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Damage In Tolland

Storm Disco for Manitoba Mauler 01/26/27

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My guess is somewhat north and west of the 1978 maximum axis. NW RI, NE CT, ORH, to LWM 25-30 miles either side. But all depends on where bands set up. Maybe secondary max on Eastern slopes of Berks, if the storm is slightly west or does loup de loups. Ain't no one gonna get under a foot in this NWS region except maybe the outer Cape and Nantucket.

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OES saves us I think. This is why I'll be riding it out in Southie, not Andover. That and there is food in the fridge at my parents and not at school. :lol:

 

I've already resolved to work from home Tuesday at the least, where I have two pounds of boneless beef short ribs waiting to go into the slow cooker.

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Why do people keep mentioning Chartreuse? This is Chartreuse.

Lol it was a joke. A snow map was posted for yesterday's snow the 24-36 color bar was there. I made a post and said I was going to go out on the biggest limb of my life and predict we would see a 24-36 chartreuse map before the year was up. Of course me being color blind it was pointed out 24-36 was a purple pinky thingy. Now running joke but hey not a bad call eh?

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Ugh.  What a year to go to college in Oklahoma.  60's every day this week...  

 

I feel like BOX isn't quite on the banding bandwagon (so to speak) quite yet, which makes sense due to the bouncing about.  The widespread 24-36 must be them guessing at that screw zone.  But remembering Nemo, someone is going to pull 40+ out of this, with such banding and moisture.  I'd bet good money its somewhere on a line from ORH to Nashua, down to the CT coast.  Sheesh.

 

lol yup. My first semester I was extremely homesick for cold and snow. And then I played frisbee on a 70 degree day in the middle of January, and I was okay with it haha.

 

And taking the Oklahoma perspective on weather everywhere -- check out the SCP from the 15z SREF.

Can't upload for some reason, but just go check it out. Median > 12 in the Gulf of Maine at 15z Tuesday

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I've already resolved to work from home Tuesday at the least, where I have two pounds of boneless beef short ribs waiting to go into the slow cooker.

Very nice.

 

I'm most excited about the fact this major storm has it's height during the day. I feel like our recent biggies are often at night. 

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Any ideas on how intense flooding will be? Any storms to compare to?

The first high tide is 10,5 ft. The second is 9.5 ft. Last I saw the surge will be 3'+.  The Blizzard of 78 and 91 no name  had 16'+ tides (11' tide, 5' surge) so there should be only moderate flooding.

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And ... I think we are getting collectively (not you per se...) caught up in the drama of the thing. 

 

I mean really, half those numbers with winds gusting to 40 is paralyzing enough.  I'm just saying, if something less than histrionic verifies, I hope to god that those that like to visit the site won't have to wade through a festoon of meltdown meaninglessness... 

 

Also, guys, if you go and check out the satellite wv and radar loops in the TV, that is a ginormous rotational entity. It's a like a big meso it's torque is that obvious.  I really think that much rotational dynamic settling into an erstwhile amplifying longwave trough .. it really seems "backing off" solutions should be very suspect at this point in time.  I won't worry about these 18z solutions is all -

 

Add the 12z to those too.  We will probably continue to see wobble until after the point the convection fires which is when the feedback seems to mute...like 24 hours from now.

 

It's a beast

 

g13.2015025.2345_US_wv.jpg

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Lol it was a joke. A snow map was posted for yesterday's snow the 24-36 color bar was there. I made a post and said I was going to go out on the biggest limb of my life and predict we would see a 24-36 chartreuse map before the year was up. Of course me being color blind it was pointed out 24-36 was a purple pinky thingy. Now running joke but hey not a bad call eh?

 

That was good, Ask and you shall receive

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My guess for maxs are somewhat north and west of the 1978 axis--NE CT, NW RI, ORH, LWM--and maybe 20-30 miles either side. Secondary max on the east slopes of the Berks if storm ticks west or does loup de loups. We are all gonna do better than a foot in this NWS region except maybe the outer Cape and Nantucket

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Very nice.

 

I'm most excited about the fact this major storm has it's height during the day. I feel like our recent biggies are often at night. 

 

Day storms are better. I'm shirtless atm. 

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Pretty impressive forecast from the NWS...widespread 2 feet or greater for SNE.  They really had some great collaboration between the various offices though, overall pretty seamless transitions between WFOs, straight down through the NWS offices covering ME/NH/VT/NY/MA/RI/CT/NJ/PA.

 

forecast_zps190a42ef.jpg

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Pretty impressive forecast from the NWS...widespread 2 feet or greater for SNE. They really had some great collaboration between the various offices though, overall pretty seamless transitions between WFOs.

forecast_zps190a42ef.jpg

Wow

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Very nice.

 

I'm most excited about the fact this major storm has it's height during the day. I feel like our recent biggies are often at night. 

This. I can't remember the last big one that peaked during the day. Pulled an all-nighter with 2/8/13; ditto for 1/12/11, 12/20/09. Will be refreshing for sure. 

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My guess for maxs are somewhat north and west of the 1978 axis--NE CT, NW RI, ORH, LWM--and maybe 20-30 miles either side. Secondary max on the east slopes of the Berks if storm ticks west or does loup de loups. We are all gonna do better than a foot in this NWS region except maybe the outer Cape and Nantucket

thats pretty close to where 78 was, unless I get 4"qpf this ain't hitting 78 totals

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Pretty impressive forecast from the NWS...widespread 2 feet or greater for SNE.  They really had some great collaboration between the various offices though, overall pretty seamless transitions between WFOs.

 

forecast_zps190a42ef.jpg

 

I think they're worrying too much about contamination just to my west up to Rte 24, there should be a max zone right in there with OES contribution that's pretty epic.  Really only the Euro and some early other runs would introduce issues back that far...and I still think those extreme west solutions were bogus.

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lol yup. My first semester I was extremely homesick for cold and snow. And then I played frisbee on a 70 degree day in the middle of January, and I was okay with it haha.

 

And taking the Oklahoma perspective on weather everywhere -- check out the SCP from the 15z SREF.

Can't upload for some reason, but just go check it out. Median > 12 in the Gulf of Maine at 15z Tuesday

 

Excellent point.  Still sucks to miss such a biggie, but I'm sure April will make up for it :twister:

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15z SREF mean is

28" @ BOS

22" @ LGA

24" @ BDR

26" @ ISP

19" @ GON

 

25" @ OXC

28" @ BDL

21" @ IJD

26" @ CEF

18" @ PSF

 

24" @ ORE

24" @ ORH

26" @ FIT

25" @ SFZ

25" @ PVD

 

27" @ EWB

27" @ PYM

17" @ HYA

20" @ PVC

27" @ BVY

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You flying out of BDL on Tuesday? If so, I'd say you'll more than likely get cancelled. BDL stands to be a somewhat better position than us. I have higher confidence of 18"+ totals east of the CT River in MA and south of the CT/MA border than I do west or north of those points. 

 

The 00z suite should hopefully help to pin down the position of the low better. Is it south of ACK or MTK? Makes a big difference in these parts.

 

No--the flight's tomorrow.  I'm hoping I get bumped leaving me stranded.

 

Yup on that placement.....Do you mean MTP?  Give me that.  :)

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