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Damage In Tolland

Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler

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Yeah, That is a very good hit, Do you have qpf numbers brian?

 

 

For this run.   I think at this point we have to once again assume it's struggling to ascertain the development and adjust this run, and our expectations accordingly.

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Talk about a coup for James way out there on the Cape

 

Starting to look like Boston metro does well because it's in the deformation band

 

The real blow comes between 6z and 12z... the dual low structure collapses on the east-most low, whereas at 12z it collapsed in the west-most low. And as Messenger discussed, less of a capture, the east-most low scoots out faster once it takes over.

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For this run.   I think at this point we have to once again assume it's struggling to ascertain the development and adjust this run, and our expectations accordingly.

 

Further east towards the RGEM?

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Euro caves to the GFS, not as dry, but a massive cave.

Biggest bust I've ever seen from it. Unthinkable a few years ago that the euro would do that.

 

Upton cut totals, they had no choice.

The heavy snow is struggling to get to the Hudson River. If anything they didn't cut back enough. Luckily NYC saw 5" from the initial bands this morning/afternoon, so 12-15" is still doable. A big snow event for sure, but nothing historic or crippling like was thrown around yesterday. Upton isn't going to come out good either, throwing out 24"+ totals was a very ballsy move by them and it's going to bite them when NYC might come in with half of those predictions. And Philly might come in with a minor nuisance event when this morning 12" was predicted. Big time bust from NYC west and south. 

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Talk about a coup for James way out there on the Cape

 

Starting to look like Boston metro does well because it's in the deformation band

 

The real blow comes between 6z and 12z... the dual low structure collapses on the east-most low, whereas at 12z it collapsed in the west-most low. And as Messenger discussed, less of a capture, the east-most low scoots out faster once it takes over.

 

the Euro is no longer infallible and has a particular issue with negative tilted east coast troughs/captures absent true -NAO. I would call it a clear bias at this point, there are enough instances since the upgrade to document.    It's 10 plus year dominance did a p diddy mind f&&& on people up an down the coast.  Still the best, but perfection is no longer guaranteed.   

 

Further east towards the RGEM?

 

Impossible to know,  but I would take whatever the Euro shows from this run right now for 12h, and adjust it based on the last 5-6 runs worth of trends.

 

I don't think the HRRR looks terrible, and I will say at this point I doubt widespread meanginful snow after lunch in EMA.  I think bands sure, but I think it'll continue possibly to be displaced ENE.

 

Also - was saying to steve and kevin earlier...I thought the jack zone may be in their triangle with Will.   Can see an explosively developing band there.  May not go far.  That could be a secondary jack that the HRRR etc are picking up on .

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Sorry to those to the west.....wouldn't want to be in their forums right now.

It sucks, but we all get screwjobbed once in awhile. They had no pity on us in feb 2010.

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Crush job at 18z. Full on blizzard conditions given the 900 mb wind speeds too.

Question is....do you buy it? If the RGEM goes anymore SE the BM will get the deformation.

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Stall is nowhere near what it was on 12z Euro.

 

Not only is SLP further east, the rapidity of exit is greater:

It's like 30 miles east at 18z Tuesday, then by 0z Wednesday it really starts to move away about 60 miles northeast.

Also, the spoiler low starts off southeast of the low we had on the 12z Euro, but eventually is much further northeast.

 

Upsetting for lots of folks I'm sure.

For eastern MA, hope we do well on a deformation band which now seems to be ours.

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Question is....do you buy it? If the RGEM goes anymore SE the BM will get the deformation.

 

2.5 km CMC is a bit further west, and close to the Euro. It's looking more and more like the deformation is favored just inland from the coast.

 

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Anyone have any thoughts on the unfortunate Nantucket/Vineyard dryslot? I have 8-9 inches and I think I'm gonna struggle to get over a foot because the radar returns to my south and east look weak.

 

Even though the storm may move out faster, you still have tons of time for more heavy bands to develop, I'd be shocked if you didn't get more than a foot if you have 9 inches already. The storm is still well to the south.

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