Lookout Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 540 line is in south GA and SC for the arrival and for the durtation of the clipper This is the system I've been most interesting in the last few days as it's not your normal, run of the mill clipper or situation. Sensibly, a lot of nc should see snow but for georgia and sc, I'm afraid low levels are still a problem. The gfs has had a very persistent and stubborn warm layer from 925mb to the surface here. Frustrating to say the least because it's so rare to get a clipper that strong this far south. in north carolina though, the 0c isotherm runs through the middle of the state. I won't say that's the dividing line because dynamics are likely to be quite intense but Depending on rates, dynamics, etc even southern areas near the sc border might have issues due to this aggravating near surface warm layer. Since this is a rather unique system though, i suspect much will change and there will be some surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I cannot believe that we have a Miller-A and a clipper on the models within a couple days of each other and I'm relegated to cheering for the clipper SMH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I cannot believe that we have a Miller-A and a clipper on the models within a couple days of each other and I'm relegated to cheering for the clipper SMH! I know, unreal our luck here in the SE!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nice clipper for western NC... I hope that comes to fruition, just as depicted on your snow map, but that has not been my experience with clippers in WNC. There should be a big gaping snow hole in the immediate lee of the Apps, not a bullseye. This is the system I've been most interesting in the last few days as it's not your normal, run of the mill clipper or situation. Sensibly, a lot of nc should see snow but for georgia and sc, I'm afraid low levels are still a problem. The gfs has had a very persistent and stubborn warm layer from 925mb to the surface here. Frustrating to say the least because it's so rare to get a clipper that strong this far south. in north carolina though, the 0c isotherm runs through the middle of the state. I won't say that's the dividing line because dynamics are likely to be quite intense but Depending on rates, dynamics, etc even southern areas near the sc border might have issues due to this aggravating near surface warm layer. Since this is a rather unique system though, i suspect much will change and there will be some surprises. What makes it different from other clippers, Lookout? I'm looking for reasons to believe this might actually produce snow rather than downsloping in the immediate lee of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Seems like the dec 09 storm trended colder i rememeber the NWS issuing warnings the night before with foot plus predictions, kinda came outa nowere but i had backed off the models too. But who knows its like throwin darts at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Wasn't the Jan, 20 2009 event a clipper? That gave 6 inches to raleigh IIRC. Gave Wilmington our first significant snow in 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Looks like the Canadian is not going to come out on time again. It's close to an hour late already. I don't know how they manage to have that happen so often. The GFS and Euro never run late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Sounds encouraging: GEFS mean has a 1002 SLP SE of OBX by ~50 to 100 miles at 102... heads NE after that out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Sounds encouraging: Nice track for you guys, maybe a little east of what you want but it's the GEFS. But, atleast the low is gone from the lakes and we a HP trying to sneak in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nice track for you guys, maybe a little east of what you want but it's the GEFS. But, atleast the low is gone from the lakes and we a HP trying to sneak in. Thanks. Is this dramatically different than the past few runs of the GEFS? I think our best bet is for the storm to crank and we have to rely on dynamic cooling. #straws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Wasn't the Jan, 20 2009 event a clipper? That gave 6 inches to raleigh IIRC. Gave Wilmington our first significant snow in 5 years. This is the type of set-up that can produce snow in all 100 counties of NC. Even if it is just a dusting in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Thanks. Is this dramatically different than the past few runs of the GEFS? I think our best bet is for the storm to crank and we have to rely on dynamic cooling. #straws Colder for western NC, when compared to 0z/6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Colder for western NC, when compared to 0z/6z run. So you're saying there's a chance? I need more straws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That clipper spins up a low at 850 over Pageland. Need it to dig just a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 DOC is on the stage...here we goooooooooooo will the quest for the #1 hit continue, and the king continues to lead the way, or will we boooooo it off the stage and send it to the land of waste where the GFS resides? ok, that was just silly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Here we go, the norther piece is already further west, and a smidge stronger, and the same for the southern piece but further east. This might be an even bigger run/more phasing this run..lets see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That clipper spins up a low at 850 over Pageland. Need it to dig just a little more. This one has been an interesting development. I'm keeping an eye on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That clipper spins up a low at 850 over Pageland. Need it to dig just a little more. Any chance we could get a Jan 2003 meso-low type of setup with Monday's clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Bundled up pretty nicely at hour 54 over SE corner of the 4 corners. Nice little snow event for Panhandle and OK Looks like its a bit colder at 850 out there, and getting very close to DFW. Looks some snow *if cold enough at 2m* over into central and southern AR. ***More NEU*** tilted already vs 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 sfc low a bit further north at 72 hrs compared to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 and then FLOOD of warm air...0c line at 850 by time the qpf gets anywhere close to the SE is already pushed to memphis and Nashville with virtually NO qpf up that way. by 12z FRI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 what a freakin' blowtorch at 850...amazing how we went from -2 to -4c days ago, to now showing +4 to +8 hahahah WOW...just freaking WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 and then FLOOD of warm air...0c line at 850 by time the qpf gets anywhere close to the SE is already pushed to memphis and Nashville with virtually NO qpf up that way. by 12z FRI yes, 0 line is well up into VA by 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12z ECMWF = dagger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 .there may be**** a very **BRIEF** window for 12z sat am from HSV to just se of BNA to TYS and the mountains **IF** 2m temps are ok, I haven't looked. 850's go briefly below freezing in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 might be a rain to snow event for wesr NC/ east TN as the low blows up and wraps moisture around the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 850 temps on the Euro are about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday's 12z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Even DCA is struggling to stay snow this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Do we want the clipper tracking that far north of us? Looks like a great event for the NE. NC mountains get some snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Thanks chris!! How's that clipper look Monday? Jumps to the coast too soon and dries up as the coastal takes hold and bolts outta there. Good snow for the apps however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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