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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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radar juicing up over West Central Long island and NYC and backing up  West  more noticeably to the south of Long island. Not that it means anything for here, just a observation to the SW 

 

the thing that is slightly concerning is the low type feature just east of NJ , maybe a radar trick http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=okx&loop=yes

 

That's pretty much the Euro evolution.  It's def east or north a smidge though which could also just be a delay. 

 

Also notice the storms over the Delmarva diving SSW.  IMO and unless I'm missing something not well modeled by the Euro at all?  Or any model.

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That's pretty much the Euro evolution.  It's def east a smidge though which could also just be a delay. 

 

Also notice the storms over the Delmarva diving SSW.  IMO and unless I'm missing something not well modeled by the Euro at all?  Or any model.

 

I would pretty much expect the Euro to continue making the same ticks east it made at 0z and 12z. Small ones, but ticks nonetheless.

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Just getting out of work, will try to do some intense verification analysis of handling of vorticity lobes, SLP placement, and radar.

 

To summarize guidance outcomes, correct me if I missed something:

12z Euro + 12z NAM: both have 2 maxima, over western CT + eastern MA, with Euro being much further southwest into NYC

 

12z/18z RGEM: further east, with 18z basically putting deformation band over eastern MA

 

RAP/HRRR: ?

 

Not gonna even look at GFS, it dropped a turd before Feb 2013 too.

 

One thing at first glance on 18z RGEM vs. others... that intense lobe of vorticity much further north than anything depicted on RAP for 0z, and also not on Euro or NAM for 0z:

 

 

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I would pretty much expect the Euro to continue making the same ticks east it made at 0z and 12z. Small ones, but ticks nonetheless.

 

 see below

 

RGEM had it but further south.

 

This is killing me, I follow OES for 12 hours for 10 flakes, potential top 1 or 2 storms in my life and I cannot get away from work but:

 

I agree with all your comments above.  I'd kind of warned about that for a day or so - in previous cases where the Euro had issues with these types of systems it never caught up.  IMO when it involves primarily a 50/50 and that low is weakening on the models absent a true blue -NAO....this is what happens.  It just seems to want to wrap sooner than reality.

 

My take and this differs from some pros....GFS and RGEM had a feel for what's going on near the Delmarva but not quite.  Euro was mostly blind.  Euro was too far west and too slow.  We are seeing the wrap take place now but it's happening a bit further/later than the 12z Euro.   This is exactly what you said above JC and exactly expected.

 

Notice where the moisture is blossoming the most.  Way out near 70...the battle is being won there and the next few hours will determine how much gets west.  Very, very difficult forecast.  If I were James I'd be doing the happy dance re no rain...jmho.

 

g13.2015026.2315_US_wv.jpg

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My goodness.  I would not want to be a forecaster in Brookhaven or Albany..........starting to wonder if precip shield ever gets to them

Euro looks fine to me. Look at 5h and 7h on mesoanalysis. Once that closes off they will do very well. It also looks to be as if Eastern Mass is going to get absolutely shellacked judging by downstream radar.

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Just getting out of work, will try to do some intense verification analysis of handling of vorticity lobes, SLP placement, and radar.

 

To summarize guidance outcomes, correct me if I missed something:

12z Euro + 12z NAM: both have 2 maxima, over western CT + eastern MA, with Euro being much further southwest into NYC

 

12z/18z RGEM: further east, with 18z basically putting deformation band over eastern MA

 

RAP/HRRR: ?

 

Not gonna even look at GFS, it dropped a turd before Feb 2013 too.

 

One thing at first glance on 18z RGEM vs. others... that intense lobe of vorticity much further north than anything depicted on RAP for 0z, and also not on Euro or NAM for 0z:

 

attachicon.gifrgem_uv500_vort_ne_3.jpg

 

Looking at the "center to east" camp....in some manner they have the speedmax near the Delmarva.  Euro was very shy with that feature.  The models that are center to east leaning all use that to some degree to sling those features up on the east side (the northward movement along 70) at a more rapid pace vs the Euro.   Indeed you'll see some of the models are already closing a contour in the next few hours out there while the Euro waits a bit to organize everything and as WPC has noted for days - is SLOWER with the north progression of the low which allows for a further west wrap with the eventual capture.

 

A historic blizzard is on tap.  For those in subsidence zones based on the 12z Euro I wouldn't sweat it as IMO that model was definitely too far S&W with the evolution - I think it's very obvious right now.  I have no idea which model was most right and the reality of it is it doesn't matter for most.   It may keep James all snow and pummel the Cape more...and there could be less on the fringes as has been the trend.

 

But clearly you can see the thrust from about due SE of NYC...that point south is having a very hard time moving west which is now well behind the Euro maps.  The axis is going to be right over/near or just NE of the City.  NAM also appears to be well too far west, IMO.

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Euro looks fine to me. Look at 5h and 7h on mesoanalysis. Once that closes off they will do very well. It also looks to be as if Eastern Mass is going to get absolutely shellacked judging by downstream radar.

 

We'll agree to disagree on the Euro.  Doesn't matter for most and for some I think it's actually better in the sense that we should see the full bore moisture train right into SNE.  Can already see this is happening, some of these areas that were looking to get shorted by subsidence as bands setup further west...doubt that happens but who knows?   I bet somewhere between Ginxy and tolland is anoter max jack zone.... as this whole thing begins to pivot and firehose in.

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Looking at the "center to east" camp....in some manner they have the speedmax near the Delmarva.  Euro was very shy with that feature.  The models that are center to east leaning all use that to some degree to sling those features up on the east side (the northward movement along 70) at a more rapid pace vs the Euro.   Indeed you'll see some of the models are already closing a contour in the next few hours out there while the Euro waits a bit to organize everything and as WPC has noted for days - is SLOWER with the north progression of the low which allows for a further west wrap with the eventual capture.

 

A historic blizzard is on tap.  For those in subsidence zones based on the 12z Euro I wouldn't sweat it as IMO that model was definitely too far S&W with the evolution - I think it's very obvious right now.  I have no idea which model was most right and the reality of it is it doesn't matter for most.   It may keep James all snow and pummel the Cape more...and there could be less on the fringes as has been the trend.

 

But clearly you can see the thrust from about due SE of NYC...that point south is having a very hard time moving west which is now well behind the Euro maps.  The axis is going to be right over/near or just NE of the City.  NAM also appears to be well too far west, IMO.

 

Many a classic snowstorms for SNE involve the Messenger east trend posts.  No idea why it happens, but it happens often enough.  Always a tick east, tick east, tick east.  Wouldn't be a snowstorm without your analysis.

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Many a classic snowstorms for SNE involve the Messenger east trend posts.  No idea why it happens, but it happens often enough.  Always a tick east, tick east, tick east.  Wouldn't be a snowstorm without your analysis.

 

LOL--Messenger's 'in-storm' pbp freaks me out everytime.  I become convinced I'll only get flurries.

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We'll agree to disagree on the Euro.  Doesn't matter for most and for some I think it's actually better in the sense that we should see the full bore moisture train right into SNE.  Can already see this is happening, some of these areas that were looking to get shorted by subsidence as bands setup further west...doubt that happens but who knows?   I bet somewhere between Ginxy and tolland is anoter max jack zone.... as this whole thing begins to pivot and firehose in.

I think you're along the right track ..I still think though that we are going to see a rather expansive area..perhaps much wider than you'd expect of some big 20-24+ totals that could encompass much of SNE .. Instead of one of those 30 mile wide bands..But we'll see how it all plays out

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I think you're along the right track ..I still think though that we are going to see a rather expansive area..perhaps much wider than you'd expect of some big 20-24+ totals that could encompass much of SNE .. Instead of one of those 30 mile wide bands..But we'll see how it all plays out

so are you saying it is "maybe" trending south more? last night they (cnn/fox) was saying NYC could see 2-3ft? and now weather channel says 8-12 with blizzard cond. possible for nyc
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LOL--Messenger's 'in-storm' pbp freaks me out everytime. I become convinced I'll only get flurries.

Haha I reread a thread from Jan 2011 where that poster wxwatcher from SNH lost it on Messenger for all the east trend posts...because basically anyone west of ORH was becoming afraid of only seeing flurries with every RUC run that "ticked east." Then they got buried out in GC with a deform band later in the thread, so who knows.

In this case though I think the east trend has to be watched. There's too many meso models way east, though it would suck to see the King fall on it's face to the GFS or something lol.

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so are you saying it is "maybe" trending south more? last night they (cnn/fox) was saying NYC could see 2-3ft? and now weather channel says 8-12 with blizzard cond. possible for nyc

I'm not going to say anything about NYC because a few posters assured us their heavy snow looked great .

 

I just mean I think the Euro/Euro ens idea of a widespread regional crushing with a massive jack in Se MA..might actually be the way to think here.

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Many a classic snowstorms for SNE involve the Messenger east trend posts.  No idea why it happens, but it happens often enough.  Always a tick east, tick east, tick east.  Wouldn't be a snowstorm without your analysis.

 

While that may be the case, 4 runs ago the Euro was giving all of NJ 3-4' of snow....and every run since it's chased NE.  IMO that will continue with the 0z tonight.  So in this case - the "delayed capture" really isn't an east tick.  It's the low getting further north before it's captured which ultimately leads to a little displacement NE each run.   

 

I may be totally wrong on this final call for a Euro shift at 0z, but if it comes to pass that'll be the third time it's tried to stall a low too far SW since March.  A developing bias to this new incarnation?  I'll throw down a round at Stowe that it'll adjust in some capacity N or E from the 12z.

 

Matters not for most, and if it wraps up enough it'll still toss back plenty of precip to the west and south.

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