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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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I mean it's a region wide blizzard.  NYC is on the fence, LI gets crushed, CT, MA, RI, Boston, PVD, Portsmouth.  The SW edge is a toss up...but everywhere else it's stay the course...feet of snow.

Horrible run-to-run consistency. Every run crushes CT/S NH/MA/RI, but those on the edge are getting flip flopped between 2ft and 6-10".

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Horrible run-to-run consistency. Every run crushes CT/S NH/MA/RI, but those on the edge are getting flip flopped between 2ft and 6-10".

NYC already has up to 6" from earlier today, so another 12" would bring some to 18" by itself, and that's doable with 12-1 ratios and 1" liquid. Obviously anywhere east of there is still in for a crushing regardless. 

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It was wildly inconsistent from last run and has many in the NYC area jumping off bridges. Jeez...

 

It's times like this I'm almost glad I'm so far away from it all now (reverse psychology :P)

 see below

 

100 miles within 12 hours?

 

Yes but that's a given.  It's not like it fit anywhere into the later capture ideas that are playing out for 2 days.  I mean it was instantly tossed.  This run is fine aside of the fact it is likely too slow to exit the low (IE the error/bias may still exist and this could still displace ENE at h 12 and h18 at which point it gets away from the best mechanism to make this a top 2 or 3 aka the RGEM etc.  Probably not because it seems like once the lows actually bomb out models are okay.

 

But I was speaking specifically of what it showed which was the blizzard everyone was anticipating.

 

NYC folks shouldn't be jumping off anything yet....best snows may be right on that edge but holy crap it's a tight w to e near the city and if any shifts were to continue ...I think the chance the 12z Euro scored a coup are about zero though, it appears it just didn't see some of the pieces somehow that helped get everything a bit further NE before the turn.  I mean...we're talking maybe 20 or 40 miles SW to NE....we're asking a lot to expect in this dynamic a situation any model will nail it.  Some of the issue may be that the band about to rotate into NYC is super intense...and as someone was just joking where it stops - the people to the left of it will be swinging from the rafters in the AM and probably end up even below the conservative forecasts while people just to the east get what was forecast or even more.

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NYC already has up to 6" from earlier today, so another 12" would bring some to 18" by itself, and that's doable with 12-1 ratios and 1" liquid. Obviously anywhere east of there is still in for a crushing regardless. 

Well aware. NYC was in that meso band for awhile. I'm talking more south of the city into E NJ.

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 see below

 

 

Yes but that's a given.  It's not like it fit anywhere into the later capture ideas that are playing out for 2 days.  I mean it was instantly tossed.  This run is fine aside of the fact it is likely too slow to exit the low (IE the error/bias may still exist and this could still displace ENE at h 12 and h18 at which point it gets away from the best mechanism to make this a top 2 or 3 aka the RGEM etc.  Probably not because it seems like once the lows actually bomb out models are okay.

 

But I was speaking specifically of what it showed which was the blizzard everyone was anticipating.

 

NYC folks shouldn't be jumping off anything yet....best snows may be right on that edge but holy crap it's a tight w to e near the city and if any shifts were to continue ...I think the chance the 12z Euro scored a coup are about zero though, it appears it just didn't see some of the pieces somehow that helped get everything a bit further NE before the turn.  I mean...we're talking maybe 20 or 40 miles SW to NE....we're asking a lot to expect in this dynamic a situation any model will nail it.  Some of the issue may be that the band about to rotate into NYC is super intense...and as someone was just joking where it stops - the people to the left of it will be swinging from the rafters in the AM and probably end up even below the conservative forecasts while people just to the east get what was forecast or even more.

These storms are always a nailbiter for NYC-Boxing Day was really the exception and wasn't even a classic Miller B like this one. 2/8/13 closed off and bombed just a hair too late and blew up over Long Island. 12/30/00 nailed everyone but rained on Long Island. This one I still have a good feeling about-the bands still have good momentum west and are already coming into E NJ. Nassau and Suffolk Counties are still in a very good spot. Obviously you guys are mostly laughing about all this but for Upton and Mt. Holly it's a hair-puller since these 40 mile differences impact perhaps millions of people. Philly I think is in big trouble for anything more than 4-6" at this point-Mt. Holly had them at 10-14" on the maps. 

 

This is how Miller B's that blow up from clippers always behave, notwithstanding exceptions like 12/30/00 and Feb 1978, but some probably bit too hard from NYC to PHL. 

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These storms are always a nailbiter for NYC-Boxing Day was really the exception and wasn't even a classic Miller B like this one. 2/8/13 closed off and bombed just a hair too late and blew up over Long Island. 12/30/00 nailed everyone but rained on Long Island. This one I still have a good feeling about-the bands still have good momentum west and are already coming into E NJ. Nassau and Suffolk Counties are still in a very good spot. Obviously you guys are mostly laughing about all this but for Upton and Mt. Holly it's a hair-puller since these 40 mile differences impact perhaps millions of people. Philly I think is in big trouble for anything more than 4-6" at this point-Mt. Holly had them at 10-14" on the maps. 

 

This is how Miller B's that blow up from clippers always behave, notwithstanding exceptions like 12/30/00 and Feb 1978, but some probably bit too hard from NYC to PHL. 

 

above my pay grade...but I think there's something with the new version of the Euro that just can't get the physics down on where these things are going to stall.  It's the same bias every single time and I've only noted it since the last big upgrade.  Same direction, multi-run starting at about 42-48 hours from the event whether it picks up the event  at 120 hours or 72...same drill.  Meanwhile RGEM seems to actually do fairly well at least this last 15 months being more progressive.  The others seem to offer no real consistency at all, and the GFS is ALWAYS most east.

 

 

 

Meanwhile 0z RGEM definitely east of the 12z early.  

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above my pay grade...but I think there's something with the new version of the Euro that just can't get the physics down on where these things are going to stall.  It's the same bias every single time and I've only noted it since the last big upgrade.  Same direction, multi-run starting at about 42-48 hours from the event whether it picks up the event  at 120 hours or 72...same drill.  Meanwhile RGEM seems to actually do fairly well at least this last 15 months being more progressive.  The others seem to offer no real consistency at all, and the GFS is ALWAYS most east.

 

 

 

Meanwhile 0z RGEM definitely east of the 12z early.  

You're a lot better at picking up on these little nuances than I am, which is why I definitely keep tuned to your posts, and you called the Euro as being overdone right away and it looks very much like you'll be right. I still regard the Euro quite highly but it definitely punked lots of people west of NYC. 

 

I'm done with models at this point-right now it's all about the obs and radar, which IMO look good at least to NYC and the NJ shore. Hopefully the band coming out of Suffolk County can sit over those guys and pivot for a while. I feel bad for those who get stuck west of that-amounts might be 1/3 of what occurs in that western band. That's always a doozy.

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You're a lot better at picking up on these little nuances than I am, which is why I definitely keep tuned to your posts, and you called the Euro as being overdone right away and it looks very much like you'll be right. I still regard the Euro quite highly but it definitely punked lots of people west of NYC. 

 

I'm done with models at this point-right now it's all about the obs and radar, which IMO look good at least to NYC and the NJ shore. Hopefully the band coming out of Suffolk County can sit over those guys and pivot for a while. I feel bad for those who get stuck west of that-amounts might be 1/3 of what occurs in that western band. That's always a doozy.

 

It's not anything I picked out from watching the last few days (other than the first jump it made occurred right in that 42 hour ish window where it seems to start).   If I hadn't suffered through those two non-events that only James and I cared about anyway...I wouldn't have been as persistent.   I really do believe late today and tonight it was really obvious the Euro may have been in error.  And the WV right now has me even spooked for "historic" here as it could well be winding down at lunch tomorrow.

 

I can't justify tossing the RGEM....the epic duration of this one is in doubt.

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It's not anything I picked out from watching the last few days (other than the first jump it made occurred right in that 42 hour ish window where it seems to start).   If I hadn't suffered through those two non-events that only James and I cared about anyway...I wouldn't have been as persistent.   I really do believe late today and tonight it was really obvious the Euro may have been in error.  And the WV right now has me even spooked for "historic" here as it could well be winding down at lunch tomorrow.

 

I can't justify tossing the RGEM....the epic duration of this one is in doubt.

Yeh, people seem to forget that the AO/NAO aren't in a good spot for a stalled out storm for days and the pattern is progressive overall.

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It's not anything I picked out from watching the last few days (other than the first jump it made occurred right in that 42 hour ish window where it seems to start).   If I hadn't suffered through those two non-events that only James and I cared about anyway...I wouldn't have been as persistent.   I really do believe late today and tonight it was really obvious the Euro may have been in error.  And the WV right now has me even spooked for "historic" here as it could well be winding down at lunch tomorrow.

 

I can't justify tossing the RGEM....the epic duration of this one is in doubt.

 

RGEM definitely bothers me a bit for the higher end totals...but I'm not convinced it is 100% right. If it was, that would be a pretty severe bust for the Euro and I don't think it will be a severe bust for the Euro...maybe a mild bust on the southwest and west side.

 

But we got a long ways to go.

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RGEM definitely bothers me a bit for the higher end totals...but I'm not convinced it is 100% right. If it was, that would be a pretty severe bust for the Euro and I don't think it will be a severe bust for the Euro...maybe a mild bust on the southwest and west side.

 

But we got a long ways to go.

Over by lunch time? No freakin way

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RGEM definitely bothers me a bit for the higher end totals...but I'm not convinced it is 100% right. If it was, that would be a pretty severe bust for the Euro and I don't think it will be a severe bust for the Euro...maybe a mild bust on the southwest and west side.

 

But we got a long ways to go.

 

I'm not sure people grasp that.  I was not even slated for more than -SN until midnight and it looks like what's pivoting in will be at or just ahead of that time frame. We'll see where it goes from there but current obs can sometimes deceive folks from the overall modeled solutions. 

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