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Storm Disco for Manitoba Mauler 01/26/27


Damage In Tolland

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No .. this is impractical guys. 

 

And also embarrassing if you really think maintaining an impractical course some how bears any on events. whether kidding or not -- 

 

I enjoy your thoughts a lot, but I would never forgive it if you started a new thread and something terrible happens with the system. Stay the course. 

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Good evening everyone...yes today's NWS forecasts were heavily weighted toward the 12Z NAM/ECMWF...no secret there if you read the WPC QPF discussion. Seeing 850 winds whose u-component was I think +6 SD's beyond the mean (to say nothing of a fetch from almost beyond Nova Scotia, something I have not seenGood evening everyone...yes today's NWS forecasts were heavily weighted toward the 12Z NAM/ECMWF...no secret there if you read the WPC QPF discussion. Seeing 850 winds whose u-component was I think +6 SD's beyond the mean (to say nothing of a fetch from almost beyond Nova Scotia, something I have not seen since Sandy) tends to make one think big on snowfall. My forecast of 24-30" (the graphics showing 24-36" are a little misleading) may be a little broad-brushed, and depends on where the most intense banding sets up. As usual I think it'll be west/north of model forecast and more along a line from Danbury to NYC than from Hartford to Huntington. Will probably be widespread 18-24" with a band of at least 24-30". GFS was totally discounted due to its more progressive solution...no loop-de-loop near or inside the benchmark late Mon night-Tue from a Miller B storm of this magnitude? C'mon now.

 

Met from Upton.

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Couple of thoughts nice map runaawayiceberg but there is going to be a secondary max somewhere to the NW. Berkshires to C NH?

If everything holds serve the Governor will declare a state of emergency and put up a travel ban for Tuesday. Years ago this probably would not have happened but in today's world it seems more likely especially with Blizzard warnings over such a large area.

I was 13 during the 1969 storm. Rt 128 was closed. Not plowed. Hundreds were stranded at the Howard Johnson's at Rt 16. No school for 5 days.

I know this storm is going to be intense but its a 980mb storm not a 965mb storm. Wonder if its being overplayed a bit? One of the big ones but not historical. We shall see....

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Couple of thoughts nice map runaawayiceberg but there is going to be a secondary max somewhere to the NW. Berkshires to C NH? If everything holds serve the Governor will declare a state of emergency and put up a travel ban for Tuesday. Years ago this probably would not have happened but in today's world it seems more likely especially with Blizzard warnings over such a large area. I was 13 during the 1969 storm. Rt 128 was closed. Not plowed. Hundreds were stranded at the Howard Johnson's at Rt 16. No school for 5 days. I know this storm is going to be intense but its a 980mb storm not a 965mb storm. Wonder if its being overplayed a bit? One of the big ones but not historical. We shall see....

It isn't all about the minimum central pressure, it's about the ambient pressure field.

How potent was the high in the '69 event, and where was it positioned??

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Couple of thoughts nice map runaawayiceberg but there is going to be a secondary max somewhere to the NW. Berkshires to C NH? If everything holds serve the Governor will declare a state of emergency and put up a travel ban for Tuesday. Years ago this probably would not have happened but in today's world it seems more likely especially with Blizzard warnings over such a large area. I was 13 during the 1969 storm. Rt 128 was closed. Not plowed. Hundreds were stranded at the Howard Johnson's at Rt 16. No school for 5 days. I know this storm is going to be intense but its a 980mb storm not a 965mb storm. Wonder if its being overplayed a bit? One of the big ones but not historical. We shall see....

 

 

Gene, 78 was something like 984.

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No--the flight's tomorrow.  I'm hoping I get bumped leaving me stranded.

 

Yup on that placement.....Do you mean MTP?  Give me that.  :)

 

Oops, yes I meant MTP. 

 

Volunteer yourself to get bumped, and if you're flying Delta there's a good chance the flight will be oversold. Delta does this all the time it seems.

 

Depending on the timing of your flight and the airline, there's a chance it could get preemptively cancelled as they try to get their aircraft out of harms way and rearrange crews and planes to minimize ripple effects. Late day flights have a better chance at being scrapped than early or midday. 

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I started the next thread anyway, seeing as I am sane ... and don't rely on irrational superstition that detracts from the value of all this.  Geesh...

 

as people wake from their primality in matters, feel free to venture on over to where it is soooo much easier to follow content... 

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There's going to going to be a subsidence zone from hell associated with the CCB...whoever has to deal with that is going to want to jump.    

I know....it's going to be near me, hopefully not over me.

 

Preach brother, I've been trying to explain this today as they all remember the storm Saturday had a similar pressure.

The Saturday event had zero high pressure.

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I started the next thread anyway, seeing as I am sane ... and don't rely on irrational superstition that detracts from the value of all this.  Geesh...

 

as people wake from their primality in matters, feel free to venture on over to where it is soooo much easier to follow content... 

 

It doesn't make it easier to follow....Actually, this thread is pretty easy to follow and packed with epicosity. 

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