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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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While that may be the case, 4 runs ago the Euro was giving all of NJ 3-4' of snow....and every run since it's chased NE.  IMO that will continue with the 0z tonight.  So in this case - the "delayed capture" really isn't an east tick.  It's the low getting further north before it's captured which ultimately leads to a little displacement NE each run.   

 

I may be totally wrong on this final call for a Euro shift at 0z, but if it comes to pass that'll be the third time it's tried to stall a low too far SW since March.  A developing bias to this new incarnation?  I'll throw down a round at Stowe that it'll adjust in some capacity N or E from the 12z.

 

Matters not for most, and if it wraps up enough it'll still toss back plenty of precip to the west and south.

 

And the Euro has bumped qpf numbers up here the last 3 runs as well to reflect it getting further north, We saw this same thing happen up here with Nemo

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Haha I reread a thread from Jan 2011 where that poster wxwatcher from SNH lost it on Messenger for all the east trend posts...because basically anyone west of ORH was becoming afraid of only seeing flurries with every RUC run that "ticked east." Then they got buried out in GC with a deform band later in the thread, so who knows.

In this case though I think the east trend has to be watched. There's too many meso models way east, though it would suck to see the King fall on it's face to the GFS or something lol.

 

You tell me...do you see a trend from 3 full runs ago?

 

YZkND9G.jpg

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While that may be the case, 4 runs ago the Euro was giving all of NJ 3-4' of snow....and every run since it's chased NE. IMO that will continue with the 0z tonight. So in this case - the "delayed capture" really isn't an east tick. It's the low getting further north before it's captured which ultimately leads to a little displacement NE each run.

I may be totally wrong on this final call for a Euro shift at 0z, but if it comes to pass that'll be the third time it's tried to stall a low too far SW since March. A developing bias to this new incarnation? I'll throw down a round at Stowe that it'll adjust in some capacity N or E from the 12z.

Matters not for most, and if it wraps up enough it'll still toss back plenty of precip to the west and south.

Oh I think you are right...wasn't a comment about your PBP but more that this seems to be a theme a lot. Models will show a west solution then within the final 12-24 hrs it keeps burping east. There must be something in the model algorithms that cause them to wrap these systems up too early, when in reality they take a little longer to really go to town.

The further north it gets helps me. If it could go NNE instead of NE, it's definitely helps up here.

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Oh I think you are right...wasn't a comment about your PBP but more that this seems to be a theme a lot. Models will show a west solution then within the final 12-24 hrs it keeps burping east. There must be something in the model algorithms that cause them to wrap these systems up too early, when in reality they take a little longer to really go to town.

The further north it gets helps me. If it could go NNE instead of NE, it's definitely helps up here.

 

Yeah, none of this is bad for any of us particularly.  I think the max jack the euro had near me was bogus, we will do best on the hopeful OES if the flow can stay aligned and it doesn't slip out/up too much.

 

I think it's an overestimation of the blocking...50/50 etc.  And it struggles to catch up.  GFS on the other hand weakens that too quickly and always ends up a bit too far/way too far east. 

 

RGEM/CMC have been I thought the best with these big stalled lows lately, will see how they do tonight.

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Look at this guys:  Look at two key features...a tight little spin just off the VA Capes...and the drying evident N and NNE east of it on a line towards Western LI.   Also note the growing area of moisture SE of the Cape that is actually escaping a bit far...but beginning to show the tell tale signs it's about to get slung more NW (develop from the south and move up over). 

 

The east models kind of almost allow the lobe to the east to get further north.  That's what it has done and notice the whacked out GFS was definitely further NW with the heavier QPF into MA/RI/CT this evening vs the Euro at the same panel.  That was noted for days as a fault/too slow on the Euro.  I really believe it's that feature...it helped to kick everything further NE as WXNISS noted more in line with the non-euro models.  Really just parsing words for the same old same old...same thing for 4 runs now with the capture on the 12z not accounting for how much moisture already got north.   Should bode well for some that were freaking over subsidence, or being on the north edge particularly north of Boston into NH and ME. 

 

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20150127&endTime=-1&duration=6

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I have not slept since Saturday night which was only five hours because of the craziest couple of days of my year at that convention so I really need to pace myself as I will now sleep until 2 AM or so.

Why do I have ~2" in 10+ Hours? I always freak when the beginning of the storm give so little. Death band is Certainly there though.

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I might have to take a nap to cool off my ocd....because I'm obsessing whether or not the euro will fail for the western part of the system. I'm torn.

 

take the 21h 12z Euro...shift it 25 or 40 miles NE.  That uber banding ends up in CT and W/C MA.   The evolution is fine, it's just too quick to bring it all together.  Should bode well for some that were worried..and everyone else similar.

 

The first death band is marching into CT no problems...you can see the pivot axis may be somewhere in SW CT now, versus SW of there as the Euro had.  Not a huge change..and very positive potentially for CT, parts of WMA and CMA.  That band is going to hit a wall in an hour or two..and just dump.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=okx&loop=yes

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