WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Welcome to 40S, b-itches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Is there a current snowfall map for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Their sense of entitlement is so powerful, that even in epic defeat, they will spend the next 5 years telling us how they "win" at having the worst bust of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 To be fair, it's not entirely a question of meteorology, it's also a question of population. If the edge had been 50 miles further west, or if NYC happened to be 50 miles further east, and it was only, say, Philly, that busted, this wouldn't be as much of a discussion. The models did fine - as others have pointed out, a combination of models ("metamodel?") would do even better, but this is a discussion driven by population impact rather than 50-100 mile shifts in global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 To be fair, it's not entirely a question of meteorology, it's also a question of population. If the edge had been 50 miles further west, or if NYC happened to be 50 miles further east, and it was only, say, Philly, that busted, this wouldn't be as much of a discussion. The models did fine - as others have pointed out, a combination of models ("metamodel?") would do even better, but this is a discussion driven by population impact rather than 50-100 mile shifts in global models. A "combination of models" should be exactly what is considered in a NWS forecast - not hysterical ravings of media members or knuckledraggers on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The problem isn't the Euro. The problem is the media/NWS who didn't do enough to convey the uncertainty about being on the edge. There is always going to be a sharp gradient in these type of storms...always. It just so happens that one of the biggest cities in the world was on the periphery. Nobody would care about getting the border wrong if it happened in some suburbs. The GFS was not exactly a world beater. It had like 0.75"- 1.25" QPF for some areas that are going to get 20-30". Euro definitely beat it in New England. Yesterday's 12z Euro had the 0.75" contour like 40 miles west of Manhattan, and the 1.5" contour bisecting it. Even if that was the only piece of guidance available, and you didn't have other guidance screaming caution, there should have been reasonable concern that a sharp cutoff might set up right over or even east of the city. Plus the fact that they were getting most of this epic snow from a coastal backing in and not an advance thump. I don't think this storm told us a whole lot other than both major models still have biases. Euro overamped, and GFS was probably too progressive and too dry in the jackpot areas, even though it did well on the western flank. While I think this is a good thread, we have so many awful model busts down here, I don't totally get why we should give 2 sh-its about NYC and why it should be some springboard for model discussion. This **** happens all the time down here. Welcome to 40S, b-itches. i don't know...we bust down here, but i can't remember too many times there's been predictions of 20-30" with locally higher amounts and getting less than 10" (or whatever they ended up with). that was a pretty big bust. i agree with you, even if euro was the only model to choose from, i think the forecasted totals were too risky/high. it's like saying a team is going to beat another by a large margin. sometimes, it's just better to say you expect the other team to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Is there a current snowfall map for this? Compliments of Ian up above: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/hydromet/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think the Philly bust was much worse than the NYC one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Compliments of Ian up above: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/hydromet/ Assuming you toss some of the obvious outliers, this storm was pretty lame compared to expectations. To echo what some others said, I noted a few times in our threads that this had huge bust potential. Amidst the runs with 3-4 feet were interspersed some runs that totally whiffed PHL and even NYC. BOS was always in the firing line but as the models drifted east or delayed the development of the low they should have cut some of the ridiculous QPF numbers down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 CT Blizz must be totally flipping out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 CT Blizz must be totally flipping out right now. I think he said he's measured 19.5" on his deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think he said he's measured 19.5" on his deck. LOL yeah sure. Did he post pics of 8 foot high drifts perfectly sculpted with his shovel along his driveway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The problem isn't the Euro. The problem is the media/NWS who didn't do enough to convey the uncertainty about being on the edge. There is always going to be a sharp gradient in these type of storms...always. It just so happens that one of the biggest cities in the world was on the periphery. Nobody would care about getting the border wrong if it happened in some suburbs. The GFS was not exactly a world beater. It had like 0.75"- 1.25" QPF for some areas that are going to get 20-30". Euro definitely beat it in New England. Yesterday's 12z Euro had the 0.75" contour like 40 miles west of Manhattan, and the 1.5" contour bisecting it. Even if that was the only piece of guidance available, and you didn't have other guidance screaming caution, there should have been reasonable concern that a sharp cutoff might set up right over or even east of the city. Plus the fact that they were getting most of this epic snow from a coastal backing in and not an advance thump. I don't think this storm told us a whole lot other than both major models still have biases. Euro overamped, and GFS was probably too progressive and too dry in the jackpot areas, even though it did well on the western flank. While I think this is a good thread, we have so many awful model busts down here, I don't totally get why we should give 2 sh-its about NYC and why it should be some springboard for model discussion. This **** happens all the time down here. Welcome to 40S, b-itches. GFS wasn't amazing per se but arguably it's better not to shut down a city for nothing than it is to do so. The models were unanimous on the area that ended up jackpotting either way.. so it's not like they totally busted. Euro hugging has definitely gone mainstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GFS wasn't amazing per se but arguably it's better not to shut down a city for nothing than it is to do so. The models were unanimous on the area that ended up jackpotting either way.. so it's not like they totally busted. Euro hugging has definitely gone mainstream. The level of travel ban they had in place was more extreme-- at least in the enforcement angle they played up-- than we had for any of our biggest snowstorms. No employees at the airports is just incredible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This was a tough storm for numerical prediction because rapid development of something that hasn't happened yet is inherently complex. Historic storm calls should be reserved for miller A's imo. Much less chaos to deal with with those. There was potential for a really big storm but there was never strong consensus for one. Even inside of 48 hours. That in itself is a big flag (great post btw nflwx). The biggest consensus was for parts of eastern mass and long island. That verified quite well. I really enjoyed tracking the potential norlun-like feature for our area. There was a lot of consensus for that. DT ripped it apart but low and behold it happened. For some reason, there seems to have been a trend on the forum away from the standard practice of blending all guidance. Too much toss just cuz it aint the euro going on. That should be over for a while. I personally weight the euro above other global guidance inside of 72 hours but never ignore the overall trends of all models. If I see the majority of globals and short range guidance painting another picture, I'll definitely not euro hug. One thing is for certain, my respect for the new gfs has jumped quite a bit. It seems to do very well with northern stream storms. Like the old one but better. Good stuff. I agree, Bob. There is a growing concern with the Euro's performance in primarily positive NAO regimes. If you look at this storm, one of the reasons why it busted is because of the fast progressive flow that allowed it to not be "captured." The Euro forecasted to have the NAO index significantly lower than what verified (even 24 hours before the event). In general, the Euro's performance during -NAO periods is unparalleled (2009-2010), (Feb 13, 2014), but I think it's time we evaluate every model's biases especially with a faster NAO+ period we are in. The GFS might be king this winter for that reason alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 HRRR thinks Boston is going for #1.. watch that band yo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 HRRR thinks Boston is going for #1.. watch that band yo. People in the area seem to be less amazed by this one than 2/13. And the shots out of Boston Common don't look super incredible as they were during that event. Winds seem to be making the difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 CWG take: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/27/why-the-snow-forecast-for-new-york-city-was-so-bad-and-what-should-be-done/?hpid=z5 I find Uccellini's quote in the beginning especially interesting given what he was saying on-air yesterday afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Haha. DT hugged the Euro to an epic bust. He deserves every second of this bust with his ridiculous rant the other night. The American models were insistent on a band setting up over nova and into central Virginia. They ended up being right. They were, I didn't understand why they were that far east which hurt the CWG forecast a bit near the bay.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 People in the area seem to be less amazed by this one than 2/13. And the shots out of Boston Common don't look super incredible as they were during that event. Winds seem to be making the difference? miller A's ftw. or should i say "GOM storms ftw". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 miller A's ftw. ? Boston has been nailed wind-wise by plenty of Miller B's too. And I don't think Nemo's a classic Miller A anyway with the dual-lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The GFS was not exactly a world beater. It had like 0.75"- 1.25" QPF for some areas that are going to get 20-30". Euro definitely beat it in New England. Compliments of Ian up above: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/hydromet/ I know the Euro and GFS are the best two models, but I think their Canadian sibling deserves some recognition for this storm. The GGEM did a pretty good job around here and for NYC, and looking at the above map it seems to be doing better than the GFS in Massachusetts. RGEM wasn't bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 While I think this is a good thread, we have so many awful model busts down here, I don't totally get why we should give 2 sh-its about NYC and why it should be some springboard for model discussion. This **** happens all the time down here. Welcome to 40S, b-itches. Thanks. It's not solely about NYC/PHL, but more a post mortem on what went wrong and how this is probably the biggest Euro fail in quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 NWS should go back to focusing on making the best forecast rather than being buddies with people on Facebook. A large chunk of the media should find a tall building in NYC and jump. Gladly. Although FB has no bearing on the forecast process, I believe it's complete waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Miller Bs are problematic, especially around here, but even including Wilmington to NYC corridor. Too many aspects in transition, the primary, the coastal jump, the reformation, the intensity, the movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 They still got 10-12", and they even got 5" from a Long Island Sound effect snow band, how cool is that? This isn't even a bust by DC standards. A bust is when someone asks you "What times it supposed to start?" 3 hrs after it was supposed to end. However I agree it was a huge embarrassment for the NWS. In 2006 when they got 27" with a 10-14 forecast it didn't seem like the NWS had to make any excuses! So yeah over-warning for the worst case scenario doesn't come without risks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 They still got 10-12", and they even got 5" from a Long Island Sound effect snow band, how cool is that? This isn't even a bust by DC standards. A bust is when someone asks you "What times it supposed to start?" 3 hrs after it was supposed to end. However I agree it was a huge embarrassment for the NWS. In 2006 when they got 27" with a 10-14 forecast it didn't seem like the NWS had to make any excuses! So yeah over-warning for the worst case scenario doesn't come without risks Thanks. It's not solely about NYC/PHL, but more a post mortem on what went wrong and how this is probably the biggest Euro fail in quite some time. I don't totally get why it is such a euro fail. It isn't like the model is designed to adjust to where population centers are. It just so happened that NYC was on the border...Even I could see they were in danger. The city got 6-12" and the 12z Euro printed out like 1-1.75" with a super sharp gradient, with the precip backing in. It was more than just standard model noise. It was a bust, but the main issue lies with the recklessly bullish forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 To be fair, it's not entirely a question of meteorology, it's also a question of population. If the edge had been 50 miles further west, or if NYC happened to be 50 miles further east, and it was only, say, Philly, that busted, this wouldn't be as much of a discussion. The models did fine - as others have pointed out, a combination of models ("metamodel?") would do even better, but this is a discussion driven by population impact rather than 50-100 mile shifts in global models. I kinda disagree with the models doing fine comment. A 50 to 100 mile whiff 48 hours out is not fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Plenty of red flags with the Philly forecast not to mention the vaunted Euro when from 24" on the 12Z SAT run to 9" on the 0Z SUN night run before the first flakes fell. Really not a Euro disaster, trend was clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Miller Bs are problematic, especially around here, but even including Wilmington to NYC corridor. Too many aspects in transition, the primary, the coastal jump, the reformation, the intensity, the movement. This. This was the first time I've seen the new GFS perform in a Miller B scenario, but it did quite well all things considered. Historically models have problems with Miller Bs, and I don't think they will improve in that area any time soon. Jury is still out on the new GFS, but perhaps it's improved with regard to Miller Bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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