AvantHiatus Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 CO2 levels have gone up and down before, so why is this time different? I understand that the current CO2 levels are not 100% natural, but who's to say they won't naturally go back down? Only time will tell.. Why would they go down in a timeframe that people alive today care about? Besides the system becomes a self-sustaining process when you reach thresholds like 450 ppm. There is simply no going back from that. Would take at least 150k years to return to holocene climate without geoengineering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Glad to see I am on the right side of that tight gradient for the Sunday event. Whew, I was a tad worried I would miss out on my heavy rain. 18z GFS lookin good for here. 1"+. Stoked. .01 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 .01 here. If it starts early enough I may see a few mangled wet flakes or a sleet pellet. Shame you are gonna miss out on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 If it starts early enough I may see a few mangled wet flakes or a sleet pellet. Shame you are gonna miss out on this event. All joking aside I'm wondering if this system on Sunday is what is changing the entire look for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 All joking aside I'm wondering if this system on Sunday is what is changing the entire look for next week.Probably part of it. Santabomb was modeled to form in a similar way and ended up underperforming/not becoming a 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I miss Santabomb. Got a lot of mileage out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It was #santafail, but Ian became famous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 .01 here. Most of that could be snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Steady yall...steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Steady yall...steady BAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 All joking aside I'm wondering if this system on Sunday is what is changing the entire look for next week. This is my storm I claimed it as a possible "surprise" event. Its low prob, but bears watching as it has trended wetter, and with colder air moving in, if it gets its act together a bit sooner, gets precip further inland, and holds on a bit longer, there could be some snow on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I am not brave enough to post this in anything but banter image lags -hit refresh http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015011618/gfs_apcpn_us_40.png loop http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2015011618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=400 If it matters to anyone here.... there was a E PAC NOAA- winter flight last evening so I would think that data was ingested by the GFS the last few runs http://www.tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=ep&nontasked=2015 talk about the hole in the doughnut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I've decided this is the night to start learning Python. Painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I've decided this is the night to start learning Python. Painful. Not sue what you mean, but here is a classic... https://www.youtube.com/user/MontyPython Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Glad to see I am on the right side of that tight gradient for the Sunday event. Whew, I was a tad worried I would miss out on my heavy rain. 18z GFS lookin good for here. 1"+. Stoked. GFS seems to be a soaker along the western shore too. High fives! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I've decided this is the night to start learning Python. Painful. You wild party animal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I think he means Python programming not Python, Monty. (sadly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 You wild party animal. It's getting crazy here. I should be able to put together a patch of text in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 The new GFS is so damn inconsistent. It doesn't trend, it just jumps wildly all over the damn place. I really miss the old GFS. At least when it was wrong, you knew what direction it would trend with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I was once a comp sci/engineering major. Those were dark days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I think he means Python programming not Python, Monty. (sadly) Monty Python is always worth a good laugh! As for the programming, not sure about that one as I've never used it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 It's getting crazy here. I should be able to put together a patch of text in a few weeks. Oh man, I don't know how you fit all that champagne into one limo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I'm guessing the 00Z GFS looks like s-h-i-t-e, or else blah otherwise, as there's been no discussion whatsoever in the medium range thread. ETA: And...that would be correct! GFS with the whiffff (said in a Dan Patrick voice). That once nice storm looks like it is so far south now that the Hurricane Center might have to give it a name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 One day there will be a model that uses Artificial Intelligence to improve itself over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Besides the system becomes a self-sustaining process when you reach thresholds like 450 ppm. There is simply no going back from that. If that were the case, Earth would've followed the route Venus took a long time ago. Eventually, the intercepted frequencies will be fully saturated, hence the logarithmic nature of radiative forcing in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I'm guessing the 00Z GFS looks like s-h-i-t-e, or else blah otherwise, as there's been no discussion whatsoever in the medium range thread. ETA: And...that would be correct! GFS with the whiffff (said in a Dan Patrick voice). That once nice storm looks like it is so far south now that the Hurricane Center might have to give it a name. Would probably extrapolate to a day 17-18 HECS...la la lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 If that were the case, Earth would've followed the route Venus took a long time ago. Eventually, the intercepted frequencies will be fully saturated, hence the logarithmic nature of radiative forcing in the long run. Good derailment. Co2 tends to stabilize at certain points. The greenhouse range is 450-1550ppm. We are not even living in a 400ppm climate due to lag as you point out. Alas, the difference between greenhouse and icehouse is immense and you are either in one or the other at any given point, hence expecting abrupt climate change at some point down the road. You may of thought it felt like Venus if you were around 55 million years ago, of course without the extreme barometric pressure. The worst regions would be like combining Phoenix with Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 lol climate change talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 lol climate change talk. As they say, don't shoot the messenger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Good derailment. Co2 tends to stabilize at certain points. The greenhouse range is 450-1550ppm. We are not even living in a 400ppm climate due to lag as you point out. Alas, the difference between greenhouse and icehouse is immense and you are either in one or the other at any given point, hence expecting abrupt climate change at some point down the road. The icehouse/greenhouse distinction simply refers to the presence or absence of polar ice caps. It's too early to say if/when AGW will push us into another greenhouse climate regimen, though most of the recent literature puts ECS @ 2.5-3.5C per doubling, which is bad enough. That said, we've seen greenhouse climates w/ CO^2 below 350ppm, and we've seen full blown ice ages w/ CO^2 above 2000ppm. A lot of factors go into the longer term climate changes, and in most cases it's a product of overlapping forcings/harmonics. There's a lot of paleoclimate literature out there suggesting that lower frequency forcings promote the most significant systematic responses. The ice age cycle is a good example of this..there's no change in the amount of solar radiation hitting Earth..it's merely a tiny redistribution, and it's enough to throw the system into and out of ice ages in extremely rapid fashion. These forcings are tiny..decade-to-decade shifts in forcings/circulations are greater than these minute redistributions. Difference is, they're higher frequency phenomenon, and the system is an inertia-laden fluid. /endrant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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