superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The 18z GEFS mean is pretty wet. 0.50"+ makes it into SW NC, CLT, and then to about GSO on N/W. I can't get the 12z GEFS mean precip to work for some reason, but on the 06z GEFS, most of these places saw 0.10-0.25" and 0.50"+ was confined to the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Ok, I was only 6 when 1987 happened. Can people remind me what the fxcast was that day? I want to say it was just a chance of mixed rn/sn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Ok, I was only 6 when 1987 happened. Can people remind me what the fxcast was that day? I want to say it was just a chance of mixed rn/sn I know you're not asking about Atlanta. However, the reason I'm responding is that Lookout's favorite, Glenn Burns, actually somehow successfully predicted snow for the major ATL snowstorm of Jan. 1987 five days in advance. I still remember this clearly. Back then, he did seem to love snow fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Looking at 2m maps from the Euro, it does something really weird. It shoots the foothills up close to 50 while it keeps a cold pocket to the SE of Charlotte. Something fishy is going on there, so it'll be interesting to see what happens next run. Yep, it's clear that the models haven't worked out the thermal profiles yet. All I am interested in right now is the track of the surface low and the 850 low. Looks like a perfect track. Past events have lead us to believe that this would yield a substantial snowstorm if we can get the precip in here. IMBY, 850's at or below freezing with a northeast wind and 0.5 qpf is most likely going to result in some accumulating snow. How much is the question. I will take the Euro's track any day of the week and worry about the column profiles later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Looking at 2m maps from the Euro, it does something really weird. It shoots the foothills up close to 50 while it keeps a cold pocket to the SE of Charlotte. Something fishy is going on there, so it'll be interesting to see what happens next run. Looks like the Euro has some clearing going on by Saturday Afternoon over the foothills. It also has northwest winds which would imply downsloping which I think that model overdoes which is why it does so badly with arctic airmasses coming over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yep, it's clear that the models haven't worked out the thermal profiles yet. All I am interested in right now is the track of the surface low and the 850 low. Looks like a perfect track. Past events have lead us to believe that this would yield a substantial snowstorm if we can get the precip in here. IMBY, 850's at or below freezing with a northeast wind and 0.5 qpf is most likely going to result in some accumulating snow. How much is the question. I will take the Euro's track any day of the week and worry about the column profiles later.I'll second THAT! What concerns me most, i don't like being in the sweetspot...if you will, at this timeframe. Would like to see things down east look better toward RAE, then tick more nw as we get closer. I know, I know..wishcasting. But its served us right in years past. Guess we'll have to see what the "FAT LADY" sings tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 NAVGEM is still holding for some type of precipitation on Friday and Saturday with a geographically small cold blast to go with it. How accurate is the NAVGEM usually? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 NAVGEM is still holding for some type of precipitation on Friday and Saturday with a geographically small cold blast to go with it. How accurate is the NAVGEM usually? I would rather trust Euro, GPS, UK model, Canadian, and NAM before NAVGEM... However, it's hard to beat consistency from NAVGEM and the fact rest of models shifted somewhat toward it. It's weird from that model, but trend might be in someone's favor this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Ok, I was only 6 when 1987 happened. Can people remind me what the fxcast was that day? I want to say it was just a chance of mixed rn/sn For Charlotte, the NWS forecast was rain with the possibility of sleet mixed in (Jan 22, 1987 storm). 6-9 inches of snow later, it was the biggest bust on the plus side that I've experienced. I can't remember what my wife asks me to pick up at the grocery store, but I can remember weird stuff like that. I remember Gaston county being in a winter storm warning while Charlotte was not, so they basically missed the forecast by one county over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Ok, I was only 6 when 1987 happened. Can people remind me what the fxcast was that day? I want to say it was just a chance of mixed rn/sn Here in WS, NWS forecast was 3-6. Bastardi went out on a limb and forecasted what he thought which was 9-10, which is really risky. We ended up 12+, so they both busted but Bastardi was much closer to reality. Great storm, followed in 4 days by another 3-6. Will never forget 86-87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hey everyone! It's been a long time, but I have been really busy with work (moving from web design to outside sales), spending time with the girlfriend, and well, with work. Anyways, the pattern is finally looking the best it has looked in a long time. I was actually shocked when the 12z models trended so far westward with this system Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will be a problem for many areas south of I-85 regardless of the storm track, but it will still need to be monitored moving forward. The 0z and 12z tomorrow will be very important in helping to determine the eventual track of the storm. I am watching this system closely for my area and points northward. This is a classic system for the foothills and points northward to receive a big snow (ie. Dec 2009). Not saying this will happen, and more than likely it will not, but I am watching the models to see what happens. Another upper level disturbance brings the chance of snow early next week, but for a larger portion of the southeast. I hate even mentioning it since it would be driven by an upper level low (we all know they are nearly impossible to track 48 hours out, much less 7+ days); however, it is a chance. I believe we are setting up for some good chances of snow through the first week of February. The PNA remains favorable for the next 5-10 days, and the AO is going to remain negative to neutral. The NAO is positive, but only slightly. As long as the west coast ridge holds (through at least the mid part of next week), we will continue to have chances for wintry weather in the southeast United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 So is the Monday clipper , as modeled now, going into a miller B . At one point the low is in TN, then next frame , it jumps to off the Carolina coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Ok, I was only 6 when 1987 happened. Can people remind me what the fxcast was that day? I want to say it was just a chance of mixed rn/sn In the GSP, Anderson, and Gaffney area almost all forecasts called for rain with maybe a little snow mixed in. Snow was forecast basically NW of a line from Walhalla in SC to around Shelby NC. Only Charlie Gertz from WYFF correctly forecast the snow to cover the entire upstate area. We only got around 6 inches here though, because of a dry slot. Areas from the GSP metro up towards Hickory got much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 So is the Monday clipper , as modeled now, going into a miller B . At one point the low is in TN, then next frame , it jumps to off the Carolina coast? Yep, as modeled a weak low and upper low transitions to the coastline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 If the coastal solution ends up verefying, then Snow goose is gonna be the new weather prophet. He called it , go back several pages and look. Said there was no way that energy could go due east straight across the GOM, had to come north and look now it all the models, of course except one that will remain nameless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 JB says, Ohio Valley then jumps and develops off Hatteras! Which will bury the NE and we get NADA...... If it happens that way? This is Monday clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 JB says, Ohio Valley then jumps and develops off Hatteras! Which will bury the NE and we don't get NADA...... If it happens that way? This is Monday clipper.We don't get nada, so we get algo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 We don't get nada, so we get algo? lol we get nada, I hate clippers! Hardly ever do they produce here in the foothills.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 00z gfs is rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hey guys haven't posted in forever! I hope everyone is doing well. Looking at 0z 42hr frame 5h setup, looking like the southern vort is stronger this run with the northern vort sliding down through Wyoming trying to get close to interacting with one another. Let's see where this one goes folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Differences between 12z, 18z, and 0z isn't obvious so far through 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 A bit more phasing thru 84. That'll bring the precip further north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Wow how's it going sir? I concur precip field def expanded more northward but this still won't get it done this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 A bit more phasing thru 84. That'll bring the precip further north..Still no cold. Don't know how that will be rectified . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Precip definitely further north through hour 93! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yeah, not going to get it done this time around concerning the cold. Look like GFS is starting to lock in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yeah, not going to get it done this time around. Look like GFS is starting to lock in a bit. Huge step in right direction. We're sitting real pretty in WNC right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Huge step in right direction. We're sitting real pretty in WNC right now Yeah, I was a little behind y'all! Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Still no cold. Don't know how that will be rectified .Cold is track dependent and relies heavily on how deep and where this storm bombs. If any one of those variables is off its cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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