sheared out as it rolled over spewing out plenty of moisture for a big snow here. yep, key part is that it is showing that low pop in the gulf within 96 hrs or so, plenty of runs left to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 yep, key part is that it is showing that low pop in the gulf within 96 hrs or so, plenty of runs left to go. Yea, let's not forget that 96hrs out from the event this week, all of the Virginia guys were moaning and groaning about not getting anything and they wound up getting the jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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