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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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yeah I agree...probably not much of a concern down this way.  for much of CT I went 18-24'' to start (but mentioned 24-36'' is possible) but before going ahead and going with those much higher totals 1) want to try and get an idea of where the heaviest banding traverses and 2) how does the banding act over time?  Also before going much higher want to really get a handle on the exact track and positioning of the 700/850 lows and how they mature over time.  

Although if this run is given any credence, it should be less of a concern everywhere.

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33 now. Cf briefly goes west of you but mainly stays right on the shoreline.

 

We will see the rest of the suite - but like I said I've had the rug pulled out from me twice with these "new" improved model runs being on the SW edge of developing bombs.   NAM just didn't get it together fast enough for some, that is the "trend" I expect we continue to see.  Could get close for some of us.

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Jay with Astro tides at 10 flooding will be reduced, currently surge values are 3 ft for the worst tide with 2 for the 2nd. Seas are expected 25-35 feet. Will be some modest flooding and severe erosion but not nearly as bad if tides were Astro high

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map&region=ne&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=&stn=

Any thoughts on Hull, MA? I trust your tide knowledge the most. I know that is not your geographic hood though
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It shifted east but I doubt it is that far when ground truth is measured in 36 hours.

 

It won't matter for most of us Jerry.  It's just the tuck isn't going to occur, I do think the Euro is wrong in being that amped.  I think the RGEM not being locked in with it is a huge red flag and the 18z RGEM doesn't look terribly different than the 0z NAM.

 

This is a biblical hit for eastern MA/RI/Cape.  Can't/won't speak about other areas but I'm glad I bought the generator, this is the big one and I am no longer worried at all about mixing of any significance here.

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People are really setting high expectations for this one.  The problem is when people take that high end of the forecast and just run with it.  Do I expect 30+ inches out of this?  No way.  Will I be dissapointed if less than a foot falls?  Maybe.  But all things considering with this season, I will be happy with whatever happens (as long as taint doesn't make it to my neck of the woods).

 

Folks really need to keep it all in persepective.  If the overnight runs reduce totals, I don't want to be in the way of the jumpers, but I would hope that people think rationally before deciding to take the dive off the Tobin, or grab the 3rd rail of the South Station bound train. 

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Man it's so insane to see that much snow being dumped on every run on every model over NE. Never thought I'd see 2 of the biggest storms ever in Boston in just 8 years.

 

I moved here in 2003.

 

I have done VERY well for snow in that time... which makes the approach of something like this hard to believe if only for that reason.

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6z-12z Tuesday the LP is basically moving directly north toward Cape Cod.

 

Just remember - there's a good chance we will still chase this thing east a smidge each run.  Let's see if the NAM is into the good drugs (I think it is somewhat because the 18z RGEM was east and I really think the RGEM is OFTEN THE ONE that signals the left hooks the most...sometimes far too much..with the Euro).

 

If the RGEM slams back west this run then great, but if it runs like the 18z or east that's a gigantic red flag to me that the OP Euro is too far west.   Again JMHO.

 

This is the big one for Taunton, Jerry, Kevin, Steve, RI Peeps, Will somehow will get 3-4' under a death band, mini-scooter better get is sleep because he's about to be used as a human yardstick for photo ops...it's just great stuff.

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I am actually surprised that BOX has my low total for this storm 21" and the high total noted as 33".  It just seems like some very large numbers to throw out there.

 

edit: earlier in the day the forecast totals were quite a bit lower.

I get what you're selling. It's hard to predict where the heaviest banding will set up. West of the CT river and up into the Berks always seem to do well no matter the forecast. The snow hole will be somewhere too. 

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