jamesnichols89 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Dendrite, I have learned my ways with both the NAM and SREFs, but there are times where they are correct and start a new trend of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 If the gfs and euro come in with nothing tonight, i think its over. The sref and Nam mean virtually nothing, other than this threat isn't 100% dead yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Please stop James. Everyone knows the NAM's accuracy in winter. This is a seasoned group many of which can take you to school on. You have conveyed a point and noted. NAM is 99.9% wrong at this time-frame. A blind squirrel that finds his nut type deal, don't become the NUT. I think there is a better chance of a widespread snow event occurring between the 5th-10th. When you start questioning and calling out learned individuals you only diminish your credibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I'm not questioning any one, or I'm not questioning a met who has the degree. I'm just questioning the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Op GFS unsurprisingly looks nothing like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I'm not questioning any one, or I'm not questioning a met who has the degree. I'm just questioning the models. Not the thread for it. Scott in making this thread I think is spot on. A possible pattern change, that's all. I think he's stated on every other post not a snow forecast. I'm not being critical in fact I love your exuberance and in many cases just what the board needs given at right time and conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Dendrite, I have learned my ways with both the NAM and SREFs, but there are times where they are correct and start a new trend of model runs. Ya its better to Cite them after the fact. Otherwise you will end up crying wolf 80-90% of the time. We get it , the nam is bullish. I would set my alarm for 530 and chat rev kev up about this trend, chances are he will bite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Oh man, people have gotta let 12/30 go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 12/30 is dead on the gfs and para OP runs. Nothing of meaning until about the 3rd or 4th of the month either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Won't is deterministic and dangerous to assert. May not would have been better. Nothing dangerous about it. New Years will be as brown as Christmas was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 How about we close this thread/chapter of winter 2014 and focus on 2015. December is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 How about we close this thread/chapter of winter 2014 and focus on 2015. December is over.Happy New Year I missed the ball drop,dammit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 For those holding out hope, the euro is nada for 29-30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Happy New Year I missed the ball drop,dammitSteve, cmon....this year is meteorologically over. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I think there is still a chance for snow, 00z GFS shows 1" of snow falling, which is something. I will take 1" at this point, I just want to see snow on the ground at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 After reading this topic, clearly it's time to unearth this oldie ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Hello all, as I scroll thru this thread I feel your pain as well. I do have a feeling Jan will produce snow ..we need a good old fashioned I95 special to make everyone on east coast happy ..time will tell .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Lava rock is our latest Debbie. Methinks NYD will feel plenty wintry. Will is also deterministic btwStill thinking snow free NYD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 After reading this topic, clearly it's time to unearth this oldie ... That one is too funny, Eric. And, I think it's really appropriate. You probably could have even resurrected it a week ago. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Nicely done by BOX Sad to see 2011-2012 mentioned in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The Euro does give credence to the idea that this has SWFE potential. I personally am leaning towards a Miller B and at least an initial period of some overrunning warm air advection wintry precip with the initial cold air mass in place but its a looooooooooong way's off. Tell me about it. Outside of the general pattern, we can't even get individual systems to look consistent from one run to the next. I hope to have egg on my face when this season is over, but I am berry, berry concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 This thread is dead to me bye Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I suspect i need to send you my pic. Hope you are well Eric and enjoying the opportunity for nice hikes that our barren but always beautiful landscape is giving us. After reading this topic, clearly it's time to unearth this oldie ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Nicely done by BOX Sad to see 2011-2012 mentioned in there The only relevance that study has at all is how many of those years were ENSO state like we have now strength wise and location. Other than that..that's a completely worthless study Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I think it is a stretch to call it a study. Just a look at seasonal totals for comparison. We do it all the time on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I suspect i need to send you my pic. Hope you are well Eric and enjoying the opportunity for nice hikes that our barren but always beautiful landscape is giving us. Doing very well, Mark I enjoy whatever weather we have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Tell me about it. Outside of the general pattern, we can't even get individual systems to look consistent from one run to the next. I hope to have egg on my face when this season is over, but I am berry, berry concerned. Time will tell its still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 LOL great video thanks.see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Happy New Year I missed the ball drop,dammit Lol. Dude, I'm an optimist but December is over. It's the 27th, not like it's the 15th and I'm calling it a game. Let's move on to Jan, much better times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I just don't think we are very good at this yet. It's difficult to pin down longwave features beyond 5 days or so with a high degree of skill. And then the small-scale variations really determine regional weather. I think the point that was trying to be conveyed is the first is the probabilistic part, and the second is the deterministic part. For the small scale we have to wait until 96-72 hours to really begin to gain confidence and produce a deterministic forecast with some skill. However, those longwave features can often be forecast with some skill beyond day 7 as long as you view it in a probabilistic sense. Longwaves give you chances, shortwaves drive the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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