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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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22z RAP not looking as favorable for NYC as 21z did.

 

Definitely beginning to see the pivot taking place, radar is also filling in.  I am still surprised by the fact that the returns down there are that far east of the NJ shoreline at this stage.  I anticipated the back edge of the broken precip would have started essentially right on the beaches per the Euro.  We're 40 minutes from verification -  again rough glance but it all looks a little east to me and not fast enough up near the Cape with this first band.

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Definitely beginning to see the pivot taking place, radar is also filling in.  I am still surprised by the fact that the returns down there are that far east of the NJ shoreline at this stage.  I anticipated the back edge of the broken precip would have started essentially right on the beaches per the Euro.  We're 40 minutes from verification -  again rough glance but it all looks a little east to me and not fast enough up near the Cape with this first band.

euro had about 0.15" QPF in the 18-00z period in the NYC area. Precip totals since 18z so far...

LGA 0.20"

EWR 0.12"

JFK 0.11"

Of course some of that is a meso weenie band.

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euro had about 0.15" QPF in the 18-00z period in the NYC area. Precip totals since 18z so far...

LGA 0.20"

EWR 0.12"

JFK 0.11"

Of course some of that is a meso weenie band.

 

Just looked as carefully as I care to at this point.  The GFS and Euro deviate immediately in these next 3 or so hours.  GFS starts to pivot, fails and lifts everything north never getting the precip back to the west.  The Euro obviously is able to do that.

 

My take?  And I didn't look very carefully but the Euro is too far west.  Probably not a ton, but it is I think.  However, there's clearly back building and a pivot underway.  I could be totally wrong but looks like maybe a 25 or 30 mile difference.

 

GFS does seem to be totally cracked out unless we suddenly see this pivot release.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Areas affected, ern long island / cape cod and portions of ern ma /
ri / sern ct

concerning, heavy snow

valid 262333Z - 270430Z

summary, heavy snowfall rates 1+ inches/hour will probably begin
between 01-03 UTC along the immediate coast of srn new england and
ern long island.

discussion, 23Z surface analysis shows an estimated 994-mb low 200
mi SE acy and surface temps below freezing along the srn new england
coast. water vapor imagery shows a negative-tilt mid-level trough
located over the carolinas and wrn atlantic early this evening.
very strong h5 height falls /180 m per 12 hr/ will likely occur
downstream during the next 12 hours to the SE of long island

 
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radar juicing up over West Central Long island and NYC and backing up  West  more noticeably to the south of Long island. Not that it means anything for here, just a observation to the SW 

 

the thing that is slightly interesting  is the vortex (on radar)  just east of NJ , maybe a radar trick http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=okx&loop=yes

 

doesn't show up as well on mt holly so I highly doubt it would be any sort of LP

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